renewable-energy-solutions-for-traders

Interconnection Queue Review: Southern Company’s Evolving Energy Landscape

Southern Company (SoCo), a leading energy provider in the United States, has established itself through a commitment to reliability and innovation in generation, transmission and wholesale energy. As a parent company to several prominent electric companies, including Alabama Power, Georgia Power and Mississippi Power, it plays a crucial role in delivering electricity to millions of homes, businesses and industries across the Southeast.

As the energy landscape evolves, interconnection queue trends provide a glimpse into the region’s commitment to a more sustainable and resilient energy future. Interconnection queues, which track pending and approved power projects waiting to connect to the grid, offer insights into SoCo’s future capacity, technology advancements and renewable integration. As part of Enverus Project Tracking Analytics, we meticulously review project development processes within various utility and interconnection queues, ensuring a comprehensive project analysis.

Overall capacity growth in SoCo since 2016

Figure 1- Enverus P&R Project Tracking: Total capacity proposed from 2008-2024, by year and current status

Over the past 8 years, the SoCo utility queue has undergone a dramatic shift. From 2008 through 2015, 22,031 MWs were proposed in the interconnection queue. From those queue positions, 6,519 MW ultimately became operational, a success rate under 30%. Most of that development was proposed in 2010; the Vogtle Nuclear Plant was added to the queue that year and it accounts for 4,658 of the 5,589 currently operating MWs stemming from queue positions in that year.

In 2016, however, the total proposed capacity that entered the queue jumped to 11,045 MW, more capacity than the previous five years combined. And since then, the proposed capacity entering the queue each year has consistently stayed close to that level or above it.

This trend extends to the actual operating capacity realized by post-2016 queue positions as well. For queue positions dated 2016 and later, 12,221 MW of now-operating capacity has been added to the queue, an average of 1,358 MW per year. Those values are significantly up from 2008-2015, when an average of 815 MW now-operating capacity were added per year. That value is also not accounting for the fact that some post-2016 queue positions are still in development but will eventually get built, pushing those numbers even higher.

Energy mix shifts towards renewables

Figure 2- Enverus P&R Project Tracking: Total capacity proposed from 2008-2024, by year and project type

When we turn our attention beyond the overall capacity numbers, to the specific energy mix being developed in SoCo, a complicated picture emerges. Since 2016, solar and storage proposals have been flooding the queue, with solar making up 61% of all new proposed capacity and storage another 23%. However, these projects are struggling to reach completion, and the SoCo energy mix remains heavy on traditional fuel sources like gas and coal.

Figures 3.1 and 3.2- Enverus P&R Project Tracking: Operating capacity with 2008-2015 queue dates, by project type (left); Operating capacity with 2016-2024 queue dates, by project type (right).

Figures 4.1-4.3- Enverus P&R Project Tracking: Combined gas, coal and nuclear capacity with 2016-2024 queue dates, by status (left); Solar capacity with 2016-2024 queue dates, by status (center); Storage capacity with 2016-2024 queue dates, by status (right)

How does the queue align with SOCO’s integrated resource plans

SoCo’s focus on the clean energy transition is not only evident via the interconnection queue, but also the goals set forth via the most recent integrated resource plans (IRPs) from Alabama Power (2023 IRP), Georgia Power (2023 IRP) and Mississippi Power (2021 IRP). These plans outline each company’s goals for their energy mix through 2044.

Figure 5- Enverus P&R Project Tracking: Most recent IRP goals from Alabama Power, Georgia Power and Mississippi Power, by project types and planned implementation year
Figure 6- Enverus P&R Project Tracking: Projected capacity changes by fuel type over next 20 years, via the most recent IRP goals from Alabama Power, Georgia Power and Mississippi Power

Those three companies have specified that they plan to transition in particular to more natural gas, solar, and energy storage over the next 20 years in an effort to significantly reduce their reliance on coal.

The queue does not seem to align with the plans laid out in these IRPs. For example, in the SoCo queue, there are 24,809 MW of planned solar projects, whereas the IRPs indicate plans to introduce only 12,178 MW of solar and solar + storage by 2044. This likely reflects a clogged queue, with far more projects in the queue than could feasibly be built.

Looking to the future

What can these trends tell us about the future of the SoCo energy landscape?

Figure 7- Enverus P&R Project Tracking: Capacity added from 2008-2030, by operating date and project type

In examining the SoCo interconnection queue, a few noteworthy trends emerge. There plainly exists a will to build more sustainable capacity in the southeast, as evidenced by the continuing prevalence of solar and storage in the queue. Figure 7 above lays out a vision for a SoCo interconnection brimming with solar and battery power in the next six years. If all the projects currently in development were to become operational, by 2030 an astounding 60% of SoCo’s energy mix would be solar and storage.

However, these projects have thus far struggled to get built at the same rate as gas, coal and nuclear projects. If current trends hold around solar and storage projects, the mix is likely to remain heavy on those conventional technologies, and we may see even more natural gas proposals, as the utility embraces a more balanced approach to maintaining energy diversity amidst the ongoing energy transition.

To see this data in action or to analyze other utilities, submit a data request to view Enverus P&R Project Tracking Analytics. Using Enverus PRISM® historical and future queue tracking, analysts can get a comprehensive understanding of utility and interconnection queue trends. Simplify your power asset planning and analysis with the most extensive power project, grid infrastructure, IRP,  parcel, LMP and economics data available.

Enverus Press Release - Returning to growth: US power demand forecast highlights impact of data centers, EVs and solar

Returning to growth: US power demand forecast highlights impact of data centers, EVs and solar

CALGARY, Alberta (July 16, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS and generative AI company, has released its long-term load forecast model that considers historical drivers of power demand across the Lower 48 U.S. and models variables it believes will impact future load. This includes data centers, electric vehicles (EVs), residential solar and storage, cryptocurrency mines, green hydrogen, carbon capture and storage and electrification trends. The report analyzes the effects these new exponential load drivers will have on our power demand forecasts from 2024-2050 and may be of particular interest to power developers, investment funds, private equity firms and banks.

“We expect daily evening peak to get pushed back by up to five hours during the day by 2038 in regions with the highest growth in behind-the-meter (BTM) solar and storage,” said Riley Prescott, analyst at EIR.

“We believe that data center load estimates across the U.S. are overstated,” Prescott said. “Our model contains more realistic projections for each significant load segment using an unbiased and consistent methodology across the entire U.S.”

“We offer a differentiated and realistic view on load growth in an environment where independent system operators (ISOs) are publishing drastically different forecasts year to year that may contain biases.”

Key takeaways from the report:

  • U.S. total load is forecast to grow 42% by 2050 from today because of population growth, increased data center demand and EV adoption, offset partially by BTM residential solar and storage growth.
  • ERCOT base load stands out, reflecting Texas’ strong population growth and industrial base. Nevertheless, PJM and the Southeast regions will continue to be the highest base load areas with the highest intraday variability.
  • SE, PJM, ERCOT and WEST are projected to experience the highest levels of load growth extending to 2050.
  • Additionally, the SE, WEST and CAISO regions exhibit the highest variability when considering load modifiers, which encompass both adders and offsets.
  • Data center load growth will add 153 GW of capacity by 2050, according to our calculations. PJM and Washington under the Bonneville Power Administration (WEST BPAT) see the most data center-driven load growth given subsea and onshore access to fiber.
  • We expect significant growth in residential solar and storage. Based on annual savings and irradiance, we see Florida and Texas as the areas with the highest demand offset to base load from BTM solar generation.
  • Our PJM forecast benchmarks below the ISO’s primarily due to differences in our data center demand projections. We believe that data center load estimates across the U.S. are overstated: load outlooks from ISOs often incorporate biases either to encourage new policy or add a margin of safety. We believe our model contains more realistic projections for each significant load segment using an unbiased and consistent methodology across the Lower 48.

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Intelligence® Research, Enverus Foundations P&R and Enverus Carbon Innovation Foundations.

You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections between energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Enverus is the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering anytime, anywhere access to analytics and insights for more than 95% of U.S. energy producers and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

View all press releases at Enverus.com/newsroom.

Enverus Press Release - Canadian oil sands: Back in the limelight

Summer Power Market Outlook: ERCOT, PJM, and MISO

ERCOT Summer 2024 Outlook

Dive into our outlook for ERCOT’s summer 2024. We’ll cover the anticipated weather conditions, transmission outages and congestion risks for ERCOT month-by-month to help you navigate the complexities of the ERCOT market this summer.

June 2024

Weather and Load Forecast
  • June is expected to start on the cooler side, especially east of the Rockies. This is influenced by the transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions, leading to lower load due to cooler temperatures.
  • However, lower wind might introduce some bullish tendencies, but June is still expected to be bearish.
Transmission Outages and Congestion Risks
  • West Hub Premium: Long-term transmission outages in the West, impacting West Hub.
  • Congestion Constraints: Yellow Jacket to Hex, Bell County and La Palma to Hand will see congestion, impacting prices.
Prices:
  • Due to higher precipitation and cooler conditions, prices are expected to be lower than market average.
  • There is a risk of volatility in evening non-solar hours.

July 2024

Weather and Load Forecast
  • July is anticipated to be hot, with temperatures averaging above 88°.
  • Southerly winds pushing heat into the plains could lead to increased wind production, offsetting some of the heat-driven demand increases.
Transmission Outages and Congestion Risks
  • Increased Demand: Houston, South and Central Texas will see higher demand, impacting hub basis.
  • Congestion Constraints: Deer Creek, Bell County, Gabriel Transformer and La Palma to Hand are key constraints to monitor.
Prices:
  • Above average load and high wind production may lead to lower net load.
  • Expected heat rate is lower than market.

August 2024

Weather and Load Forecast
  • August is expected to be very hot, with temperatures potentially exceeding 105° in key areas like Dallas and Houston.
  • Reduced solar production due to shorter days and significant heat will drive up demand and prices.
Transmission Outages and Congestion Risks
  • High Solar Capacity: Continued solar additions will increase volatility, particularly in the late afternoon and early evening hours.
  • Congestion Constraints: Yellow Jacket, Deer Creek, Bell County and La Palma to Hand will continue to pose congestion risks.
Prices:
  • Expected August heat rate is very close to market.
  • Expect Peak Net Load HE18-20 to be the riskiest hours in August due to higher contribution from battery discharge.

PJM Summer 2024 Outlook

Let’s cover the summer 2024 outlook for PJM, focusing on weather conditions, load forecasts and congestion risks for June, July and August.

June 2024

Weather and Load Forecast
  • June in PJM is expected to be cooler than average, with temperatures 1-2 degrees below normal.
  • Soil moisture levels are high, contributing to the cooler conditions.
Transmission Outages and Congestion Risks
  • Texans Gardeners Constraint: Key bullish risk early in the month due to line outages.
  • Congestion Constraints: Germantown to Taneytown will see outages affecting the region.
Prices:
  • Advising caution with long positions at current market heat rate.
  • Texans Gardeners congestions lift WHUB and increases sensitivity in the beginning and middle of the month.

July 2024

Weather and Load Forecast
  • July will see temperatures rising above average, particularly influenced by hot weather patterns from 2016.
  • This will increase load, especially in highly populated areas.
Transmission Outages and Congestion Risks
  • ALLE-RPMO: Significant risk due to line outages impacting the West hub basis.
  • Congestion Constraints: Shelby to Miami line outage will drive congestion risks.
Prices:
  • Risk for heatwave like conditions.
  • Bullish market sentiment, large risk if temperatures under perform.

August 2024

Weather and Load Forecast
  • August is projected to be extremely hot, mirroring conditions from previous hot years like 2016 and 2020.
  • This will lead to high load and demand across PJM.
Transmission Outages and Congestion Risks
  • Pleasantville Ashburn Constraint: Bearish impact towards the end of the month due to critical line outages.
  • Congestion Constraints: Enterprise to Shellhorn line outage will impact the region.
Prices:
  • Bullish outlook for demand, market favors a larger risk premium for heat wave events.
  • Bearish risk from PLEAS-ASHB, critical transmission outages later in the month.

MISO Summer 2024 Outlook

Let’s cover the summer 2024 outlook for PJM, focusing on weather conditions, load forecasts and congestion risks for June, July and August.

June 2024

Weather and Load Forecast
  • June in MISO will be relatively average, with some areas experiencing cooler temperatures due to high soil moisture.
  • Wind production will be lower, potentially influencing market conditions.
Transmission Outages and Congestion Risks
  • Maple Lake to Chrysler Constraint: Significant risk due to a critical line outage near Terre Haute, Indiana.
  • Congestion Constraints: Increased sensitivity in Central Indiana will drive congestion risks.
Prices:
  • Prices may be pushed toward a bullish scenario due to a small window of congestion for MAPL-08CHRY with a short line outage.

July 2024

Weather and Load Forecast
  • July will be characterized by hot weather, with increased wind production mitigating some of the heat’s impact on demand.
Transmission Outages and Congestion Risks
  • RAUN-TEKA Constraint: Significant risk due to line outages impacting the MINN HUB.
  • Congestion Constraints: North-to-south flow pressures due to strong wind in Iowa.
Prices:
  • Bullish net demand outlook.
  • Market is pricing to a significant premium due to heatwave like conditions.

August 2024

Weather and Load Forecast
  • August will see very hot conditions, with temperatures influenced by previous extreme years.
Transmission Outages and Congestion Risks
  • Forman Transformer Constraint: Significant risk due to line outages increasing flows in Orville, Minnesota.
  • Congestion Constraints: Key outages will tighten the hub spread, impacting market dynamics.

ERCOT, PJM and MISO summer outlooks indicate a dynamic season for weather patterns and renewable energy generation that will impact market conditions. Want to watch the full outlook for more details? Check out the replay of our webinar here: Summer 2024 Power Markets Outlook: ERCOT, PJM, MISO | Enverus

Find out how publication subscribers conquer power market volatility:
Enverus Press Release - Surfing Europe’s green wave

SPP, NYISO, ISONE Power Market Summer Outlooks

SPP Summer 2024 Outlook

Welcome to our summer outlook for Southwest Power Pool (SPP) for the summer of 2024. We’ll be looking at insights into weather forecasts, load predictions, renewable energy expectations, transmission updates and potential congestion issues and break down the information by month to give you a clear picture of what to expect. Let’s get into it.

June 2024

Weather and Load Forecast:

  • The summer was predicted to start off relatively cool due to La Niña conditions. Soil moisture is high, especially in the northeastern regions, contributing to cooler temperatures.
  • Expect lower load periods at the beginning of the month due to the cooler weather.

Renewable Energy and Transmission:

  • Wind generation is expected to be near to below average SPP.

Price and Congestion:

  • Lower load and wind generation could lead to lower prices.
  • Congestion risks include Wichita Transformer as well as the Gordon Evans Energy Center, driven by demand.

July 2024

Weather and Load Forecast:

  • A warming trend is expected in July, with average temperatures predicted to rise from June.
  • Load is expected to be average with warm weather expected and high CDDs.

Renewable Energy and Transmission:

  • Windy conditions are anticipated, which could lead to increased wind generation and affect market prices.

Price and Congestion:

  • Prices may be lower than expected due to overestimating bullish components.
  • Key congestion points could possibly involve Leland Olds Transformer.

August 2024

Weather and Load Forecast:

  • August poses the highest risk for hotter than expected weather. If tropical activity is lower than predicted, temperatures could rise significantly.
  • Load is expected to peak with the higher temperatures.

Renewable Energy and Transmission:

  • Wind generation might decrease slightly, but the overall renewable contribution remains significant.

Price and Congestion:

  • This month could see higher prices if the weather turns hotter than forecasted and wind generation drops, being the most bullish month for SPP.
  • Watch for congestion around Forman Transformer due to wind imbalances.

NYISO Summer 2024 Outlook

Introduction

Dive into our summer 2024 outlook for NYISO. We’ll quickly review expected weather patterns, load projections, renewable energy performance and transmission issues to equip you with the insights needed to navigate the NYISO market this summer.

June 2024

Weather and Load Forecast:

  • June is expected to be cooler than average due to the lingering effects of La Niña, with high soil moisture levels contributing to lower temperatures.
  • Load is anticipated to be lower than normal for the month due to the cooler weather.

Renewable Energy and Transmission:

  • Renewable generation, particularly wind, is expected to be strong, which could lower market prices.

Price and Congestion:

  • June is expected to have slightly above market prices.
  • Congestion risks include Zone J due to stack inflexibility.

July 2024

Weather and Load Forecast:

  • July is predicted to see temperatures rise to above-average levels, leading to higher electricity demand.
  • Increased load is expected as temperatures rise, particularly in the urban areas.

Renewable Energy and Transmission:

  • Lower than average wind and generation will continue to play a significant role in the market.

Price and Congestion:

  • Prices may increase due to higher demand from elevated temperatures.
  • Key congestion points will likely include Zone J instead of Central East-VC.

August 2024

Weather and Load Forecast:

  • August is projected to also see above average temperatures, leading to higher demand.
  • Increased load is expected as temperatures rise particularly during heatwaves.

Renewable Energy and Transmission:

  • Renewable generation may be slightly lower due to decreased wind generation.

Price and Congestion:

  • Higher prices are likely if temperatures soar and renewable generation drops.
  • Sustained heat could indicate sustained high pricing.

ISO-NE Summer 2024 Outlook

Moving on to our summer 2024 outlook for ISO New England. This blog will provide insights into weather forecasts, load predictions, renewable energy expectations, transmission updates and potential congestion issues, broken down by month to understand and prepare for the market conditions in ISO New England this summer.

June 2024

Weather and Load Forecast:

  • June is expected to be cooler than average, with high soil moisture levels contributing to the lower temperatures.
  • Load is anticipated to be average due to the cooler weather conditions.

Renewable Energy and Transmission:

  • Wind generation is expected to be higher than average.

Price and Congestion:

  • Lower demand and higher renewable generation could keep prices relatively low.

July 2024

Weather and Load Forecast:

  • July is predicted to warm up significantly, with temperatures rising above average, leading to higher electricity demand.
  • Increased load is expected with the rising temperatures, especially due to seeing heatwaves in analog years.

Renewable Energy:

  • Wind generation will continue to lower than average in July.

Price and Congestion:

  • Prices may rise due to higher demand from increased temperatures.

August 2024

Weather and Load Forecast:

  • August is projected to be the hottest month, with temperatures being sustained rather than transient.
  • Peak load is expected during heatwaves, with significant electricity demand in urban areas.

Renewable Energy and Transmission:

  • Renewable generation may decline slightly due to decreased wind

Price and Congestion:

  • Higher prices are likely if temperatures rise and renewable generation decreases.

SPP, NYISO, and ISONE summer outlooks indicate a dynamic season for weather patterns and renewable energy generation that will impact market conditions. Want to watch the full outlook for more details? Check out the replay of our webinar here: Summer 2024 Power Markets Outlook: SPP, NYISO, ISONE | Enverus

power-grid-congestion-3

Capital Currents | Financing the Energy Transition 

Enverus Intelligence® Research’s (EIR) recent The Ways to Play | Energy Transition Opportunities for Financial Participants report offers an in-depth analysis of the current landscape for financial stakeholders in the energy transition. The report provides strategic guidance for both advising and directly investing in this evolving sector. It delineates the essential investment criteria specific to each type of capital pool and aligns these with appropriate energy transition technologies. The report delves into the primary investment drivers for hedge funds, asset managers, investment banks, private equity, private credit and tax equity investors, aligning them with the most suitable energy transition technologies. This framework helps firms determine where to focus their efforts when considering capital allocation and coverage.

Research Highlights

(You must be an Enverus Intelligence® Research subscriber to access links below.)

  • The Ways to Play – Energy Transition Opportunities for Financial Participants – This report continues the framework established in our “The Ways to Play” series. Financial services are the keystone of connecting capital for nascent energy transition technologies; however, the plethora of opportunities is staggering and makes deploying smart capital challenging. Deciphering the risk profiles of these technologies is critical for firms that seek to invest in and advise on the ongoing energy transition.
  • Summertime Sizzle –EIR’s update to oil and gas balances through 2030. The team compares and contrasts our oil view to the IEA’s most recent 2024 Oil Market Report.
  • Global Energy Transition | Infrastructure Dominates 2Q24 Themes – This presentation, shown at the Enverus EVOLVE 2024 Conference, delves into how emissions are being captured today and the global emissions monitoring landscape. We examine what technologies we believe will enhance emission visibility and how to expect those technologies to be deployed.

Global private equity dry powder soared to a record high $2.6 trillion at the end of 2023. Data assessed by EIR confirms that this amount has risen throughout the first two quarters of the year.

About Enverus Intelligence®| Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macro-economic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies, and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Click here to learn more.

operators

Devon Doubles Down in the Willison with $5 Billion Grayson Mill Buy

Joining a hyperactive M&A market, Devon Energy (ranked ninth on Enverus Top Public Operators list) is acquiring EnCap Investments’ Grayson Mill Energy for $5 billion in cash and stock. Like SM’s acquisition of XCL in the Uinta Basin, also purchased from EnCap, the deal points to buyers looking beyond the Permian to find buyable opportunities of scale in an increasingly consolidated market. Grayson Mill was one the largest remaining private opportunities reasonably likely to come up for sale with around 560 remaining gross operated drilling locations and over 100 Mboe/d production. Among remaining private equity-sponsored E&Ps, Grayson Mill has the largest count of remaining undeveloped gross drilling locations, and the quality of the inventory is higher than most other non-Permian opportunities. While Devon still had a substantial runway of remaining drilling inventory, pressure may have been mounting on the company to strike a deal to keep pace with peers that had been rapidly rolling up the remaining opportunities.

While inventory has gotten more expensive as opportunities dwindled, the deal still fits Devon’s generally conservative outlook for M&A focusing on deals where value is largely supported by current production. In this deal, more than 80% of the total deal value Devon is paying for Grayson Mill is for existing production with the remainder going to undeveloped inventory. Devon is paying less than $2 million per undeveloped location. However, the company’s conservative outlook on deals may have prevented Devon from coming out on top in the competition for core Permian opportunities where inventory makes up a larger portion of total deal value and prices can range above $4 million per location. This deal makes the Williston a key region for Devon, where they might otherwise have been a seller if they couldn’t find a large-scale opportunity to replenish dwindling remaining inventory. The deal positions Devon as the fourth largest producer in the Williston Basin based on gross operated production, just beneath the combination of ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil in third place and trailing basin leaders Chord Energy and Continental.

Chord now finds itself in an interesting position. Grayson was a natural acquisition target for Chord with closely fitting operations. Now that the biggest private opportunity to build scale in the Williston is off the table, Chord could find itself an acquisition target in another of the public-public company mergers that have been a key component of recent M&A activity. Chord could also go after other smaller opportunities in the Williston like Kraken Resources or potential non-core sales from companies like Exxon and Chevron, pending closing the Hess deal. Or, after buying Enerplus, Chord may simply sit tight as its 11 years of sub-$55/bbl breakeven inventory leaves it very well positioned in a market that is seeing increasing value for middle-tier drilling locations.

About Enverus Intelligence®| Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser.  See additional disclosures here.

Enverus Press Release - Enverus Integrates With Fendahl to Enhance Energy Trading and Risk Management Solutions

Enverus Integrates With Fendahl to Enhance Energy Trading and Risk Management Solutions

AUSTIN, Texas, (July 10, 2024) —
Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, today announced a strategic integration with Fendahl, a specialist provider of Commodity Trading and Risk Management (CTRM) software solutions, to offer energy traders enhanced solutions for improved risk management and decision-making.

This collaboration will introduce a pre-built connector within Fendahl’s Fusion CTRM platform, providing seamless access to Enverus’ comprehensive data suite. The integration will enable energy traders to efficiently utilize forward curves, settlement prices and foreign exchange data from Enverus’ MarketView Platform Suite. This combined solution aims to accelerate project implementations and deliver faster results by linking Enverus’ robust data API with Fendahl’s modern, customizable CTRM architecture.

Matthew White, CEO of Fendahl, added, “We are thrilled to collaborate with Enverus to deliver cutting-edge solutions that meet the evolving needs of the energy trading sector. Our Fusion CTRM platform, combined with Enverus’ market-leading data insights, offers a powerful tool for traders to navigate market disruptions, set strategic directions, and drive growth.”

The ability for energy traders and risk managers to access and analyze data swiftly is critical in responding to market changes, developing strategies and achieving operational efficiencies. This new integration will empower your trading organization with insights and tools to enable faster integration, improve end-of-day processes and provide a more reliable interface to market data, optimizing their trading strategies and minimizing exposure.

About Enverus
Enverus is the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to maximize value from generative AI, offering anytime, anywhere access to analytics and insights. These include benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from more than 95% of U.S. energy producers and more than 40,000 suppliers. Our platform, with intelligent connections, drives more efficient production and distribution, capital allocation, renewable energy development, investment, and sourcing. Our experienced industry experts support our customers through thought leadership, consulting, and technology innovations. We provide intelligence across the energy ecosystem: renewables, oil and gas, financial institutions, and power and utilities, with more than 6,000 customers in 50 countries. Learn more at Enverus.com.

About Fendahl
Fendahl is a global leader in providing innovative CTRM software solutions, offering tailored solutions to meet the unique needs of businesses. With a team of more than 350 experts, Fendahl delivers the Fusion CTRM platform, a modular and highly customizable software solution designed to streamline commodity trading and risk management processes. Learn more at Fendahl.com.

Media Contacts:

Enverus: Jon Haubert | [email protected]

Fendahl:  [email protected]

Enverus Press Release - Canadian oil sands: Back in the limelight

Summer Power Market Outlook: CAISO and Mid-C

CAISO Summer 2024 Outlook

As we approach the middle of summer 2024, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) region is slated for a season of dynamic weather, shifting energy demands and evolving renewable energy contributions. This blog is a recap of our yearly summer outlook webinar series which provides a comprehensive outlook on what to expect in terms of weather forecasts, electricity load predictions, renewable energy performance, transmission updates and potential congestion issues. CAISO has some interesting new builds coming up with a large majority of them begin battery and solar assets. Let’s dig into what the summer is looking like!

June 2024

Weather and Load Forecast:

  • June was expected to be hotter than average, with several heat waves anticipated.
  • Load was anticipated to increase due to higher temperatures, particularly in Southern California.

Renewable Energy and Transmission:

  • Wind and solar generation were expected to be strong, which will help meet the increased demand.
  • Key transmission concerns include constraints in Southern California.

Price and Congestion:

  • Higher demand and strong renewable generation could lead to moderate prices, depending on the balance of supply and demand.
  • Congestion risks include Southern California driven by increased demand and transmission limitations.

July 2024

Weather and Load Forecast:

  • July is predicted to have a mix of hot and cooler periods, leading to fluctuating electricity demand.
  • Load is expected to rise with increasing temperatures, especially during heat waves.

Renewable Energy and Transmission:

  • Wind and solar generation will continue to be robust, influencing market prices.

Price and Congestion:

  • Prices may rise during hotter periods due to higher demand, but overall July looks bullish.
  • Key congestion points will likely include NP 15 as well as other critical transmission lines affecting major load centers.

August 2024

Weather and Load Forecast:

  • August is projected to be the hottest month, with temperatures potentially reaching high levels across California.
  • Peak load is expected during heat waves, with significant electricity demand in urban areas.

Renewable Energy and Transmission:

  • Renewable generation may decline slightly due to lower wind speeds in late summer.

Price and Congestion:

  • Higher prices are likely if temperatures rise and renewable generation decreases.

MID-C Summer 2024 Outlook

The Mid-Columbia (MID-C) region faces a unique set of challenges and opportunities as we enter the summer of 2024. This blog provides a outlook on the expected weather conditions, load forecasts, renewable energy trends, transmission infrastructure and potential congestion issues. Let’s dig into what the summer is looking like!

June 2024

Weather and Load Forecast:

  • June was expected to be hotter than average, with several days more than 100° in Portland and low 90s in Seattle.
  • Load was anticipated to increase due to higher temperatures, especially during peak heat days.

Renewable Energy and Transmission:

  • Wind generation was expected to be limited, impacting renewable energy contributions.

Price and Congestion:

  • Higher demand and limited renewable generation could lead to higher prices.

July 2024

Weather and Load Forecast:

  • July is predicted to have more moderate temperatures, with cooler periods expected.
  • Load is expected to be variable, reflecting the changing weather patterns.
  • There is a risk of higher temperatures and load as some of our analog years show.

Renewable Energy and Transmission:

  • Wind generation will continue to be limited but increase this month, influencing market prices.
  • Transmission constraints to watch include the BPA grid and intertie points with California.

Price and Congestion:

  • Prices may fluctuate with the changing weather patterns.
  • Key congestion points will likely include the BPA grid and intertie points with California, as well as other critical transmission lines affecting major load centers.

August 2024

Weather and Load Forecast:

  • August is projected to be the hottest month, with temperatures potentially reaching high levels across the region.
  • Peak load is expected during heat waves, with significant electricity demand in urban areas.

Renewable Energy and Transmission:

  • Renewable generation may decline slightly due decreased wind.

Price and Congestion:

  • August is quite bullish, with higher prices likely if temperatures rise and renewable generation continues to be scarce.

CAISO’s and Mid-C’s summer outlooks indicate a dynamic season for weather patterns and renewable energy generation that will impact market conditions. Want to watch the full outlook for more details? Check out the replay of our webinar here: Summer 2024 Power Markets Outlook: CAISO, MID-C | Enverus

Find out how publication subscribers conquer power market volatility:
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Finding Top Tier Undrilled Acreage Amidst the Land Rush for Remaining Inventory

When we talk about remaining drilling inventory, what we’re really talking about is remaining hydrocarbon reserves that can be economically extracted. Whereas the gigantic Ghawar oilfield in Saudi Arabia is likely to keep producing for decades thanks to high porosity rock that hasn’t seen a second life yet from enhanced oil recovery, the sharp decline of shale wells and the inherent challenge of marrying EOR to the rock limit production lifespan. Once a drilling spacing unit has been drilled, don’t expect operators to return.

Needless to say, understanding what is left to be drilled, where it is and who is likely to drill it is top of mind for E&Ps and investors, but traditional calculations may overestimate as much as 50%. That’s because acreage math was developed decades ago for conventional vertical wells and fails to account for today’s complex cube style development, parent/child wells, shale geology and 2+ mile lateral length.

We’re in the midst of an unprecedented land rush for remaining drilling inventory. Nowhere is this more apparent than the steady flow of mergers and acquisitions. Hard to imagine now, but the PUD assets of M&A transactions had little or no value during the low points of 2020 yet have rebounded 183% since on a dollar per flowing barrel basis. Recent mega-mergers also indicate that this land rush is strategic to the buyer’s development strategy where only accretive PUD assets are acquired. And it appears that it’s the publicly traded E&Ps who close mergers with stock transactions that are the driving force as only 15% of large private E&Ps were in 2023’s M&A deal flow even though they produce 38% of the country’s energy and have great acreage worth acquiring.

Whether you’re on an acquisition team for an E&P or an investor analyst, understanding what remaining inventory is worth acquiring is more important than ever. Not all PUD assets are created equal, which is why we need better acreage math that can scale across multiple basins and diverse acreage positions, incorporates robust production models and degradation analysis, and overcomes the timing issues that make it difficult to acquire assets.

Teams need confident answers to tough questions about efficiently deploying capital into remaining inventory:

  • How much will the wells of the future cost in order to optimize go-forward capital efficiency?
  • What existing assets can be high graded and where can assets be acquired that best complement a portfolio?
  • What is the best approach to integrate assets post-M&A, apply and optimize new development strategies?
  • Are there any physical or labor constraints that prevent site construction or any midstream takeaway issues?
  • Are there any lease/obligation issues from continuous drilling clauses that divert development from tier 1 to tier 2?
  • Does the asset have any emissions or plug and abandonment liabilities that will impede development plans?

With the introduction of Placed Well Analytics, Enverus delivered high confidence insights to assess the impact of remaining PUD inventory on future energy industry investment, operations and commodity supply. While this Enverus PRISM® dataset plays an important role in quickly screening for potential drilling sites that have not yet been permitted based on engineering and geological models, we recognized that there was also a need for flexibility to adjust the underlying placed well assumptions and incorporate evolving trends into a go forward development plan. And thus, Placed Well Studio was born.

The game changer with Placed Well Studio is rapid customization. From PRISM, users can adjust the assumptions that generate placed well location and well design, including intervals, lateral length, spacing and co-completion to find assets that are most accretive to operator development. Importantly, the results are not generated at the individual well level and instead consider the overall resource capture strategy at the section or unit level.

Placed Well Studio confidently answers the tough questions about where top tier drilling inventory is located. It considers factors such as breakeven prices and DSU design tailored to the actual site’s physical constraints (e.g., slope and inaccessible locations). Compare and contrast any PRISM dataset to filter on the best opportunities or bring your own data into PRISM (e.g., geological interpretations).

Because of the rapid-fire customization and placed well calculations, the door is now open for PRISM users to try different “what if” scenarios around remaining inventory and capital allocation. Amidst today’s land rush for PUD assets, the ability of Placed Well Studio to accurately put a value on the upside potential of undrilled acreage based on conservative, moderate or aggressive assumptions gives E&Ps and investors the data-driven insights needed to inform and anticipate go forward development strategies. Without such a nuanced approach to deepen our understanding of remaining PUD inventory, teams are left with outdated acreage math and a shot in the dark.

Enverus press release - Renewing Alberta’s path for renewables

Harnessing Wind and Solar Generation Trends for Financial Transmission Rights Trading

The power trading landscape is rapidly evolving with the significant growth of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. For traders in the Financial Transmission Rights (FTR) markets, understanding these trends is crucial for effective strategizing. In this blog, we discuss the detailed dynamics of wind and solar generation, focusing on key insights and data projections from the MISO, ERCOT and SPP regions, derived from our Mid-Term Nodal Renewable Forecast tool.

Wind Generation Trends

Exponential Growth in Wind Capacity

(Source: Mid-Term Nodal Renewable Forecast in Panorama)

Since 2017, wind capacity in key independent system operators (ISOs) has witnessed exponential growth. For instance, ERCOT’s installed wind capacity has surged from 13.2 GW in January 2017 to an anticipated 38.3 GW by April 2024. Similarly, SPP has increased from 14.7 GW to 38.8 GW, and MISO from 13 GW to 34.1 GW within the same period. This substantial increase underscores the growing contribution from wind energy, highlighting its expanding role in the power generation mix and its implications for market dynamics and volatility.

Detailed Hourly Wind Generation Projections

The Mid-Term Nodal Renewable Forecast tool provides granular projections of mean hourly wind generation during on-peak hours, derived from our Enverus Research team’s data. This includes projections of the 5th and 95th percentiles of wind production, offering traders critical insights for anticipating various production scenarios. For example, the 95th percentile projections during on-peak hours provide a robust metric for high production scenarios, essential for effective risk management and strategic planning in the FTR markets.

Solar Generation Trends

Remarkable Surge in Solar Capacity

Solar energy is following a similar growth trajectory. In MISO, installed solar capacity has increased from 1.3 GW in January 2018 to 10.8 GW by April 2024, and is further projected to increased to 15.9 GW by July 2025. ERCOT and SPP also show significant upward trends, with ERCOT expected to grow from 1.4 GW to 30.7 GW, and SPP from 382 MW to 1.2 GW within the same timeframe. This rapid increase in solar capacity underscores the expanding influence of solar power on the grid and its impact on grid volatility.

Regional Solar Generation Insights

(Source: Mid-Term Nodal Renewable Forecast in Panorama)

Our regional analysis reveals stark contrasts in solar generation between 2020 and 2025. For example, in June 2020, regions like South and Central MISO produced less than 1500 MW during on-peak hours, as indicated by blue on the maps. By 2025, these regions are projected to generate significantly more, with Central and North MISO turning red on the maps, indicating higher solar generation. This shift highlights the substantial increase in installed capacity and its impact on the grid’s behavior and stability.

Weather and Renewable Fleet Dynamics

Importance of Weather Dependence

Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are highly weather-dependent, introducing intermittency and unpredictability. FTR traders must understand weather patterns to manage these challenges effectively. The Mid-Term NRF tool models both historical and current fleets to separate the effects of weather from fleet growth. For instance, despite increased capacity, low wind months like June 2023 can result in reduced generation, emphasizing the importance of weather-informed trading strategies.

Navigating an Evolving Grid

(Source: Mid-Term Nodal Renewable Forecast in Panorama)

An evolving grid with increasing wind and solar farms introduces new complexities for traders. Understanding the growth of installed capacities and their regional variations helps traders anticipate market behaviors and volatility. For example, analyzing wind production trends from 2017 to the 2025 forecast for the MISO MEC Balancing Authority, we see that installed capacity has grown from 2.9 GW in January 2017 to 8.5 GW by April 2024. Modeling wind production using today’s fleet enables traders to understand the annual variability due to weather, aiding in better decision-making.

Harnessing Insights for Future Trading

The rapid growth of wind and solar capacities across major ISOs is reshaping the power trading landscape, creating new volatility patterns and opportunities. For mid-term power traders and FTR traders, leveraging tools like the Mid-Term Nodal Renewable Forecast is crucial for mitigating risks and capitalizing on these changes. By understanding and anticipating renewable generation trends, traders can navigate the evolving grid with enhanced confidence and strategic foresight, ensuring they stay ahead in the dynamic energy market.

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