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Brent crude is hovering near $100 per barrel, equity markets are at all-time highs and a peace proposal over the Strait of Hormuz has already knocked $10 off the price of crude in a single session. Yet the fundamental supply picture has not changed, and the disconnect between market pricing and physical risk is one of the most important signals we are watching right now. At the Enverus EVOLVE conference in Houston in early May, we met with U.S. Assistant Energy Secretary Kyle Haustveit to share our read on what the crisis means for global supply and why Canada is in a uniquely powerful position to act.
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The Market Is Fading the Crisis. We Think That Is a Mistake.
Brent crude near $100/barrel sounds elevated until you compare it against where the energy community expects prices to go. The forecast range we heard most often at the conference was $150 to $180 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz disruption escalates materially. The gap between today’s price and that range is not evidence that the risk has passed; it is evidence that the market is choosing to fade it. Equity markets reinforcing that view by reaching all-time highs only adds to the cognitive dissonance.
The cleaner signal is in physical inventories. We received reports recently of another substantial stock draw, which is consistent with a market running tighter than suggested by headlines.
When stock draws and flat-to-rising prices coexist, it typically means demand is absorbing supply faster than is being priced in. Our read is that the market is anchoring on diplomatic noise rather than physical flows, and that is where the mispricing sits.
Supply Guardrails Are Quietly Eroding
Two developments deserve more attention than they are getting. First, the United Arab Emirates has left OPEC, introducing real uncertainty about the cohesion of the group’s production framework going forward. Second, credible concerns exist that OPEC spare capacity could face material challenges returning online in a post-conflict scenario. These are structural constraints, not short-cycle inventory adjustments, and they compound the stock-and-flow problem we already observe.
As a result, a geopolitical premium is likely to be baked into oil for some time, even after the current Strait of Hormuz standoff resolves. Countries that held minimal strategic reserves during this period will move aggressively to rebuild security of supply. That means forward demand for physical barrels will be higher, and producers with exportable surplus are in a structurally stronger negotiating position than they were 12 months ago.
Iran, Enrichment and the Feedback Loop Nobody Wants
The core policy question circulating in Houston is how President Trump’s government balances its energy affordability mandate against the hard reality that the Strait remains largely closed. The Assistant Energy Secretary is aware that $100 Brent is inflationary, and prices materially above that would apply significant pressure to the broader U.S. economic narrative going into the summer driving season. That tension is real. That said, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.
What the market may be underweighting is the asymmetry here. If a durable ceasefire agreement is reached, prices ease and producers absorb some margin compression. If negotiations collapse, the strait’s disruption is prolonged, the path to $150 becomes much shorter. The peace proposal that briefly pulled $10 off the price illustrates how sensitive markets are to headline flow, but it also shows how quickly that move can reverse if the underlying situation does not resolve. We believe the market is priced for a soft landing, one that is not yet assured in our view.
Canadian Energy Is Having Its Moment. The Window to Act Is Now.
The sentiment in Houston toward Canadian energy was notably constructive. Shell’s acquisition of ARC Resources, Enbridge’s expansion of Sunrise pipeline capacity, the reauthorization of Enbridge approvals and the presidential permit for the Bridger pipeline collectively signal that, despite the political volatility of the past 18 months, Canadian barrels remain deeply welcome in the U.S. market. These are not minor deals. They represent a sustained and material commitment to North American supply integration at a time when the rest of the world is scrambling for secure energy.
Our view is that Prime Minister Mark Carney and the premiers, including Alberta’s Danielle Smith, have an opening that is as clear as it has been in a generation. Canada has the resource, the infrastructure momentum and now the geopolitical context to make the case for accelerated energy project approvals. The Hormuz crisis has done what years of advocacy could not: It has made energy security the dominant frame for every conversation in the room. That frame favors Canada, but only if the institutional will to act matches the opportunity in front of it.
The Case for West Coast Optionality Remains Intact
Even with expanded north-south pipeline capacity to the U.S., the case for a second West Coast pipeline route remains strong. Asian energy demand is persistently underestimated in our forecasting and, frankly, in most industry models. Every cycle, we revise consumption figures higher for the region. The structural drivers of that demand, mainly industrialization, population growth and now AI-driven data center expansion, are not going away. Another West Coast route gives Canadian producers access to that demand directly, without relying entirely on the U.S. as the predominant buyer.
The post-conflict environment in the Strait of Hormuz will also reshape procurement strategies across Asia. Countries exposed to shortages during this period will seek to diversify their supply sources, creating durable demand for reliable non-Middle Eastern barrels. Optionality in export routing is not a luxury; in the current environment, it is a risk management imperative. We would argue there has never been a stronger fundamental case for completing West Coast infrastructure than there is today.
Key Takeaways:
Why is Brent near $100 if the energy community expects prices between $150 and $180?
The gap reflects a market that is currently pricing diplomatic hope rather than physical fundamentals. Stock draws are accelerating, OPEC’s structural cohesion is under pressure following the UAE’s exit, and spare capacity concerns are real. We believe the market is anchored on the peace proposal narrative rather than on the underlying stock-and-flow data, which points to a tighter supply position than current prices imply.
What factors are preventing a more immediate price response to the Strait of Hormuz crisis?
Three factors are doing the most work: equity market resilience at all-time highs signals broader demand destruction is not yet priced in; the U.S. administration’s stated focus on energy affordability is creating a policy signal that dampens upward price expectations; and short-term diplomatic activity, including the current peace proposal, gives the market a reason to stay cautious about chasing upside. None of these factors resolve the physical tightness we are observing, but they are sufficient to keep prices from moving aggressively higher in the near term.
Why does Canadian energy infrastructure remain a priority even as north-south pipeline capacity grows?
Because buyer concentration is itself a risk. Expanded capacity to the U.S. is a net positive, but it does not resolve Canada’s exposure to a single counterparty. Asian demand has consistently surprised to the upside in our models, and the structural appetite for secure non-Middle Eastern supply will only intensify as the Hormuz situation plays out. A second West Coast export route transforms Canada from a price-taker in the North American market into a price-setter with genuine global optionality. That distinction will matter more, not less, as global supply guardrails erode.
About Enverus Intelligence® | Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macro-economic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies, and capital providers worldwide. See additional disclosures here.
CALGARY, Alberta (May 20, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has released its latest report, Global Gas and LNG | Qatari Outage Fixes Oversupply, examining the long-term implications of the Qatar LNG outage and confirming the damage to roughly 17% of Qatar’s export capacity.
EIR’s forecast indicates the global LNG market will move into a supply deficit of approximately 8 Bcf/d in 2026, with shortages persisting through the end of the decade as Qatari capacity recovery and expansion projects are delayed.
According to EIR, the removal of low-cost Qatari LNG from global markets creates sustained competition between Europe and Asia for spot cargoes while reinforcing the strategic advantage of Pacific-facing LNG export projects in Canada and Mexico. The report also concludes that Asian markets with significant coal-switching flexibility are better positioned to absorb supply disruptions than markets lacking fuel-switching alternatives.
“The outage materially alters the global LNG balance by removing a significant source of low-cost supply during a period when export capacity elsewhere is already largely utilized. The resulting competition for marginal LNG cargoes is expected to keep global natural gas prices elevated while increasing the strategic value of supply diversification and Pacific-facing export infrastructure,” said Josephine Mills, report author and senior analyst at Enverus Intelligence Research.
Key takeaways:
EIR forecasts a global gas supply shortage of approximately 8 Bcf/d in 2026, reversing its prior expectation for near-market balance.
Roughly 2 Bcf/d of Qatari LNG export capacity is expected to remain offline until closer to 2030 because of lasting facility damage.
Asian countries with significant spare coal-fired generation capacity, including India, Japan and South Korea, are expected to absorb part of the LNG shortfall through fuel switching.
Pacific-facing LNG projects, including LNG Canada Phase 2 and Ksi Lisims LNG, a proposed $10-billion-plus, Indigenous-led floating LNG export facility on British Columbia’s northwest coast, may benefit from increased buyer focus on supply-chain security and shipping-route diversification.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE®.
You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.
About Enverus Intelligence® Research Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
MARC is where the minerals and royalty world comes to compare notes. This year, I came away with a clear sense that the macro environment is finally forcing the conversations the industry has been putting off — inventory quality, capital discipline, where the real deal flow is. And Enverus was in the middle of all of it. Here’s what stood out.
A First for Enverus: Sponsoring Women in Minerals
One of the moments I’m most proud of from MARC didn’t happen on a conference stage. It happened at lunch.
Enverus sponsored the Women in Minerals luncheon for the first time, and it was one of the best-attended events of the conference. I had the chance to speak, and what I said then is worth repeating: this industry is stronger when more voices are at the table. Organizations like Women in Minerals matter because they signal to the next generation of women entering minerals, royalty, and non-op that there’s a community waiting for them.
At Enverus, this space isn’t an afterthought; it’s a priority. We were proud to be in that room, and we’ll be back.
Signal 1: The U.S. Supply Advantage Is Structural — Not Cyclical
The conference opened with a clear macro framing, the U.S. has become the world’s swing producer and LNG anchor. The Iran conflict has removed about 10 mmbbl/d from global markets causing a rapid drawdown in global inventories and setting up a higher crude price for 2027. The Permian Basin is now the world’s marginal barrel. U.S. LNG is Europe’s primary gas backstop. Neither reverts in any foreseeable political cycle.
The supply disruption scorecard tells the story plainly: ~8–10 mmbbl/d has been disrupted, rerouted, or put at risk since 2022 — equivalent to nearly 10% of total global demand. Russia, Iran, Houthis/Red Sea, Venezuela, Libya. The U.S. has been the non-OPEC offset to every single one. That’s not a coincidence, it’s a structural role that won’t unwind without a fundamental political reset that nobody on stage was predicting. The Enverus Intel Research data added a specific anchor to the macro picture. Oil equities are currently implying ~$70/bbl WTI — well below EIR’s price forecast — which means the market is being more conservative than the underlying supply fundamentals suggest. Gas equities are implying ~$4/Mcf Henry Hub despite near-term softness. The gap between what equities are pricing in and what the structural supply picture supports is one of the more actionable observations from the session.
The public company panel reinforced this from the asset side. Black Stone Minerals called out the Haynesville gas story specifically — noting that the pull on Haynesville molecules tied to LNG demand has just begun, and that long-duration mineral positions in gas-producing basins with infrastructure access to LNG markets are exactly where they see structural long-term asset growth. Freehold, a Canadian royalty company, noted that 50% of their revenue now comes from U.S. production — a deliberate strategic shift that signals where sophisticated royalty capital sees the most durable upside.
What this means for minerals: The structural price floor for U.S. barrels is better-anchored today than it was three years ago — not because of a temporary geopolitical spike, but because the global supply architecture has rewired itself around U.S. production in ways that don’t reverse easily. For minerals buyers underwriting through-cycle value, the worst realistic case for oil prices is less bad than it used to be. And the gas story tied to LNG demand is still in early innings.
Signal 2: Capital Is Selective and the Bar Has Moved Permanently
Capital isn’t absent from minerals — but it has become disciplined in ways that aren’t reversing. Upstream-focused private equity peaked at 131 fund commitments in 2017 and has hovered around 20–24 since 2022. Public upstream equity and debt issuances rebounded to $62B in 2024 and $52B in 2025 — but that capital is concentrating around larger, diversified platforms in core basins with clear development visibility.
One of the more interesting undercurrents at MARC was the growing presence of family office capital in the minerals space. Four years ago they were just starting to show up. Now they’re an established buyer class — drawn in by yield, low capex requirements, and a risk profile that looks attractive relative to direct E&P ownership. As one panelist put it, east of I-35 are family offices, and they’ve been coming in looking to put capital to work in this space for several years now.
What family offices want is specific: yield, lack of capex, low risk, and G&A that is lean relative to enterprise value. They’re benchmarking management fees tightly at roughly 2% of enterprise value — a little higher for non-op/op platforms — and scrutinizing G&A closely. They prefer managers who are heavily invested in the asset alongside them, and many are outsourcing business development and mineral management rather than building large internal teams. That raises the bar for third-party operators and managers to demonstrate credibility, data fluency, and disciplined underwriting.
What institutional investors want is consistent: scale, cash flow visibility, downside protection, and exposure to LNG, AI power, and reshoring demand. Assets with clear development visibility in Delaware/Midland for oil and Haynesville/Marcellus tied to LNG and data center power for gas are consistently attracting capital. Everything else is working harder to get attention. The 65% of PE mineral commitments since 2023 that are focused on the Permian Basin — per Enverus M&A data — tells you exactly where institutional conviction is concentrated.
What this means for minerals: The buyer universe has gotten broader but more demanding. Family offices are now a real part of the capital stack — patient, yield-oriented, and cost-conscious. Portfolios with visible inventory, quality operators, low G&A, and infrastructure access are commanding the premiums. And for mineral managers competing for that capital, the ability to show organized, coherent data about your own assets is increasingly the price of entry.
Signal 3: Inventory Quality Is the Defining Question and the Clock Is Ticking
The Enverus Intel Research session led by Andrew McConn was the most data-dense hour of the conference — and the most consequential for anyone making acquisition decisions right now. The headline is straightforward: the Permian has 8 years of sub-$50 WTI breakeven inventory remaining at PV-10. But the gap between PV-10 and PV-50 location counts is significant — and worth understanding before you underwrite a deal. 76,000 locations clear the $50 breakeven at PV-10. Only 12,900 do at PV-50. That’s a wide range, and where you land in that range has a material impact on what you should pay.
The trajectory from here is equally important. By 2040, the activity-weighted breakeven in the Permian reaches $95/bbl and the marginal breakeven hits $110/bbl. Core inventory depletion isn’t a distant concern — it’s already showing up in well economics today. In the Midland, oil EURs are dropping 0.9 Mbbl per 1,000 feet with each incremental well added to a DSU. Operators are pivoting to shallower targets in the Delaware core as the best intervals get drilled up. The market has already started pricing this — operators with less than five years of sub-$50 inventory are trading at PDP value, with no premium for undeveloped upside that isn’t credibly there.
There are genuine upsides, and Andrew was specific about them. The Barnett-Woodford interval in the Midland exceeded base performance by more than 30% in 2025 — a real upside surprise that’s expanding the opportunity set. Northern Delaware resource expansion is continuing, concentrated in New Mexico with inventory being unlocked primarily in KPLA Plus across Bone Spring units. On the gas side, 42,500 locations clear the $3/MMBtu breakeven at PV-10, but only 5,700 at PV-50 — and Haynesville inventory with direct access to LNG markets is already pricing at a premium to everything else. By 2040, the gas activity-weighted breakeven reaches $4.80/MMBtu with marginal at $5.50. The window on quality inventory is real and the data is showing it.
The public company panel added a practitioner layer to this. Black Stone Minerals — one of the largest publicly traded mineral and royalty companies in the U.S. — shared how they think about long-term value creation through mineral aggregation and legacy asset positions assembled over decades. With 2M leased acres, their focus isn’t on drilling — that’s the operator’s job — but on how they structure leases and operator relationships to ensure their acreage gets developed on terms that maximize long-term mineral value. That includes lease provisions that hold operators accountable to development timelines and capture value across multiple productive intervals. The Haynesville gas position was highlighted specifically — the pull on those molecules tied to LNG demand has just begun, and long-duration, well-structured mineral positions in that basin are exactly what benefits from that tailwind.
What this means for minerals: The inventory story is more nuanced than the headline numbers suggest. The Permian is still the most defensible basin for minerals capital — but the quality gradient within the Permian is steepening. Understanding the gap between PV-10 and PV-50 location counts before you underwrite a deal isn’t a technical exercise — it’s the difference between paying the right price and overpaying for inventory that looks better on paper than it performs in practice.
Signal 4: Deal Activity Is Real — But Execution Edge Is the Differentiator
Mineral M&A reached nearly $12 billion in 2025, led by Permian acquisitions — per Enverus M&A data. Royalty deals averaged 9x EBITDA in 2024–25. The market has bifurcated, with increasingly high valuations paid for Permian interests versus non-Permian. Viper has led all mineral buyers by value since 2023, and nearly $2B in additional transactions closed in the past year, including the Warwick/GRP acquisition of Viper assets at $670M, WhiteHawk’s acquisition of PHX Minerals at $187M, MAP Energy’s GP-led continuation fund, and the Coronado recapitalization in Eagle Ford and Haynesville.
What drives capital to winning platforms: proven management, a defined acquisition thesis, sourcing advantage, data-driven underwriting, and the technical capability to evaluate geology, production modeling, and asset economics with speed. The competitive gap isn’t always about capital — it’s about how quickly a team can form a directional view of an asset and decide whether it deserves their time.
The panel was candid about the mistakes that derail mineral managers: not making decisions, pursuing the wrong deal at the wrong time, overpaying without guardrails, and putting yourself behind the eight-ball on a first deal that needs to be successful to establish credibility. The pattern across every one of those mistakes is the same — insufficient conviction at the moment of decision, usually because the data wasn’t organized well enough to act on.
What this means for minerals: The market is active and the premiums are real — but they’re concentrated. Permian is commanding a bifurcated premium over everything else. And the teams closing deals consistently have solved the speed and conviction problem — they’re not rebuilding the model from scratch for every opportunity.
Signal 5: The Capital Coming into Minerals Is Structurally More Creative
A dedicated session on minerals fund structures highlighted something that doesn’t get enough attention on the buy side: the capital coming into minerals deals today is structurally more creative than it was five years ago. GP-led secondaries, 1031 fund structures, GP-LP flips for IDC tax efficiency, and continuation vehicles are all expanding what’s possible on both sides of a transaction.
Private equity, family offices, strategics, and structured credit are all active in the market with different return profiles, time horizons, and deal requirements. In a slower traditional fundraising environment, GP-led secondaries and structured capital are filling the liquidity gap and facilitating transactions that wouldn’t have cleared under older financing frameworks.
New financing structures are also lowering the cost of capital for a new class of buyers and expanding who you’re competing against. Asset-backed securitization in particular is giving buyers access to cheaper financing than traditional credit facilities — which means they can pay more for assets and still hit their return targets. That’s a meaningful shift in the competitive buyer universe that wasn’t a factor five years ago and is now an active part of how deals are getting done.
One perspective from the panel worth holding onto: 95% accuracy is good enough if you’re planning to exit. But the longer you hold assets, the more revenue precision becomes the priority. That’s a fundamentally different operating posture — and it requires a different kind of data infrastructure underneath it. As one panelist put it, this business is a grind. Pause and celebrate the wins. Your team will appreciate it.
What this means for minerals: Buyers who understand the full range of capital structures in the market — and can speak to them fluently in conversations with sellers and investors — are better positioned to structure offers that win. The financing creativity is a real edge, but only if you understand what each structure requires and how to use it. And knowing that ABS-backed buyers may have a structural cost-of-capital advantage over competitors using traditional credit facilities is the kind of market intelligence that changes how you think about who you’re bidding against.
Signal 6: AI Is Already Working in Minerals — Just Not Where You’d Expect
The AI conversation at MARC wasn’t about chatbots or generative summaries. It was about workforce math and operational drag. The companies who spoke most specifically about AI weren’t describing a future state — they were describing what’s already changed in how their teams function.
One operator noted they grew their business while adding only 3–4 people. AI is why. The framing wasn’t “AI instead of people” — it was AI enabling a small team to do what used to require a much larger one. Better idea generation, faster evaluation loops, tighter decision cycles. The estimate on the table: 20–25% better cycle time on deals when the right tools are in place.
But the more honest part of the conversation was about where AI is actually being used day-to-day — and it wasn’t the flashy stuff. It was title complexity. Unit interpretation. Plat management. Lease provisions. Mispayments. The infinitely complex, manually intensive work that sits underneath every minerals portfolio and quietly consumes time that should be going toward decisions. The message from the room was direct: deglitch the things that shouldn’t be this hard. That’s where AI is earning its keep right now.
The data foundation point tied it together. Claims data is still the biggest challenge in minerals. You can have the best tools in the world, but if your data isn’t organized and coherent on your side, you can’t have a productive conversation about your own assets — let alone act on them. As one panelist put it: having the data organized on your side so you can come together and have a coherent discussion is the prerequisite. Everything else follows that.
What this means for minerals: The AI edge in minerals isn’t coming from the biggest platforms or the best-funded teams. It’s coming from operators who made a decision to stop tolerating operational drag and started treating technology as a multiplier. The use cases are less glamorous than the headlines — title complexity, ownership interpretation, payment accuracy — but the time savings are real and compounding. For non-op managers specifically, the AFE and ownership complexity problems are exactly where this is landing first. The work that used to require days buried in PDFs and spreadsheets is becoming a workflow that runs in minutes, with an auditable output ready for approval. That’s not a prediction. It’s already live.
What Enverus Brought and What the Room Said
Beyond the research session and product launches, the most validating moment at MARC came from somewhere we didn’t script.
During a public company minerals and royalties panel, the moderator asked which AI and technology platforms the industry is relying on. Chris Steddum (CFO, TPL), Susan Nagy (VP, Business Development, Freehold Royalties), and Taylor DeWalch (President, Black Stone Minerals) all called out Enverus unprompted. Three public company leaders, on stage, at the industry’s premier conference — none of them prompted, none of them our customers on a panel we organized. That kind of validation speaks louder than anything we could say about ourselves.
At MARC, Enverus showcased the launch of Minerals Evaluate & Acquire for true end-to-end acquisition workflows, Intel Research insights on inventory and price outlook, the new Tracts partnership for title and ownership intelligence, The AFE Evaluation Report flow within Enverus ONE® for non-op management, and Minerals Marketplace connecting buyers and sellers directly. The research session gave the room a clearer view of where quality inventory remains and where capital is moving.
Minerals Evaluate & Acquire gives teams the speed and confidence to act on that view. The Tracts partnership removes the title bottleneck that slows deals down at the worst possible moment. The Marketplace puts 300+ active listings in front of the right buyers, directly. And the AFE Evaluation report starts closing the gap between data and decision on the non-op side.
Strong showing from the Enverus product, Intel Research, and Customer Success teams — and clear evidence the work is resonating where it counts most.
CALGARY, Alberta (May 19, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has released its latest report, Electrification Load Forecast: The L48 Goes Electric, highlighting the growing role of electrification in shaping U.S. power demand.
Electrification is expected to add approximately 24 GW of incremental load by 2035 and about 78 GW by 2050 across the Lower 48, driven by the transition from fuel-based technologies to electric alternatives in industrial processes and space heating. Electrification will account for roughly 4.1% of total U.S. load by 2035, signaling a meaningful but regionally uneven shift in demand.
Growth is highly concentrated, with PJM, MISO and NYISO accounting for 69% of incremental load by 2035, reflecting their combination of gas-reliant building stock, industrial demand and large-scale heating transitions. At the same time, some regions are expected to see flat or declining load as efficiency gains from technologies such as heat pumps offset new demand.
“Electrification is emerging as a measurable and regionally concentrated driver of U.S. load growth, with industrial demand and heating transitions leading the increase. At the same time, efficiency gains and regional differences in heating technology mean the impact on load is not uniform and will reshape grid dynamics, including increased winter sensitivity and market volatility,” said Kevin Kang, report author and senior analyst at Enverus Intelligence® Research.
Industrial electrification represents the largest share of incremental demand, contributing 11.4 GW, or 47% of total load growth by 2035. Commercial and residential sectors follow, adding 6.8 GW (29%) and 5.7 GW (24%), respectively, as building heating systems shift toward electric alternatives.
Regional dynamics are shaped by differences in existing heating infrastructure. Areas that rely heavily on gas or oil heating are expected to see increased electricity demand as electrification accelerates, while regions with existing electric resistance heating may experience net load reductions as more efficient heat pumps reduce overall consumption.
Policy is also a key driver. State-level electrification mandates, particularly in colder regions, are expected to drive significant relative load increases, including projected growth of 27% in ISO New England and 21% in New York ISO by 2035. These shifts are likely to increase winter weather sensitivity and contribute to greater market volatility.
Key takeaways:
Electrification adds ~24 GW of incremental U.S. load by 2035 and ~78 GW by 2050
PJM, MISO and NYISO account for ~69% of 2035 load growth
Industrial sector leads with 11.4 GW (47%), followed by commercial (6.8 GW) and residential (5.7 GW)
Electrification represents ~4.1% of total Lower 48 load by 2035
Regional dynamics vary, with some areas seeing net load declines due to efficiency gains (e.g., heat pump adoption reducing electricity use)
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE®.
You must be an Enverus Intelligence® Research subscriber to access this report.”
EIR research reports cannot be distributed to members of the media without a scheduled interview. Journalists interested in learning more about this analysis are encouraged to use our Request Media Interview button to schedule a time to meet with one of our expert analysts, who can provide context, insight, and deeper discussion of the findings.
About Enverus Intelligence® Research Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
Deal activity, capital deployment and operational responses to tightening supply defined the week across U.S. energy markets.
Top Stories
Diversified & Carlyle deploy ABS to acquire Camino for nearly $1.2B Diversified Energy and Carlyle agreed to acquire Camino Natural Resources assets in Oklahoma for nearly $1.2B using asset-backed securitization. The deal adds roughly 300 MMcfe/d and underscores ABS as a key financing tool for acquiring mature, cash-flow-generating upstream portfolios.
Viper adding 3,000 acres and 4,000 boe/d with Riverbend buy Viper Energy is acquiring roughly 3,000 net royalty acres and about 4,000 boe/d through its purchase of Riverbend Oil & Gas. The bolt-on expands its footprint across core Midland and Delaware Basin acreage while supporting near-term production visibility and cash flow growth.
EGS firm Fervo makes ~$1.9B in decade’s top U.S. energy IPO Fervo Energy completed an approximately $1.9B IPO, marking the largest U.S. energy offering in more than a decade. The transaction highlights growing investor demand for firm, scalable power generation, particularly geothermal, as markets prioritize reliability alongside energy transition goals.
Kodiak issuing $750MM in stock to pay down acquisition debt Kodiak Gas Services is raising $750MM in equity to reduce debt associated with its Distributed Power Solutions acquisition. The move reflects continued capital rotation toward distributed generation tied to data centers and industrial load growth, reinforcing demand for power-linked infrastructure.
Diamondback mobilizing 2-3 rigs amid oil supply disruption Diamondback is adding 2–3 rigs and accelerating completions to respond to tightening global oil supply. The company is drawing down drilled but uncompleted wells to quickly boost production, positioning itself ahead of peers maintaining a more measured activity pace.
Additional Stories
Also this week: Chevron holds capital steady; Gulfport posts record SCOOP drilling; Venture Global boosts 2026 EBITDA outlook; Energy Transfer expands pipeline and power projects; DOF lands $2B Petrobras contracts; H&P sees rig demand tightening; Occidental delays Stratos DAC; Calumet restarts SAF expansion.
In the oil and gas industry, automated clearing house (ACH) fraud and change-of-bank scams create real exposure on both sides of a royalty payment. For operators, a fraudulent account update can mean sending funds to the wrong place — and recovering misdirected payments is rarely simple. For royalty owners and payees, it can mean having their payments stolen entirely.
One fraudulent routing number. One intercepted request. The damage is real, and it happens fast. Identity verification is the first line of defense — and we’ve made it stronger.
Enverus EnergyLink® now includes government ID verification in its identity verification process for operators processing ACH transactions and bank account changes. Here’s what’s changed, why it matters, and what you can expect.
Why identity verification matters in royalty payments
ACH fraud is a known and growing risk in oil and gas. Fraudsters impersonate royalty owners, suppliers, or other payees and submit falsified bank account update requests. If those requests aren’t properly verified, payments get rerouted — and recovering misdirected funds is rarely straightforward.
Operators carry the bulk of the responsibility here. As senders, you’re the ones initiating and authorizing payments on behalf of thousands of payees. The strength of your verification process is what stands between a legitimate account update and a fraudulent one. That’s a real burden, and it deserves a real solution.
How verification worked before: KBA
Historically, EnergyLink® has used Knowledge-Based Authentication as its identity verification method. KBA works by presenting the person being verified with a short set of questions drawn from public and semi-public records — things like previous addresses, prior loan amounts, or known associates. If the answers match, identity is confirmed.
KBA is a well-established standard, and it works. But it has real limitations. People with thin credit histories or limited U.S. records can struggle to pass it. And in some cases, answers to KBA questions aren’t as private as they should be — family members, former business partners, or bad actors with access to the right data can potentially answer them correctly.
KBA verifies what someone knows. It doesn’t verify who they are.
What’s new: Government ID verification
Government ID verification closes that gap. Instead of relying solely on answers to knowledge-based questions, EnergyLink® now also asks the person being verified to submit a government-issued photo ID — a driver’s license, passport, or equivalent document. That ID is then validated using forensic checks: document authenticity, expiration, and consistency between the ID and other verification signals.
This adds another layer to EnergyLink®’s existing security framework, which already includes multi-factor authentication (MFA) and KBA. KBA confirms what someone knows. Government ID confirms who they are. Together, they’re meaningfully harder to defeat than either method alone.
For operators, this means more confidence that the person updating a bank account actually is who they say they are. For royalty owners and other payees, it means a verification process that’s more accessible — particularly for those who’ve had difficulty passing KBA alone — and more secure for everyone involved.
Government ID verification is one part of a broader set of security enhancements we’re bringing to EnergyLink®. Financial account ownership verification — which will confirm that a payee actually owns the bank account they’re providing — is the next addition and will be rolling out to customers soon.
With all three layers in place, operators will have identity verification that covers knowledge, identity, and account ownership — each offering protection the others can’t. KBA confirms what you know. Government ID confirms who you are. Financial account ownership confirms what you own. Together, they form a verification standard that’s genuinely difficult to defeat.
Questions?
If you have questions about today’s update or how identity verification works within EnergyLink®, reach out to your Enverus account representative or request a call from our team by filling out the form below.
For years, natural gas pipelines were a straightforward asset class — stable throughput, predictable demand, reliable returns. That’s changing fast. The AI boom is driving a surge in power demand that’s reshaping how gas moves through the U.S. interstate pipeline network, creating new risks and opportunities that most investors aren’t yet equipped to see.
AI Data Centers Are Driving Natural Gas Demand Faster Than Models Expected
Hyperscale data center campuses are now routinely planned at 500 MW to over 1 GW of power demand, but grid interconnection timelines for projects of that scale run five to seven years. AI companies can’t wait that long. Natural gas is filling the gap — not as a transitional fuel in the policy sense, but as the only commercially practical option for delivering large-scale, always-on power to facilities that can’t tolerate downtime
~2% increase in total U.S. gas consumption from a category that barely existed 2 years ago
2.1 Bcf/d of incremental demand from behind-the-meter projects through 2030. Source: Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR)
The result is a surge in gas-fired generation, much of it planned behind the meter. According to Cleanview, at least 46 data centers representing roughly 56 GW of combined capacity now plan to generate their own power on-site; 90% of those projects announced in 2025 alone, with approximately three-quarters of identified generation equipment running on natural gas. EIR projects about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of incremental gas demand from behind-the-meter projects through 2030 — roughly a 2% increase in total U.S. gas consumption, driven by a single demand category that barely existed 2 years ago. Morningstar DBRS estimates nearly 18 Bcf/d of new pipeline capacity will come online in 2026, the largest annual addition since 2008.
What Happens When Data Center Energy Demand Disappears from Market Data?
What makes this trend particularly consequential for investors is that behind-the-meter consumption removes demand from the places where the market traditionally observes it. Gas consumed by a grid-connected power plant shows up in dispatch data, ISO reports, and spot market activity. Gas consumed by an on-site facility pulling directly from a transmission lateral often doesn’t. It bypasses the grid, the organized market, and much of the reporting infrastructure that analysts rely on.
This creates three risks that don’t fit neatly into existing investment frameworks.
First, price spikes you didn’t see coming. When large-scale gas demand concentrates along corridors designed for a different demand profile, basis differentials can widen unexpectedly. Without corridor-level flow visibility, portfolio managers get surprised by regional price spikes that were building for months.
Second, capacity constraints hiding in plain sight. Approximately 30,000 transmission meters span the U.S. interstate network, but utilization data is scattered across individual operator postings in inconsistent formats, making system wide analysis prohibitively manual.
Third, demand that doesn’t show up in your models. Behind-the-meter consumption bypasses the grid, the organized market, and the reporting infrastructure analysts rely on. Without transmission-to-demand connectivity, investors are modeling pipeline revenue against incomplete demand pictures and mispricing assets accordingly.
These risks arrive in a market where capital is actively flowing. PwC reported that global energy M&A values rose 27% in 2025, and Deloitte tracked $57 billion in midstream deals alone.
Case Study: When Hidden Gas Demand Changes a Midstream Valuation
The scenario: A PE firm bids on a pipeline asset at 8–10x EBITDA based on steady utilization and comfortable remaining capacity.
Without better data: The deal team underprices near-term upside and misses medium-term capacity risk — potentially misjudging the asset’s value by hundreds of millions.
The blind spot: Three behind-the-meter data center projects are in development along the same corridor, invisible to grid data and interconnection queues, consuming enough gas to materially change the system’s capacity picture.
With daily flow visibility: The team sees the demand coming, adjusts their throughput model, and prices the deal accordingly.
Consider a private equity firm evaluating a midstream acquisition — a pipeline system serving a corridor between a production basin and a growing demand center. The operator’s projections show steady throughput growth, and historical utilization rates suggest comfortable headroom. Stable pipeline assets in this market are commanding 8–10x EBITDA multiples and at that price, getting the utilization picture wrong is a costly mistake.
What the deal team may not see: three behind-the-meter gas generation projects totaling 1.5 GW of planned capacity are in development along the same corridor. None appear in grid interconnection queues because they’re designed to bypass the grid entirely. A single 1 GW data center consumes approximately 140 MMcf/d of natural gas according to EIR — so the combined demand from these projects would consume a meaningful share of the system’s remaining capacity.
Without daily, meter-level flow data connecting transmission volumes to downstream demand, the deal team’s throughput model understates both the near-term upside (higher utilization) and the medium-term risk (capacity constraints that could trigger shipper competition or force capital-intensive expansion sooner than projected). The investment thesis doesn’t change direction, but the risk profile changes materially.
From Operational Data to Financial Signal
Gas transmission data, historically an operational input for pipeline schedulers, is becoming a financial data layer. Enverus Natural Gas Transmission Analytics, delivered within Enverus PRISM®, normalizes data from approximately 30,000 transmission meters across every major U.S. interstate system into a single, daily-updated dataset. Users can track gas movement from basin to market hub, monitor where capacity is tightening, observe shifts in route share and basin exit dynamics, and connect transmission flows to real end-use demand — including power generation, LNG export, industrial consumption, and behind-the-meter load.
The full U.S. interstate natural gas transmission network — nearly 2.5 million meter records across every major pipeline system, with daily scheduled quantities tracked by operator.
For infrastructure investors, that means stress-testing acquisitions against actual throughput trends. For commodity funds, it means seeing corridor-level utilization shifts that foreshadow basis moves. For utilities and IPPs, it means tracing fuel supply reliability from basin to delivery point and seeing whether competing demand is emerging along the same corridor.
Gas gathering systems mapped against production trends by operator — connecting upstream activity to the midstream infrastructure that moves it, with over 42,000 wells tracked across major basins.
The natural gas transmission network was built for a world where demand growth was gradual and predictable. That world is over. The firms that integrate pipeline-level data into their investment process will see constraints, demand shifts, and basis risk earlier than those still relying on quarterly summaries and forward curve extrapolation. The pipes haven’t changed — but what’s flowing through them has.
About Enverus Intelligence® | Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macro-economic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies, and capital providers worldwide. See additional disclosures here.
CALGARY, Alberta (May 13, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has released its summary of recent U.S. upstream M&A activity and market outlook, highlighting a strong start to 2026 followed by a volatility-driven slowdown that is expected to reverse.
U.S. upstream deal value reached $38 billion in 1Q26, the highest quarterly total in two years, before activity slowed sharply in March amid increased crude price volatility. Despite the pause, higher oil prices are expected to accelerate a rebound in dealmaking, particularly by enabling more private E&Ps to pursue sales while supporting continued corporate consolidation.
“The market entered a temporary holding pattern as volatility clouded the outlook for oil prices, but the case for higher-for-longer oil prices is strengthening and creating the setup for an M&A rebound. We expect that to translate into more private companies coming to market, something we are already starting to see, and continued consolidation among public operators,” said Andrew Dittmar, principal analyst at Enverus Intelligence Research.
Top Five U.S. Upstream Deals of 1Q26
Date
Buyers
Sellers
Deal Type
US Basin or Play
Value ($MM)
2/2/2026
Devon Energy
Coterra Energy
Corporate
Multiple
$25,413
1/16/2026
Mitsubishi
Aethon III
Corporate
Haynesville
$7,530
2/17/2026
Flywheel Energy
Ovintiv
Property
Anadarko
$3,000
2/18/2026
Caturus Energy
SM Energy
Property
Eagle Ford
$950
2/25/2026
Crescent Energy
Undisclosed Seller
Royalty
Eagle Ford
$355
Source | Enverus Oil & Gas M&A
Activity in early 2026 was driven largely by corporate consolidation, including a $25 billion merger by Devon Energy and Coterra Energy that contributed about two-thirds of quarterly deal value. Over the past six months, total deal value exceeded $60 billion as the market continued to build momentum. However, transaction count declined in 1Q26, with only eight deals over $100 million recorded, tying a post-2020 low. The slowdown in volume reflects less active deal flow in March given uncertainty in oil markets once the Iran conflict commenced.
Buyer composition continues to evolve, with asset-backed securitization (ABS) financing playing a growing role in production-weighted acquisitions. Recent transactions underscore sustained demand from ABS-linked buyers, including Ovintiv’s $3 billion sale of Anadarko Basin assets in the first quarter to Flywheel Energy, a buyer that has deployed ABS financing in past deals. Diversified Energy’s recent $1.175 billion acquisition of Anadarko Basin assets from Camino Natural Resources was publicly linked to an ABS placement and demonstrates continued appetite for cash-flowing production from this buyer pool.
International capital remains active, particularly in gas-weighted regions. Gulf Coast-adjacent assets, including those in the Haynesville, continue to attract strong interest from Asian buyers, with Mitsubishi’s purchase of Aethon Energy for $7.6 billion highlighting this trend. Limited remaining Haynesville targets are likely to push buyers to evaluate alternative regions such as Appalachia despite infrastructure constraints, or even gassier portions of the Permian once a pipeline buildout helps alleviate extremely poor gas pricing in the region. Outside the U.S., Shell’s 2Q26 $16.4 billion acquisition of ARC Resources in Canada highlights renewed interest from European supermajors returning to the market as buyers, with its interest likely linked to the completion of LNG Canada Phase 1, with a final investment decision on Phase 2 pending.
Higher oil prices are also shifting seller behavior, increasing the likelihood of private sales. Better pricing is expected to encourage more private E&Ps to bring assets to market, including a handful of remaining targets in the Permian, while also making mature plays like the Eagle Ford and Williston significantly more economic to develop. Reports that Eagle Ford producer WildFire Energy is going to market, as well as the recent acquisition of Zavanna Energy by Kraken Resource in the Williston Basin, underscore this trend. Public companies that have participated in large-scale M&A, like ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy and SM Energy, are likely to take advantage of higher prices and a hot asset market to trim non-core portions of their portfolios.
Inventory pricing remains a central theme. Pricing for oil-weighted inventory remained resilient in 2025 even in a lower crude price environment, and rising oil prices are expected to further lift inventory values as buyers rush to secure remaining opportunities.
Looking ahead, EIR expects deal activity to follow historical patterns, where periods of volatility-driven slowdowns are followed by sharp recoveries once markets stabilize. A material shift in crude prices higher will add fuel to this rebound. “We are likely heading into another tsunami of consolidation as higher oil prices supercharge both private companies going to market and public E&P appetite for deals, both corporate consolidation and private asset sales,” added Dittmar. “This, combined with strong appetite from private capital, both ABS and traditional private equity, this sets up the market for a very busy rest of the year.”
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE®.
You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.
EIR research reports cannot be distributed to members of the media without a scheduled interview. Journalists interested in learning more about this analysis are encouraged to use our Request Media Interview button to schedule a time to meet with one of our expert analysts, who can provide context, insight, and deeper discussion of the findings.
About Enverus Intelligence® Research Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
CALGARY, Alberta (May 12, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has released its latest Fundamental Edge report, reaffirming its higher-for-longer oil price outlook first established in mid-March as market consensus moves closer to its projections.
EIR has maintained its average Brent forecast of $95/bbl for the rest of 2026 and $100/bbl for all of 2027, even as market pricing and peer forecasts have moved toward that view. The outlook is driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz impacting oil flows and subsequent low OECD crude and product stock levels.
“Since March 11, our view has been that oil prices would remain higher for longer, and we have not deviated from that position as events have unfolded. However, our three-month base case closure presumption is about to come due, and the lack of resolution introduces additional uncertainty around the path forward. For every additional month the Strait remains closed, we would expect $10–$15/bbl to be added to our price outlook,” said Al Salazar, director of research at EIR.
Key takeaways
EIR has maintained its average Brent forecast of $95/bbl for the rest of 2026 and $100/bbl for 2027 since March 11.
Market pricing and peer revisions are now moving closer to EIR’s earlier outlook.
The base case assumes a three-month Strait of Hormuz closure.
Each additional month of disruption adds approximately $10–$15/bbl to the outlook.
Structural factors, including constrained spare capacity and muted U.S. supply response, support a sustained geopolitical risk premium.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE™.
You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.
EIR research reports cannot be distributed to members of the media without a scheduled interview. Journalists interested in learning more about this analysis are encouraged to use our Request Media Interview button to schedule a time to meet with one of our expert analysts, who can provide context, insight, and deeper discussion of the findings.
About Enverus Intelligence® Research Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
This week’s energy headlines spotlight midstream M&A scale-building, Canadian NGL consolidation under pressure, offshore technology expansion, and steady positioning from super-majors amid geopolitical volatility. Here are five stories that stood out:
Top Stories
Western strikes again in Delaware with $1.6B Brazos system buy Western Midstream agreed to acquire Brazos Delaware for $1.6 billion, expanding its footprint and processing capacity in the southern Delaware Basin. The transaction adds scale, reduces customer concentration and reinforces the company’s focus on long-lived, fee-based infrastructure.
Keyera means to close Plains NGL deal despite regulatory fight Keyera is proceeding with its planned acquisition of Plains’ Canadian NGL business despite an ongoing regulatory challenge. The more than $5 billion deal would reshape control of key Alberta infrastructure, underscoring the strategic value of integrated systems even amid pushback.
Expro buys Enhanced Drilling to bring MPD tech into fold Expro is acquiring Enhanced Drilling to add managed pressure drilling capabilities to its portfolio. The move strengthens its positioning in complex offshore well construction and expands its technology offering across global markets.
Chevron aims to keep the ship steady during ongoing volatility Chevron emphasized continuity in strategy despite market volatility linked to conflict in the Middle East. The company is maintaining capital discipline while optimizing crude flows into higher‑margin markets and prioritizing free cash flow.
Exxon expects high prices to stay, even after normalcy returns ExxonMobil warned that the full supply impact of ongoing disruptions has yet to work through global markets. The company expects tighter balances and elevated prices to persist even after shipping flows begin to normalize.
Additional Stories
Also this week: Chord optimized its Bakken output with artificial lift, Williams expanded gas and power infrastructure for datacenter demand, Kinetik extended Durango contracts into the late 2030s, Solaris raised $1.3B for distributed power, Atlas sold out of Permian proppant, Colorado and Wyoming aligned on CO2 storage permitting, and IFM’s Mobius expanded into global biogas.
