Enverus News Release - Going green with hydrogen

Green Hydrogen | Europe’s Energy Security Blanket

Research Report : Enverus Intelligence® Vault – Figure 8

As global political tensions escalate, Europe is undertaking a crucial balancing act – meeting ambitious decarbonization targets while ensuring its energy security. To bridge this gap, the EU has crafted a strategic plan that leverages local resources and renewable power to reduce its reliance on Russian natural gas. Recognizing that renewables alone cannot meet all industrial or baseload power needs, the continent aims to produce 10 mtpa of clean hydrogen and import an additional 10 mtpa by 2030, with a focus on green hydrogen given its lower carbon intensity.

This requires a monumental effort to coordinate massive-scale renewable energy development, clean hydrogen production and infrastructure construction to service all EU nations. The plan aims for 1.1 TW of renewable energy capacity, a 2.3x increase from 2022 levels (Figure 1). The production of 10 mtpa of green hydrogen domestically would require 22% of the EU’s planned 2030 renewable capacity, significantly impacting the electricity available to the grid.

Highlights from Energy Transition Research:

Enverus Press Release - Surfing Europe’s green wave

Surfing Europe’s green wave

CALGARY, Alberta (June 12, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS and generative AI company, has released new research that evaluates Europe’s clean hydrogen landscape, analyzing how policies and incentives drive adoption and comparing industry activity to European Union (EU) targets. Key challenges noted in EIR’s report include achieving 2030 targets, scaling up production, accelerating infrastructure development and securing firm investments to cement Europe’s leadership in clean hydrogen.

“The EU is unlikely to meet its 2030 clean hydrogen transportation and import targets without a concerted effort to begin construction on new pipeline and port infrastructure. Without it, clean molecules from export markets like North America could be left stranded,” said Alex Nevokshonoff, analyst at EIR. “Europe must address three key elements to successfully implement clean hydrogen into its energy landscape,” added Donald Campbell, Global Scout – Global Manager for Energy Transition at Enverus and contributor to the report.

“First, there must be a greater focus on the development of the EU’s hydrogen transmission infrastructure to ensure efficient distribution and integration. Second, increasing the number of hydrogen projects reaching FID is essential to move the industry from ideation to implementation. Lastly, enhancing incentive values and simplifying funding eligibility can help lower green hydrogen production costs. Without sufficient funding mechanisms, green hydrogen cannot economically compete with conventional fuels,” Campbell said.

Key takeaways from the report:

  • Europe’s hydrogen transmission and port infrastructure targets are unlikely to be met. Only 12 km of its hydrogen transmission network has been commissioned to date, compared to its 2030 target of 28,000 km.
  • Although green H2 production is on the rise throughout Europe, current efforts are not enough to meet the RePowerEU 2030 target of 10 mtpa, with most projects currently sitting in the non-binding/pre-FID stage. A “less talk, more action” approach is needed to transform the projects from ideation to implementation.
  • Europe leads the U.S. in green hydrogen projects while the U.S. focuses on blue hydrogen, supported by the 45Q tax credit. Europe’s green focus is driven by aggressive renewable energy/emissions targets, uninhibited by oil and gas prices.
  • Green hydrogen production costs remain high and uncompetitive with conventional fuels without substantial financial support mechanisms. Strategic subsidies can help bridge this cost gap.
Enverus graph showing renewable energy capacity

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Intelligence® Research.

You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections between energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Enverus is the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering anytime, anywhere access to analytics and insights for more than 95% of U.S. energy producers and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

View all press releases at Enverus.com/newsroom.

risk-manager-sector

Act on Global Energy Anomalies Fast With the New Enverus | Kpler Partnership

The Challenges of Maintaining a Data-Driven Global View

In the fast-paced world of energy commodity trading, staying ahead demands more than just raw data. Insightful, actionable intelligence allows you to forecast, plan and respond to global market shifts confidently.

If you cannot confidently rely on the quality of your insights, how can you meet the challenge of managing a successful trading plan? How can you answer important questions, including:

  • How do I forecast refined product sales and crude oil purchasing requirements by region?
  • How does a significant global event, like the Red Sea attacks, impact my trading strategy?
  • Is there a seasonal trend or a disparity in expected LNG flows?

Analyzing Global Trade Just Became Much Simpler

The new Kpler and Enverus partnership revolutionizes market analysis, transforming complex, disparate information into clear, actionable insights directly within MarketView®. This allows traders to quickly adapt strategies and capitalize on opportunities with confidence.

With our solution, you can:

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nuclear-worker

Advanced Reactors | The Tech of Tomorrow

Research Report : Enverus Intelligence® Vault – Figure 3

Innovations in nuclear energy are being pursued on a scale not seen since the 1950s and 1960s, with the advanced reactor (AR) industry nearing a pivotal transformation. This momentum, along with the necessary strategic investments, is driven by the expectation of increased demand for lower-carbon energy across various applications. With 98 unique designs in development across major markets such as the U.S., Canada and the U.K., the sector is primed for significant growth.

Commercial differentiation based on diverse thermal power and temperature outputs holds promise for AR technology to address specific energy requirements, including electricity generation, desalination, high-temperature industrial processes and hydrogen production. Enverus Intelligence Research currently tracks 56 small modular reactor projects globally along with their location, specifications and use cases.

Highlights from Energy Transition Research:

  • Surfing the Green Wave – Hydrogen in Europe –This report delves into the impact of policy frameworks propelling Europe’s clean hydrogen evolution while scrutinizing the ramifications of potential shortfalls in meeting 2030 green hydrogen targets. With a focus on key regions and industries, the report assesses the production dynamics and demand drivers of green hydrogen, alongside an evaluation of transmission networks and import strategies. Finally, we juxtapose costs to unveil the economic viability of green hydrogen against conventional fuels.
  • Battery Storage – Best Practices for Investment, Siting and Development – This presentation ranks the most attractive regions for battery storage developers looking to enter or expand in the U.S. market.
  • Treasure Chest 1Q24 – Early Access Datasets for Strategic Analysis – The Energy Transition Research (ETR) team creates and uses a variety of analytics datasets to produce our insights. Many are best consumed integrated with our Enverus PRISM® solutions and some will ultimately become part of established analytics products. ETR clients have early access to these analytics and can incorporate them into their PRISM experience using Enverus’ proprietary Fusion Connect technology. We are pleased to share these datasets with ETR clients in a Fusion-ready format.
Innovations in nuclear energy are being pursued on a scale not seen since the 1950s and 1960s, with the advanced reactor (AR) industry nearing a pivotal transformation.
Enverus Press Release - Operational efficiencies are driving cost excellence in North America’s onshore drilling

Operational efficiencies are driving cost excellence in North America’s onshore drilling

CALGARY, Alberta (June 5, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS and generative AI company, has released new research that analyzes which oil and gas plays show the greatest rate of increase in drilling speeds and whether well costs correlate with drilling speeds. In addition, the report looks at how well designs are affecting drilling efficiencies.

“Cost reduction efforts to improve capital efficiency are top of mind for every operator these days. Drilling speed improvements, driven by larger-scale operations and changes to wellbore design, have a measurable impact on well costs, and operators that have the best drilling performance tend to have the lowest costs in a basin,” said Steve Diederichs, a director at EIR and author of the new report.

“Rigs across major unconventional basins last year were 30% more efficient at drilling productive lateral feet per total rig day compared to 2019. In the Permian, the Texas-New Mexico play that produces the most oil in America, the improvement jumped to 35%” Diederichs said.

Key takeaways from the report:

  • Rigs across major unconventional basins last year were 30% more efficient at drilling productive lateral feet per total rig day compared to 2019.
  • Drilling speeds are better correlated with the E&P than the rig provider. We see reasonable correlations between faster drilling speeds and lower-cost operators in both the Permian and Eagle Ford.
  • A higher well count on a pad enables batch drilling and is typically associated with faster drilling speeds. The Midland screens more positively than the Delaware in terms of operators pivoting to larger-scale, pad-level operations.
Enverus-press-release-graph-lateral-footage-per-total-rig-day

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Intelligence® Research, Activity Analytics, DSU Analytics and Forecast Analytics.

You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections between energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Enverus is the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering anytime, anywhere access to analytics and insights for more than 95% of U.S. energy producers and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

The Permian’s black box of natural gas pipelines

CALGARY, Alberta (June 4, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS and generative AI company, has released its forecasts of natural gas pipeline capacity, constraints and basis in the Permian basin.

In the report, EIR analyzes the black box that is the Permian pipeline network, digging into interstate and intrastate pipelines and forecasts the impact of constrained pipe capacity on natural gas production growth and the Waha basis.

“Transporting natural gas in Texas relies on a mixture of state-regulated pipelines as well as ones overseen by the federal government,” said Jason Feit, an advisor at EIR and report author.

“Due to limited public disclosures required by Texas regulators, any attempt to fully understand Permian gas takeaway capacity is as much art as it is science. EIR’s new report shines a light on gas takeaway and shows how growing gas output in the Permian, a key producing area for the U.S., may be at risk if more pipelines aren’t soon built,” said Feit.

“Currently, close to a quarter of EIR’s forecast of total Permian gas production for 2030 is at risk due to lack of existing and approved infrastructure to transport gas to consuming markets. For example, the Matterhorn Express pipeline will provide temporary alleviation in the Permian but by 2026 more pipe is needed. There are four proposed projects that could help fill the required capacity however they are all yet to reach an FID,” Feit said.

Key takeaways from the report:

  • Gas pipelines out of the Permian are at capacity and will remain so until the second half of 2024 when Matterhorn Express comes online.
  • Volatile Waha gas price has the potential to spend more time below zero due to lack of takeaway capacity constraining the basin The Waha forward curve doesn’t adequately capture the tight dynamics post 2026.
  • Given similar levels of production and limited regional demand, little to no spare capacity exists in the Permian. Factoring in both planned and unplanned maintenance events, the result is an extremely tight market culminating in ongoing price volatility.

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Intelligence® Research.

You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections between energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Enverus is the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering anytime, anywhere access to analytics and insights for more than 95% of U.S. energy producers and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

trading-and-risk

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bullish Lights at the End of Tunnel

Prices for both crude oil and natural gas will push higher by year’s end. $100/bbl Brent and $4.00 Henry Hub are within reason. A hotter summer and significant production shut-ins drive the bullish thesis on natural gas. Meanwhile, OPEC (namely Saudi) discipline, strong demand and weaker supply growth y/y drive the oil thesis, according to Al Salazar, head of macro-oil and gas research at Enervus Intelligence Research.

OPEC+ is meeting June 2 and is expected to continue to roll existing production cuts forward. The meeting is not expected to yield any surprises, say industry experts.

Front-month natural gas prices could touch $4/MMBtu by the end of 2024, despite current levels being stuck in the $2.50-$3.00 range.

“The January contract is roughly 20 cents away,” said Salazar. 

That said, the bullish natural gas call is subject to one major condition – weather.

Natural gas stakeholders roll their eyes when the obvious is stated, weather matters in natural gas markets. But weather matters more so now than ever given the historic gas glut. Winters have been trending much warmer due over the past five consecutive years, while summers have steadily been hotter.

“Odds are the trend of hotter summers will continue, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,” Salazar said. “And if El-Nino is over, maybe we can get a cold winter. Now there’s something for gas producers to be excited about!”

As for oil prices, its often cited that the direction of oil prices is guided by current geopolitical news such as the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi or the Israeli War in Gaza. However, that may not be entirely true.

“Our correlations between crude and product stocks and oil prices tell us Brent is fairly priced,” Salazar said. “We are where we should be, as recent history shows comparable price and stock levels, to what we see today.”

Current news can impact Brent and WTI prices, resulting in intraday movements, or changes in option prices. However, if geopolitical events do not cause a material supply or demand disruption and impact inventories – the price move will not hold.

“News stories that try and tie geopolitical events to oil price movements over the past few months have had a tough time, as the price of oil has largely been flat.”

Prices have traded within a tight range of $82/bbl to $84/bbl for Brent.

“Again, our correlation and a day-to-day check of events vs price tells us there’s no material price premium in Brent. Outlets are stretching to try to explain day-to-day price movements,” Salazar said.

“However, you probably can see it if you’re buying/selling options – calls or puts.” The cost of such financial instruments might be more expensive because of a war” he said.

EIR Remains Bullish on Oil:

“When comparing year-on-year supply and demand fundamentals, this year seems more bullish than last. We were expecting $100/bbl Brent last year. It hit just under $98 before supply from the U.S, Iran and Brazil outperformed our expectations,” said Salazar. This year such supply surprises seem far fetched with the U.S. rig count down, Brazil’s guidance showing no repeat of last year and Iran being largely tapped out. This leaves OPEC as the only likely player that can lead to a material upside surprise in supply.

“There doesn’t seem to be any notion that OPEC is going to increase production,” Salazar said.
Demand remains robust and seasonally it’s about to accelerate with summer driving season. Inventory draws will come and so too will higher oil prices.

operators

Navigating the Depths: Unlocking Canadian Wells With Stage-by-Stage Insights

In the pursuit of capital efficiency, operators strive to continually improve drilling and completion performance, especially in the challenging landscapes of Canada’s unconventional plays. In the realm of oil and gas, where every dollar matters and the margin for error is slim, the ability to make informed decisions before the first drill bit touches the ground is not just an advantage—it’s essential.

Enter the world of detailed, stage-by-stage frac data analysis—a game changer in how we approach well completions. Imagine having a comprehensive dataset that covers the expanse of an entire basin, ready at your fingertips before spud. This isn’t just a pipe dream; it’s the reality we’ve been working towards at Enverus, and here’s a look into the journey and the transformative potential it presents.

The Making of the Dataset

At the core of this endeavor, our Canadian data team at Enverus dedicated countless hours, pouring over completions data from more than 7,000 unconventional wells across Canada and continually added new wells. This monumental dataset encompasses insights from more than 274,000 stages, providing an unprecedented level of detail for multivariate analysis. The goal? To highlight the most influential completions variables and pave the way for optimized production results.

With this enhanced dataset, operators can now:

  • Visualize every frac stage along the wellbore for an in-depth look at well completions in Enverus PRISM®.
  • Tailor the data analysis to specific needs, identifying key operational metrics, challenges and interactions with neighboring wells.
  • Dig into the details, from screen outs to seismic events, to refine operational strategies.
  • Correlate completion techniques with a wealth of metrics, including spacing, production, economics and geology, to identify trends and opportunities for improvement.

The Practical Impact

Consider the ‘Plug & Perf’ technique, prevalent across Canadian unconventional basins. Our dataset sheds light on the performance of fracture plugs, dissecting more than 100,000 instances to gauge the success rates of top providers. In one use case, we discovered that two leading companies not only hold nearly half the market share, but also boast a remarkable 98% success rate (Figure 1).

Furthermore, by analyzing milling times alongside plug types, our dataset offers insights into optimal plug and mill combinations, potentially saving operators significant time and resources, making this data valuable to operators outside of Canada (Figure 2).

FIGURE 1 | Plugs Installed by Manufacturer and Failure Rate

FIGURE 2 | Frac Plugs Installed and Average Milling Time by Manufacturer

The Interface: Enverus PRISM

Navigating this wealth of information is made seamless with Enverus PRISM, our interactive platform that brings more than 200 attributes per stage to your screen. This tool empowers operators and service companies to make evidence-based decisions, avoiding the costly trial and error approach and instead leveraging the collective experience embedded in our dataset.

Looking Ahead

The challenges faced by Canadian operators and service companies are many, but so are the opportunities for innovation and efficiency. As we continue to refine our datasets and tools, our goal remains clear—to provide the industry with reliable, detailed insights that drive better decisions, lower costs, and elevate productivity.

Explore more of our Canadian Solutions here. To learn more about the latest Canadian data improvements or to speak with someone from our team, fill out the form below.

energy-transition

Quantifying Texas’s CCUS Dominance I Carbon Innovation

projected-ccus-capacity-for-regions-in-2030-and-beyond

The Inflation Reduction Act spurred a surge of project announcements and developments on the molecules side of the energy transition, creating numerous opportunities for capital deployment. Texas’ dominance in this nascent landscape is evident, and Enverus Foundations™ – Carbon Innovation quantifies this by providing centralized access and daily updates to more than 3,000 global energy transition projects.

Some 85% of CCUS projects are still pre-operational, but a massive wave of development is on the horizon. By 2030, Enverus Intelligence Research expects 700 projects to launch, adding 1.2 Gtpa of capacity and opening doors for new collaborations. The U.S. is at the forefront, commanding 42% of global capacity. Texas alone holds a staggering 494 mtpa, accounting for 46% of the nation’s storage and 45% of its capture capacity. Texas further capitalizes on CCUS infrastructure by planning to produce 4.2 mtpa of blue hydrogen, representing 58% of U.S. planned blue hydrogen production.

Highlights from Energy Transition Research

Subsurface Innovation 4Q23 | Geothermal Glow, Carbon Control – Subsurface Innovation continues to evolve rapidly. To help navigate the landscape, Enverus Intelligence Research tracks all announcements in the space from partnerships, project announcements, changes in regulation and policy, research and development, funding and more.

Prism Signal | Black Mountain Energy Storage Portfolio Sale: Low-Income Adders Drive Value – Grid storage developer Black Mountain Energy recently announced a 1.07 GW/2.14 GWh, seven-project battery energy storage system portfolio in ERCOT is up for sale. The portfolio includes two projects in North Central, two in West, two in Coast and one in the Far West load zones of ERCOT. Four batteries reside within energy communities that qualify for an additional 10% tax credit, boosting the value of a portfolio of development assets with a clear line of sight to commercial operation.

Battery Storage Screening | Benchmarking Prime Development Regions – This report ranks the most attractive regions for battery storage developers looking to enter or expand in the U.S. market.

Data centers, bitcoin mining and electrifying the oil field represent just a few examples of the burgeoning large loads reshaping our energy landscape. Tune into our webinar as we dig into the nuances of our power demand forecast:”

Enverus Blog - 6 reasons to attend Enverus’ 2023 EVOLVE Conference

ConocoPhillips Buys Marathon for $22.5 Billion | Playing in the Big Leagues

Making a major splash in corporate M&A, ConocoPhillips has agreed to buy Marathon Oil for $22.5 billion, inclusive of $5.4 billion in net debt. The transaction represents a pivot in U.S. shale M&A from deals focused on increasing exposure in a single key basin or play to acquiring a multi-basin operator. Conoco is leveraging its premium market valuation, which it shares with the majors, to strike a deal that will immediately boost its free cash flow profile and enhance its capital return program for investors. Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR)* states that combining with Marathon will boost Conoco’s market cap to more than $150 billion, extending its lead as the largest independent producer and placing it broadly in the same scale as majors, above BP and behind Shell.

The deal also adds 2,600 net remaining drilling locations to Conoco’s portfolio, giving it about 13,000 net remaining untapped locations across its U.S. shale resource plus the Montney in Canada. EIR calculates about 30% of the total deal value is being paid for the Marathon shale inventory, after allocating value for existing production and Equatorial Guinea. In particular, the deal boosts Conoco’s position in the Eagle Ford by increasing its net location count by 85%. While the inventory already screens relatively attractively, Conoco will look to improve economics on these locations with operational efficiencies. Overall Marathon’s inventory life is shorter than Conoco’s existing portfolio at their stand alone drilling cadences, but given Conoco’s pre-deal inventory depth it was under less pressure to extend inventory life compared to smaller E&Ps.

Conoco will also likely look to sell off portions of the Marathon portfolio it views as non-core. A likely candidate is Marathon’s position in the Anadarko Basin. The position produces about 45,000 boe/d, has more than 400 net remaining drilling locations and would be a good fit for a company like the private Continental Resources.

For Marathon, the sale looks like a positive outcome for shareholders. In addition to the 15% premium, comparable to what other E&Ps have received in the wave of corporate consolidation, they will receive equity in a company with a top tier inventory life and strong capital return program further enhanced by the 34% boost in Conoco’s base dividend. Conoco further plans to buy back more than $20 billion in shares in the three years after the deal closes, more than covering the additional equity issued to purchase Marathon. Selling to Conoco provides a more certain positive reaction from Wall Street and future stability versus attempting a merger with another similar sized company, as was rumored to be in the works with Devon Energy last year. Given the increased regulatory scrutiny for oil and gas deals and Conoco’s existing scale, the deal is likely to receive close scrutiny from the FTC. Working in its favor for approval is the multi-basin nature of the Marathon assets versus concentrated regional exposure like the recent large combination in the Permian. The largest area of concentration –  and potential FTC concern –will be the Eagle Ford where Conoco will jump EOG to become the largest operator with 400,000 boe/d of gross operated production compared to EOG’s 300,000 boe/d gross operated production.

*About Enverus Intelligence®| Research

Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. See additional disclosures here.

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