CALGARY, Alberta (Aug. 11, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, is releasing a new report forecasting that 25.5 GW of demand from new U.S. industrial facilities will be served by behind-the-meter (BTM) generation from 2026-2030.
Data centers are the primary driver of that growth, accounting for 22.5 GW, or 88%, of forecast BTM industrial demand. That represents approximately 36% of all U.S. data center capacity additions during the period. Demand is concentrated in regions where grid constraints are particularly acute, with PJM at 7.5 GW and ERCOT at 5.0 GW together accounting for nearly half of projected BTM demand.
The urgency to bring new data center capacity online is also influencing which generation technologies are selected. EIR forecasts that serving industrial BTM demand will require 31.6 GW of generation capacity, including 29.6 GW of gas-fired capacity. Reciprocating engines, small/medium-frame turbines and fuel cells account for 61% of projected gas-fired BTM capacity, reflecting their ability to reach commercial operation in approximately 18-24 months, compared with up to 80 months for a large-frame combined-cycle plant.
That speed advantage is reinforced by the modular nature of these technologies. Reciprocating engines and fuel cells can achieve comparable reliability with generation overbuild factors as low as 1.1x, compared with roughly 1.5x for large-frame plants. EIR finds that the combination of faster deployment, lower capital costs and reduced overbuild requirements makes modular technologies the preferred option for most new BTM projects.
“Data centers are the clear driver of behind-the-meter generation growth in our forecast, and their need to secure reliable power quickly is shaping what gets built. As grid interconnection timelines lengthen, technologies that can be deployed in roughly 18-24 months have a significant timing advantage for projects seeking to bring new capacity online,” said Alex Nevokshonoff, senior analyst at EIR.
Key takeaways:
- EIR forecasts 25.5 GW of demand from new industrial facilities will be served by BTM generation from 2026-30.
- Data centers account for 22.5 GW, or 88%, of the total, representing approximately 36% of all U.S. data center capacity additions during the period.
- Meeting that demand requires 31.6 GW of BTM generation, including 29.6 GW of gas-fired capacity.
- Reciprocating engines, small/medium-frame turbines and fuel cells account for 61% of gas-fired BTM capacity, contributing 7.1 GW, 6.2 GW and 4.8 GW, respectively.
- These faster-to-deploy technologies typically reach commercial operation in 18-24 months, versus up to 80 months for a large-frame combined-cycle plant.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE™.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
