CALGARY, Alberta (Aug. 4, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has released its latest Fundamental Edge report, maintaining its Brent oil price forecast at $100/bbl across the second half of 2026 and 2027.
EIR finds that global oil markets remain structurally tight despite recent price volatility. OECD commercial inventories are projected to fall toward a 20-year low in the fourth quarter of 2026, when EIR expects the market to reach its tightest point. Balances are forecast to draw sharply through 2026 before shifting to modest builds beginning in the first quarter of 2027.
The outlook also reflects recovering Chinese crude demand and continued disruption risk at two critical maritime chokepoints. China’s crude imports fell to approximately 7.2 MMbbl/d in June, down about 41% year over year, as the country relied on stockpiles, refinery run cuts and fuel-export restrictions. EIR expects the import call to return as refiners increase purchases and reserve rebuilding resumes. Meanwhile, the report models Strait of Hormuz throughput recovering to 95% of its roughly 20 MMbbl/d prewar baseline by year-end 2026, while warning that disruption at Bab el-Mandeb could further constrain regional export routes and add upside oil-price risk.
“Oil markets remain vulnerable despite recent volatility. Inventories are approaching historically low levels, Chinese crude demand is expected to recover, and risks around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb continue to threaten supply. Together, those factors support our $100-per-barrel Brent outlook through the second half of 2026 and 2027,” said Al Salazar, report author and director at EIR.
Key takeaways:
- EIR maintains a Brent oil price forecast of $100/bbl for the second half of 2026 and 2027, with WTI expected to trade approximately $5/bbl lower.
- OECD commercial inventories are projected to decline toward a 20-year low in the fourth quarter of 2026.
- EIR models Strait of Hormuz throughput recovering to 95% of the approximately 20 MMbbl/d prewar baseline by year-end 2026.
- Chinese crude imports fell to approximately 7.2 MMbbl/d in June, down about 41% year over year, but EIR expects import demand to recover as reserve rebuilding resumes.
- A disruption at Bab el-Mandeb could threaten a key Red Sea export route and create additional upside risk for global oil prices.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE™.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
