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Mild winter weather, strong supply prompt slashed natural gas prices

Warm temperatures, record high gas supply and higher storage projections send natural gas prices tumbling

byEnverus

CALGARY, Alberta (February 1, 2023) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released its latest quarterly FundamentalEdge report focused on global drivers for oil and gas prices in 2023, the five-year oil and gas supply and demand outlook, as well as price forecasts.

“Unseasonably warm weather, record high supply and delays to the Freeport LNG restart inflated our end-of-winter natural gas storage estimate. This higher storage projection worsens the oversupply already expected for midyear, pushing our summer price forecast down by as much as $1/MMBtu from previous outlooks,” said Bill Farren-Price, director of EIR.

Meanwhile, oil prices are expected to rise on tighter balances in the year ahead. “We expect rising oil demand in the second half of 2023 to spark inventory draws and higher prices, with a price call for Q4 an estimated $20-$30/bbl above the current forward strip,” Farren-Price added.

Key takeaways from the report:

  • Bullish oil price outlook is driven by anemic supply growth and moderate projected demand.
  • The Permian Basin will drive the most global oil supply growth, however, we expect supply will struggle to offset Russian losses and OPEC will backstop with fresh cuts if Brent prices fall below $70/bbl.
  • Gas balances have a different story as we forecast sub-$3 NYMEX in 2023 supported by record warm winter weather and strong U.S. gas supply.

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus’ expert analysts.

About Enverus
Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS platform, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 98% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 35,000 suppliers. Our platform, with intelligent connections, drives more efficient production and distribution, capital allocation, renewable energy development, investment and sourcing, and our experienced industry experts support our customers through thought leadership, consulting and technology innovations. We provide intelligence across the energy ecosystem: renewables, oil and gas, financial institutions, and power and utilities, with more than 6,000 customers in 50 countries. Learn more at Enverus.com.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters. Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser.

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

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