gen-ai-blog

What happens when GenAI makes everyone a power user?

We’re all about to find out.

As a general rule, software designed for people with deep expertise in a technical field brings to the table both a great deal of power and a steep learning curve, and it doesn’t really matter what that technical field is. Are you an audio/video technician doing post-production work to make a movie? It helps a lot to know how to use Apple’s Final Cut Pro. Are you a reservoir engineer building a visual dashboard that quantifies the efficiency of DSU-level oil and gas recovery? Well, knowing your way around Enverus PRISM® goes a long way toward getting the job done well and quickly. Regardless of your profession, working effectively requires having expertise in your technical domain and working efficiently means applying that expertise with the software tools best suited to the workflow.

But what if tomorrow’s world isn’t like that anymore? What if the software of the future does the work of understanding what you need instead of you having learn how to use the software? Well, you won’t have to wonder for long, because that future is now.

Take a look at the short video below:

What you just saw is functioning software, and it won’t be long before it’s in the hands of customers!

That’s right – the Instant Analyst technology that we announced just two weeks ago is coming to PRISM. The Intelligence Vault already has Instant Analyst features enabled for a group of trial customers, helping them get faster answers to complex questions using our vast research library as its knowledge base. Very soon, PRISM will also be added to that knowledge base.

As the video above shows, what this means is that you will soon be able to simply ask PRISM questions like “How many active rigs are there in the Midland Basin?” and not only get the direct answer to the question, but also have further details revealed to you in a rich workbook of visualizations providing excellent context and further detail. In this example, you’ll access detailed information like which drilling contractor is running each rig, which operators they are drilling for, and much more. The “one click” workbook options are selected for you by the Instant Analyst from the workbook library carefully built by our Intelligence team and our principal consultants for the past decade. You can then customize the workbook view further if you like.

As useful as that simple example is for many users, the Instant Analyst can already handle much more complex questions and will get even more powerful over time. By combining the tremendous breadth of PRISM and its underlying data with the new capabilities of our AI, we can already see a path to enable every user to quickly become a power user!

Learn more about Instant Analyst and stay up to date on the latest Enverus Gen AI innovation here.

energy-transition-group-of-professionals-meeting

Energy Transition Today | U.S. Emissions Stocktake

As the world debated the complexities of achieving net zero at last year’s COP28, regulatory pressures continued to increase in the U.S as the EPA announced its final Quad O rules aimed at sharply reducing methane emissions. Combined with the proposed updates to Subpart W of the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program and the IRA’s methane fee or Waste Emissions Charge, we believe the next five years will prove critical for operators to adjust to the requirements of these separate but interconnected rulemakings.

In light of these regulations, our U.S. emissions stocktake evaluates progress in the upstream and gathering sectors based on the latest EPA-reported data, analyzing trends from 2020 to 2022. We rank the top-producing operators by emission intensity in 2022, highlighting where operator efforts are paying off and which sources are harder to abate (Figure 1).

Of the top 50 U.S. operators in 2022 by production volumes, over two-thirds reported Y/Y decreases in cross-sector emission intensity; however, 18 companies still sit above the broader U.S. average of 13.3 kg CO2e/boe. The report dives into 20 of the most- and least-improved names on an intensity basis.

Research Highlights

Prism Signal | Alberta’s Renewed Path for Renewables

This report is designed to visualize the impact of Alberta’s renewable power policy update. It leverages shapefiles of Alberta’s land and overlaps them with Enverus Intelligence Research’s Power and Renewables data sets to identify at-risk projects that are affected by this new policy.

LCFS Price Forecast | Fool’s Gold Rush

A deep dive into the volatile California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit market, including our forward pricing forecast and the impact it will have on capital investment and equities in the low carbon fuels sector.

U.S. Gas-Fired Generation | Fanning the Flame

Enverus Intelligence Research presents an updated view on the future of U.S. natural gas-fired generation after an outlier step change in 2023.

Enverus Press Release - Unearthing the potential beneath deepwater fracturing

Unearthing the potential beneath deepwater fracturing

CALGARY, Alberta (Mar. 13, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading generative AI and energy-dedicated SaaS company, has released a report that assesses fracturing parameters and recovery enhancement within the Gulf of Mexico’s (GOM) Lower Tertiary play and analyzes project economics. 

“Growth of oil production from the Gulf of Mexico depends on operators successfully developing reservoirs found in what the energy industry calls the Lower Tertiary geological trend,” said Marvin Ma, report author and a vice president at EIR. “Developing the resource is challenging because the reservoirs typically contain ultra-high pressure and low permeability, so modern drilling and fracturing technologies are critical to unleashing their potential.” 

“The market is under-appreciating the role of hydraulic fracturing in the Gulf of Mexico — and its role in growing the Lower Tertiary play and potentially other offshore regions,” added Andy McConn, director and head of commercial intelligence at EIR. 

Key takeaways: 

  • EIR estimates the Lower Tertiary play will lead the GOM’s oil expansion with a production compound annual growth rate of 22% between 2023 and 2028. 
  • Only four operators have fractured 27 wells in the past decade, representing half of the Lower Tertiary producer wells. 
  • EIR has found that three to five zones can be fractured for each well, with an average treatment time of two days per zone. 
  • For the Julia, Saint Malo and Stones fields, EIR believes estimated ultimate recovery (EURs) increase by 6-10 MMbbl/well after fracturing stimulation occurs.  

You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report. 

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus’ expert analysts. 

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Intelligence® Research and Enverus Core®.  

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS platform, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 98% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 35,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

View all press releases at Enverus.com/newsroom.

Enverus blog - Sundown on California solar power premiums

Finding Common Ground: Solar Projects Near O&G Operations

As solar generation continues to dominate the renewable energy industry, siting projects is becoming increasingly difficult. With new projects entering the interconnection queue every day, available land for solar development is rapidly diminishing. Traditional sites, such as flat, open parcels, have already been thoroughly explored and developed. Solar developers are finding out they need to get innovative to find their next project site.

An unlikely solution may lie within the oil and gas industry – operational oil and gas sites. Although a solar farm being built around oil and gas infrastructure may seem far-fetched, solar developers are able to solve a significant energy problem for energy-hungry, remote oil and gas assets. For example, the Lost Hills Solar Project in Kern County, California has been providing power exclusively to Chevron’s Lost Hills oil field facilities for almost four years. As developers look to replicate this successful partnership, there are several things to consider when evaluating potential site options: congestion, capacity factor, high energy prices/power purchase agreement securement and infrastructure limitations.

Congestion in Texas

West Texas is home to the Permian Basin, one of the most prolific oil fields in the world, and activity is expected to increase both for the upstream and midstream aspects. Increased activity means more electricity demand, leading to an increase in the required load in an area where congestion and constraint problems already exist. Oil and gas wells, pipelines, and surface facilities in West Texas will require a substantial amount of electricity to continue running as the activity in the basin increases. However, renewable developers must know where these assets are located to make them part of their land selection process as exclusion layers. Renewable developers eyeing areas with existing oil and gas operations must exclude these assets when assessing the viability of solar project sites.

Capacity Factor in West Texas

Why is West Texas an interesting place for solar development around oil and gas assets? Because of high-capacity factor. Capacitor factor is the ratio of the electrical energy produced by a power plant compared to the electrical energy that could have been produced at continuous full power operation during the same period. The capacity factor can vary greatly for solar projects and is especially dependent on where they are located. Solar projects in an area with high solar radiation are more efficient than solar projects of the same design in a lower radiation area. West Texas has the highest global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in the state, making it the ideal area for solar production.

A Potential Win-Win Relationship

Despite the challenge posed by numerous oil and gas facilities in identifying optimal sites for solar projects in Texas, they can serve as strategic assets for creative project placement, enhancing the prospects of success. These facilities, including wells and surface installations, demand significant electricity, particularly in regions where congestion drives up energy prices. This high demand makes oil and gas companies eager to secure power purchase agreements (PPAs) with renewable energy providers early in the development process, streamlining project timelines. Moreover, utilizing solar-generated electricity to power oil and gas operations not only reduces energy expenses but also mitigates emissions, potentially aligning with the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals of oil and gas companies seeking to bolster their sustainability initiatives.

Lack of Infrastructure

Oil and gas production is growing at a rate that cannot be sustained by the electric grid, especially if operators want to meet their emissions targets. The existing power generation capacity falls short of meeting the demands of transitioning facilities moving to grid power, new facilities coming online, and the retirement of outdated power plants. When oil and gas operators try to connect to the grid, they are met with insufficient capacity. To combat this problem, oil and gas producers have had to take drastic action, like building their own infrastructure. Diamondback Energy recently developed their own microgrid to support operations in the Midland area. New solar generation in the heart of oil and gas territory is not only wanted, but desperately needed.

Customizable Buildable Acreage Analysis

Choosing to site a solar project near oil and gas operations can help narrow down the search for a project site, but it is important to further analyze the area to find the most buildable land for the project. The Enverus Customizable Buildable Acres (CBA) tool can be used to refine the search and navigate land buildability in areas with oil and gas infrastructure.

In West Texas, there are several planned transmission lines that are attractive for solar developers to site their projects close to. Although there are planned lines in the very popular Midland area, a little bit further southwest is Oncor and LCRA’s North McCamey – Sand Lake planned line. This line is still deep into oil and gas territory but should yield more options for siting as it is not directly in the Midland area.

The western portion of the North McCamey – Sand Lake line has two operating projects within 3 miles with a total capacity of about 100 megawatts. This is an appealing area for a new solar project. Zooming in on this portion of the line will narrow down the potential parcels for easier analysis using the CBA tool.

Enverus Power & Renewables Suitable Land Analytics | Numerous filterable options in CBA can help narrow down the best project sites

CBA settings can be tailored to a developer’s exact needs and interests. Slope, canopy and wetlands are some of the more commonly used features, but analysis in areas heavy with oil and gas facilities is supported by specialized information, like Oil and Gas Wells. The Oil and Gas Wells feature in CBA uses data directly from Enverus.

After running CBA on the area, developers can zoom into each parcel to examine the specifics and select the parcel that is perfect for their project. Yellow areas are buildable;other colors designate reasons why land is not buildable, for example, an oil and gas well or pipeline is located on the buildable land.

Conclusion

With less prime land available for solar development, developers must get creative to find their next location for their solar projects. Although siting the next project near oil and gas operations may seem strange at first, it solves a need for oil and gas operators. The CBA tool can help uncover opportunities for solar projects within oil and gas assets. It is a tool that can be used for general analysis of land buildability as well as for specialized analysis, like siting at oil and gas operations.  

Interested in learning how CBA can help you identify your next solar project? Reach out to our experts below and we will be glad to show you.


Enverus Press Release - Midwest transportation failure strands highly anticipated CCUS opportunities

Midwest transportation failure strands highly anticipated CCUS opportunities

CALGARY, Alberta (March 7, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy-dedicated SaaS company, has released a report examining emissions from Midwest ethanol facilities left without a connection to carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) projects after Navigator CO2’s Heartland Greenway pipeline was canceled, and Summit Carbon Solutions’ chance to add these ethanol plants to its planned CO2 pipeline route. EIR also evaluates the options available for Navigator’s 11 planned Class VI injection wells in central Illinois that are now cut off from their intended CO2 source following the pipeline cancellation.

“The cancellation of Navigator CO2’s pipeline left dozens of ethanol facilities planning to capture and store CO2 without transportation, but also presents an opportunity for Summit Carbon Solutions to expand its project network,” said Brad Johnston, senior geology associate at EIR. “The pipeline cancellation also adds uncertainty to the 11 Class VI permits in central Illinois intending to connect to the Navigator system, leaving them with very few economic sources of capturable CO2 nearby.”

Key takeaways:

  • The cancellation of Navigator CO2’s Heartland Greenway CO2 pipeline in the U.S. Midwest left almost 9 mtpa of ethanol-related CO2 emissions without a secured CCUS transportation route. Valero Energy, Poet and Big River Resources are the largest emitters of CO2 from ethanol facilities within 10 miles of the scrapped pipeline.
  • The pipeline abandonment allowed Summit Carbon Solutions to pick up Poet’s CO2 emissions previously contracted to Navigator. Other ethanol facilities within Navigator’s corridor could also land in Summit’s hands.
  • Navigator’s exit leaves its Class VI applications stranded from their intended CO2 sources. The injection wells, now undergoing EPA review, will need to find other nearby sources of CO2 emissions.
  • Hurdles remain for Summit to succeed in building its sprawling CO2 pipeline network. It will have to navigate undefined and uncertain state- and county-level policies across multiple states and await changes related to forthcoming federal CO2 pipeline safety requirements.
Enverus chart showing Navigator Co2 Heartland Greenway pipeline and ethanol facilities within a 10 mile radius

You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus’ expert analysts.

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus ESG® Analytics and Enverus Infrastructure.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS platform, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 98% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 35,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

Enverus Press Release - Blue hydrogen: Greening the bottom line

The Road to Clean Hydrogen’s Commercial Liftoff

hydrogen-inventory-and-resource-potential-for-solar-wind-and-carbon

Hydrogen technology has received a lot of attention over the past few years due to ambitious decarbonization targets and transformative funding programs. With the majority of tracked U.S. clean hydrogen capacity skewed to early development stages, the hype has yet to translate to commercial liftoff. Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) anticipates a wide range of project outcomes as this nascent industry attempts to scale and believes that defensible business models must demonstrate access to superior asset quality, robust innovation ecosystems and supportive partners. We explored the topic in detail, including evaluations of individual projects, in our inaugural 45-slide Hydrogen Fundamentals deck released last month.

Proximity to abundant, low-cost resource is crucial to project costs. For example, we model 40% lower unsubsidized green hydrogen costs in Texas compared to Appalachia based on higher solar and wind capacity factors and lower electricity costs. Subsidies enable a 46% median reduction in green hydrogen production costs, but the technology still trails behind subsidized blue economics without additional cost reductions, green premiums or additional funding. Our modeling suggests that blue projects are competitive with gray after tax credits and deserve more attention.

Mobility, power and alternative fuels are the most cited use cases for clean hydrogen in the U.S., although only 30% of developers disclosed offtakers among tracked projects. We believe that the lowest-risk projects are those with access to gray-for-clean substitution opportunities. Furthermore, there is significant potential for unlocking substantial overseas offtake, particularly in Europe and Asia.

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Research Highlights

LCFS price forecast – Fool’s gold rush – A deep dive into the volatile California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit market, including our forward pricing forecast and the impact it will have on capital investment and equities in the low carbon fuels sector.

U.S. gas-fired generation – Fanning the flame – EIR presents an updated view on the future of U.S. natural gas-fired generation after an outlier step change in 2023.

Geothermal anywhere – Prioritizing non-conventional project locations – New drilling technologies are enabling geothermal projects to be sited outside of traditional areas in the Western U.S., expanding the market for this renewable energy source. This report provides an overview of key drivers of project economics and identifies which locations might be optimal for future expansion.

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Enverus Press Release - Progress continues in US oil and gas emissions reduction efforts

Progress continues in US oil and gas emissions reduction efforts

CALGARY, Alberta (March 6, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading and energy-dedicated SaaS company, has released a report that serves as a U.S. emissions stocktake for the oil and gas sector, evaluating industry progress based on the latest data issued by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

In the report, EIR analyzes trends in the upstream and gathering sectors from 2020-2022, highlighting where operator efforts are paying off and which sources are harder to mitigate. EIR’s analysis also compares the top-producing operators and identifies the main reasons behind the most notable step changes in emission intensity.

“The upstream and gathering sectors successfully reduced venting and flaring emissions while still increasing production from 2020-2022, leading to a 12% drop in emission intensity across the Lower 48,” said Ivana Petrich, senior associate with EIR.

“Operator performance varied, however, and we believe the next five years will prove critical for companies to address easier-to-abate emissions ahead of quickly changing regulations. Despite a 23% drop in reported methane emissions, we calculate that many plays would still, on average, be exposed to the Inflation Reduction Act’s waste emissions charge that came into effect on Jan. 1, based on 2022 emissions,” Petrich said.

Key takeaways:

  • Reported upstream and gathering emissions fell from 2020-2022, albeit at a decelerating pace, mainly because of decreases in upstream venting and flaring emissions. Total emissions declined by 5% despite a 9% increase in production, leading to a 12% drop in emission intensity across the Lower 48.
  • Total reported methane emissions decreased by 23% from 2020 to 2022 ahead of the final Quad O rules and the Inflation Reduction Act waste emission charge. Despite this, EIR calculates that eight of the 13 top-producing U.S. plays would still, on average, breach the EPA’s upstream methane intensity threshold based on 2022 emissions.
  • Of the top 50 U.S. operators in 2022 by production volumes, over two-thirds reported Y/Y decreases in cross-sector emission intensity; however, 18 companies still sit above the broader U.S. average.
Graph of reported upstream methane intensities of top-producing plays

Additional Resources:

You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus’ expert analysts.

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Intelligence® Research and Enverus ESG® Analytics.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS platform, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 98% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 35,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

View all press releases at Envers.com/newsroom.

Enverus Press Release - The surprisingly balanced global LNG market

Natural gas supply purgatory: Is LNG the beacon of hope?

This blog is based on a segment of CBC’s “Business Report, Calgary Eyeopener with Loren,” featuring Enverus Intelligence® Research’s (EIR)* very own Al Salazar. Listen to the full segment here.

The natural gas industry is facing many challenges lately. Prices are trending towards historically low levels, and this economic instability has attracted attention. Especially, the consequences of this decline have sparked discussions among industry experts on its causes, effects and prospects.

Current trends and their impact

Natural gas prices have plummeted – a bleak situation for the energy sector. This decline is driven by very warm temperatures and a late 2023 L-48 production surge that has created an untenable supply glut, a term that EIR’s Al Salazar has fittingly called a “supply purgatory.” It’s a strange place to be in. At one point, winter gas prices were cheaper than summer. Quite the anomaly indeed. Furthermore, this supply abundance still exists despite a perfect bullish January storm, where significant supply shut-ins coupled with gas-fired generation load that came close to rivalling summer peaks. In the end, it’s just too much supply with nowhere to go.

Producers will suffer from these extremely low prices. Even the biggest players in the market, such as Chesapeake, must reduce their production levels significantly. On the other hand, for most consumers, the falling prices do not motivate additional consumption as their needs arebased on weather, not price. This results in response lags between consumers and producer behavior, with storage serving as the market shock absorber– and it, too, is signalling extreme surplus.

It is remarkable that under these conditions, some regions, such as Alberta, have a slight edge in these difficult times. Alberta’s natural gas producers have a world class resource in the Montney where supply costs are very competitive, while the resource is “liquids-rich” providing an additional revenue stream. This offers some insulation against low natural gas price pressures.

However, logistical constraints and high storage levels in the U.S., create serious headwinds for Alberta supply seeking a reprieve.

The road ahead

Despite the gloomy outlook for the near future, there’s a possibility of recovery with the anticipated progress of liquid natural gas (LNG) projects. This opportunity could greatly change the situation in the market, offering some respite. In fact, Al Salazar’s team predicts that:

“…gas prices will reach $5.00/MMBtu in 2025-26. Significant gas growth is needed to fill LNG export capacity additions and meet existing demand. Half of the growth will be filled with Gulf Coast dry gas requiring a 12% CAGR for the Haynesville over this period. Furthermore, sustained $5.00/MMbtu should be adequate for producers to achieve this growth rate while maintaining a 50% reinvestment rate.” (Enverus Intelligence Research, 11/02/2024)

At the moment, the industry seems to be frozen in a dilemma, struggling with urgent issues but also optimistic about the potential benefits that could result from the growth of LNG. The industry is facing extraordinary difficulties and needs to make crucial decisions. As usual, we will have to be patient and watch what happens as timing is everything.

Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc., a subsidiary of Enverus, provides the Enverus Intelligence® | Research (EIR) products. See additional disclosures.

Authors:

al-salazar
Al Salazar – EIR Contributor*

Al Salazar is a seasoned member of the Enverus Intelligence team, bringing over 23 years of experience in the energy industry with a focus on fundamental analysis of oil, natural gas, and power. Throughout his career, Al has held key positions at EnCana/Cenovus and Suncor, where he honed his skills in forecasting, hedging, and corporate strategy. Al’s 15-year tenure at EnCana/Cenovus was particularly impactful, where he contributed significantly to the company’s success. AL earned his bachelor’s degree in Applied Energy Economics from the University of Calgary in 2000, followed by an MBA with honors from Syracuse University in 2007. Al’s academic background, coupled with his extensive professional experience, has equipped him with a deep understanding of the energy industry’s complexities and the necessary skills to navigate them effectively.

Chris leads the development and communication of the value these products provide various industries, including oilfield services, investment funds, wealth management departments, banks, E&P oil and gas departments, and midstream operators. Chris helps provide customers across the energy ecosystem with the intelligent connections and actionable insights that allow them to uncover new opportunities and thrive. 

Enverus News Release - Utility growth prospects: Quantifying long and short opportunities

Successfully Navigating the Interconnection Queue With Project Probability

Overwhelmed Interconnection Queue and High Project Attrition

In the rapidly evolving landscape of the power market, the interconnection queue stands at a critical juncture for new energy projects seeking to integrate with the grid. The recent surge in renewable energy projects has left the queue overwhelmed, with regulatory framework and infrastructure struggling to keep pace. The ability of the existing grid to accommodate new entrants without compromising reliability has proven a major challenge, driving up network upgrade costs while also increasing delays for projects waiting in the queue. The growing backlog and rising costs have left developers, traders, and the pace of the energy transition adversely impacted as the interconnection queue has turned into a bottleneck for the deployment of new energy sources.

Only a fraction of projects entering the interconnection queue reach final approval and construction. For PJM, more than 130,000 MW of proposed renewable energy projects have been withdrawn in the past 10 years; comparable cases can be observed for all other ISOs (Figure 1). There is a high attrition rate, with many projects ultimately withdrawing due to feasibility issues, budgetary constraints or regulatory hurdles. In addition to impeding the expansion of renewable energy, this bottleneck raises risk and uncertainty for investors and developers. At the end of 2023, more than 7,500 projects representing more than 1350 GW of generation and storage were seeking grid interconnection in the U.S. However, most of this proposed capacity ultimately will not be constructed. Historically, from 2007-2023, only an estimated 20% of projects requesting interconnection were able to reach commercial operation – 80% had withdrawn from the queue (Figure 2).

total-suspended-project-capacity-mw-across-each-iso-over-the-past-10-years
Figure 1. Total suspended project capacity (MW) across each ISO over the past 10 years
total-project-capacity-mw-by-project-status
Figure 2. Total project capacity (MW) by project status (operating and suspended) and interconnection request year across all seven ISOs (2007-2023)

Understanding the likelihood of a project’s completion is critical for asset developers and energy traders. Project feasibility, cost and timeline are all strongly impacted by queue position. Developers must navigate these uncertainties, balancing the potential returns and risks associated with the interconnection queue. Conversely, energy traders need to evaluate the impact of new projects on supply, prices and market dynamics. Ultimately, a project’s status in the interconnection queue is a valuable piece of intelligence as the integration of new generation capacity has the potential to shift energy markets significantly.

A New Way to Evaluate the Interconnect Queue: Project Probability

To counter the speculative nature of projects in the interconnection queue, Enverus PRISM®’s Project Tracking solution has added Project Completion Probability score, which provides insights into which power projects have a higher probability to be built. The project probability score is produced by a binary classification machine learning model that analyzes and predicts the probability of success of every renewable generation project in the interconnection queue across ISOs. The model is trained on all historically operating and withdrawn projects within a respective ISO, and dynamically assigns each project a likelihood using significant project factors such as status, capacity, owner and developer, etc. This score is continuously updated as the project progresses through the queue. Project Completion Probability scores can provide insight into identifying prime locations for project development. This map from PRISM displays all proposed projects in Virginia in the PJM Interconnection Queue (Figure 3). The light blue dots in the map below indicate a Project Completion Probability score over 50% likelihood of reaching commercial operations, while the red dots indicate all projects under a 50% likelihood, or less likely to reach commercial operations.

most-projects-in-pjms-interconnection-queue-in-virginia-have-a-high-likelihood-not-to-break-ground
Figure 3. Most projects in PJM’s interconnection queue in Virginia have a high likelihood not to break ground

For further insight into location siting, the row chart on the left provides a breakdown of Virginia counties and their average Project Completion Probability score (Figure 4). We can see that King William County in Virginia is the county with the highest average of projects likely to be completed at 33%. Within Virginia, we can also take a look at which developers in the state have the most success in bringing projects to completion. The row chart on the right provides a breakdown of the top fifteen developers in Virginia that have the most success in bringing projects to completion, with Open Road Renewables having the highest average project likelihood score, followed by NextEra Energy Resources (Figure 5). Armed with this data, developers can now more effectively evaluate the potential of competing planned projects coming online and plan their next project site accordingly.

counties-in-virginia-with-highest-average-project-score
Figure 4. Counties in Virginia with the highest average project probability score

For energy traders, project probability can also be used to compute the impact of proposed projects on congestion. In Panorama, after filtering out projects with a higher likelihood of completion (> 30%), in the area chart we can see the cumulative impact of these projects on the Etowanda to Hillside constraint over the next couple years. With this information, traders can make better assessments of where congestion may occur if a planned project does come online.

panorama-enverus-plants-table-and-system-map
Figure 6. Panorama Enverus Plants table and System Map

Conclusion

With the interconnection queue overwhelmed by the growing surge of renewable energy initiatives, it has made it increasingly difficult to identify viable projects. To successfully navigate the market, asset developers and traders must stay informed about each ISO’s power market dynamics and how generation mix can shift going forward. The Project Completion Probability score in the Project Tracking solution gives the ultimate advantage in navigating through queue uncertainties and complexities and help identify the projects most likely to reach commercial operation.

Interested in learning how Project Probability in the Project Tracking solution can help you identify which projects have a higher likelihood to be built? Reach out to our experts below and we will be glad to show you. 

Enverus News Release - Enverus launches Learning & Development program to empower energy data professionals

Empowering success through dynamic customer education: A Look into our Learning & Development initiatives

In today’s fast-paced and ever-evolving business landscape, continuous learning and development are essential components for both personal and professional growth. At Enverus, we understand the pivotal role that education plays in empowering our valued customers and internal teams to thrive. That’s why our Learning & Development (L&D) Team is dedicated to providing a comprehensive and accessible learning experience that goes beyond traditional training methods.

What does L&D offer?

Customer education lies at the heart of our mission. We believe that an informed and skilled customer base is fundamental to mutual success. To achieve this, our L&D Team goes above and beyond by offering tailored programs, webinars and personalized learning paths designed to address the unique needs of our diverse customer base. Whether it’s product onboarding, live virtual sessions or targeted education for specific personas and segments, we ensure that learning is accessible and relevant. Our customer education program spans our Enverus product suite, including resources for Enverus PRISM®, Power & Renewables, and others.  

One of the cornerstones of our learning initiatives is our Education & Training Library. This digital repository serves as a centralized hub for a wealth of resources, including tutorials, tools, workflows, webinars and certification courses. Carefully curated to cater to various learning preferences and skill levels, the Education Library is accessible to all members of our customer base. Whether you’re a newcomer looking to familiarize yourself with our products through an onboarding or an industry veteran seeking to stay updated on the latest trends, our Education Library has something for everyone.

Education & Training Library

But our commitment to learning doesn’t stop there. We understand that the energy landscape is constantly evolving, presenting new challenges and opportunities. That’s why our L&D Team continually updates and expands our offerings to ensure that our customers and internal teams are equipped with the knowledge and skills needed to navigate these changes successfully. From professional skills-based certification courses to curated office hours, we provide a comprehensive education that propels success in today’s dynamic environment.

Professional certifications

Discover more about our L&D initiatives and unlock your full potential with Enverus.

Learning sites

Energy changes fast and the skills needed in the industry have changed too. Enverus custom Learning Sites provide employees with the skills and knowledge that empower your business to compete in the industry today. Each site provides a dedicated experience for employees to show professional growth and development opportunities.

Interested in learning more?

Enverus L&D provides educational content for customers and energy professionals looking to level up their knowledge of Enverus product suite. For more information, please contact your sales representative or the L&D Team below.

Add in a contact form to contact sales for the certification programs and Learning Sites.

Add in a contact form that directs them to L&D team: [email protected]

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