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3 price management capabilities to offset cost inflation

1981. That was the last time cost inflation was this high. Cost inflation combined with a weak economy led to what some could argue was the worst recession since the Great Depression.

1981 was also the peak of the oil boom when oil prices were $31.77 per barrel. A period of prosperity for oil and gas when companies were “growing through the drill bit.” A time when cost inflation was an afterthought to the pursuit of acquiring acreage. Capital efficiency wasn’t as much of an imperative.

Then everything fell apart. Propelled at first by high-cost inflation, oil prices fell with demand sinking below daily production leading to the “1980s oil bust” — the downturn to benchmark all others.

Fast forward to today which sees cost inflation spiraling once more, this time propelled by supply chain disruption. The rising freight costs, pandemic, ongoing lockdowns in China and Russian sanctions means scarcity is routine and commodity prices are volatile. And the oil and gas industry is not spared.

This time around, there’s more fiscal prudence.

But how exactly has cost inflation impacted operators?

“Operators are not strangers to volatility and adversity, maintaining strong performance despite rising prices. Cost inflation and rising rates are two factors affecting investing decisions, but inflation doesn’t have as big an impact on FCF/EV yields, which remain above 10% despite 40% cost inflation,” said Andrew Gillick, managing director at Enverus Intelligence®| Research, in the Nov. 15, 2022, Morning Energy article.

As for 2023, in our “Finding the Valuation Floor: Cost-Inflation and Discount-Rate Scenarios” report published last November, Jonathan Goodwin, senior associate with Enverus Intelligence®| Research, shared, “We would agree with a 15-20% uplift in NAM D&C spending. Enverus’ current outlook only calls for a ~5% increase in total L48 completion activity in 2023 as compared to a ~20% increase in 2022; we expect well cost inflation to run ~12% E/E in 2023.”

And how are operators insulating their performance against rising inflation this time around? The short answer is technology.

While we used to drive paper invoices, source-to-pay suites now make digital invoicing as simple as a click.
Today we can track complex pricing that previously lived in forgotten draws in the most remote of locations.

Gregory Hill, COO of Hess, shared last October how they managed to cut the impact of inflation in half through lean manufacturing, strategic contracting and technology.

So here are three price management capabilities to look for in your next technology investment that will help you offset cost inflation.

Automate internal price management controls

No one person or department should have absolute control over decisions.

While the Sarbanes Oxley Act requires publicly listed businesses to establish internal controls, there are no similar requirements for private businesses.

Checks and balances are usually synonymous with good governance. With controls in place, you reduce errors, prevent improper use and ensure each person or team has clearly defined duties.

Permission workflows within your pricing or invoicing software help you achieve good governance. As you assign responsibilities to individuals or teams, you’ll help ensure accountability and add an extra layer of security.

Next time you shop for a solution make sure you can restrict permissions to selected roles or groups, or to admins only. But also make sure you can control access to workflow steps and limit visibility to relevant spend categories, so your team focuses on what’s most relevant and impactful.

Internal controls also promote operational efficiency. By setting price validation workflows on one platform, approval and processing are that much faster and three- and four-way matching is a breeze. You limit manual touchpoints in the process and shorten your invoice cycle from weeks to days.

Look for Conditional Auto-Approval and Auto-Reject features to allow you to automatically approve, validate or reject any invoice or pricing below or above a certain threshold.

Finally, internal controls help mitigate fluctuations in commodity prices so you can leverage hedging to protect yourself and maximize your bottom line.

When looking at price management software options, make sure you ask about a Lock-in Price for Inputs feature so you can limit how much suppliers can charge for certain materials and services.

Implement price compliance workflows

Ensuring prices are consistent and in compliance with contractual agreements and obligations is another way to offset cost inflation. Though, standardizing your pricing process is easier said than done, especially in oil and gas. Sophisticated processes, complex regulations and decentralized operations are some of the variables that make standardization cumbersome.

One way to overcome these variables is by having all your pricing and contractual obligations in one place to ensure pricing is applied with consistency and accuracy. Another way is to ensure you can monitor pricing activities within the same system you document pricing decisions, so you can spot pricing errors or violations early. This will also help you demonstrate ESG compliance, specifically the “G” for “governance.”

Price compliance workflows will help you run accurate compliance reports so you can find ways to detect patterns, discrepancies or suspicious activities.

And while you mitigate supply chain disruption through better visibility into compliance with general ledger reporting, in-line spend analytics will allow you and your team to examine line items referencing price books and agreements. With a more complete and detailed view of your procurement spend, you discover more cost-saving opportunities and increase your bottom line.

Adopt strategic contracting like Hess

In a recent McKinsey study, 60% of surveyed B2B companies cited active pricing management techniques as a means to increase profitability.

One pricing management technique is strategic contracting — the process of planning, negotiating and managing contracts with suppliers to achieve a long-term mutually beneficial relationship.

You’ll recall the COO of Hess mentioning strategic contracting as one of the reasons its team was so successful in minimizing the impact of cost inflation.

But are we surprised? Strategic contracting allows you to focus not only on the immediate transactions or cost savings, but also on the overall value and impact of contracted agreements on your organization’s goals and objectives.

For you to achieve strategic contracting, you need to adopt a structured approach that includes:

Pricing and contractual obligation negotiation, so operators and service providers closely collaborate in one place for shorter turnaround time.
Price management, so agreements are implemented and managed effectively, but also to monitor supplier performance.
Escalation processes to address issues that arise and resolve disputes, ensure obligations are met and notify the responsible party and escalate to a higher authority if necessary.

If you want to make strategic contracting a reality, you will need features like Price Change Rules, Notification Alerts, Enhanced Supplier Collaboration, Agreement Generator and Line-Item Editor alongside the features mentioned above.

Price management software made for oil and gas

Despite all the innovation, operators still struggle to find the right price management solution. It’s certainly an option to manage pricing in your CRM or ERP, but often your team ends up spending countless hours manually importing or applying pricing. Simply put, today’s pricing management solutions are not designed to handle the scope and complexity of oil and gas pricing.

Enverus OpenContract PriceBook is. Our price management solution lets you track and compile all your pricing, agreements, and terms and conditions in one platform integrated to your invoicing, ticketing and ordering. This software, made for North American oil and gas, allows you to automate internal price management controls, implement price compliance workflows and adopt strategic contracting to mitigate cost inflation.

Interested in learning more about how your business could benefit from OpenContract PriceBook? Check out this on-demand webinar today to see it in action!

About Enverus Intelligence®| Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters. Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser.

Lessons in risk management: What we can learn from one trader’s $300M loss

Even multi-national conglomerates can suffer devastating trade losses. In 2019, a subsidiary to a global manufacturing firm was forced to shutter after a single oil derivatives trader racked up more than $300 million in losses when his positions settled prematurely.

“Sound and thoroughly enforced” risk management systems are paramount

What went wrong on that trade floor? According to the company, the trader manipulated data within the risk management system, creating an internal mirage that made the transactions appear to be related to bona fide trades with customers.

The company maintains that adequate risk management controls were in place, but it is also actively engaging in a tightening of its risk management systems to prevent any future recurrence.

Trade validations, audit trails, and forward curve management

Without secure and armored systems in place, you lack the ability to make regular validations and proactive risk management that keep the entire ship afloat.

This dramatic blow to a large company’s global bottom line puts a spotlight on energy trading and risk management. It further highlights the importance of price validations, audit trails, and management of forward curves and their impact on the business.

Energy traders are more sophisticated than ever. Yet our team often encounters companies that lack the necessary internal processes to manage the nightmares that can result from human error in trading. Without secure and armored systems in place, you lack the ability to make regular validations and proactive risk management that keep the entire ship afloat.

From Excel users who have one individual running the entire forward curves management process, to groups that use manual curve generations pulling from multiple internal systems, there are several ways that our standard out-of-the-box solutions can enhance homegrown systems.

A lack of automation and validation triggered intervention means it may be too late to hedge a risk, even if the curve is off by a small amount.

Manual intervention versus automated processes

Any manual data entry processes are prone to human error. Even a minor misreporting of pricing data could result in millions of dollars in unforeseen exposure. A lack of automation and validation triggered intervention means it may be too late to hedge a risk, even if the curve is off by a small amount.

With automated systems in place, trade shops are not only mitigating risk but also building business continuity.

In an ideal world, a curve management system is in place, performing automated calculations and validations and notifying users when to act. These systems help risk and pricing managers proactively manage price risk versus reactively responding when an unforeseen exposure is found.

This is particularly true in nested scenarios, where one forward curve builds into the next layer. In these scenarios, firms need to view the individual inputs throughout a calculation and easily audit these results. Whether a methodology changes or a settlement price is corrected, risk managers should have the ability to apply quality controls to their data. It is vital to have the capability to look for validation scenarios. If prices exceed a certain threshold, users should be notified, and the problem can be addressed immediately.

Automated forward curve management helps risk managers grow the bottom line

With automated systems in place, trade shops are not only mitigating risk, but also building business continuity. When companies use a system to automate their curve management and embed validations into their business process, these professionals can turn their focus toward solving business problems, allowing their analytical expertise to contribute to the bottom line.

Many risk managers have teams performing drawn-out and repetitive daily tasks, rather than utilizing their strong skillset to grow the entire trade organization. An automated system helps trade floors reroute their talent and leverage their advanced commodity market backgrounds. Suddenly these teams are using their skillsets to find and act on validations and market swings. Wouldn’t you rather look for trade opportunities instead of managing manual processes in Excel?

At Enverus Trading & Risk, we have standard processes running more than 10 million forward curves. Our standard out-of-the-box solution can be tailored to your needs with fresh custom processes to enhance audits and compliance practices through forward curve management. We recognize that every trade shop has different demands, which is why we work with customers to address their individual needs. Don’t be shy about learning more and sign up for a tour of our forward curves services today.

Winds of change in Texas power: Unraveling the implications of Senate Bill 6 for ERCOT’s energy future

The Texas Senate Business and Commerce Committee will be meeting Thursday, March 23, to discuss several energy bills related to the Texas power market. Senate Bill 6, which introduces the Texas Energy Insurance Program (TEIP), is one of the items to be discussed. This bill has the potential to fundamentally alter the structure of the Texas power market, and we believe it is essential for you to be informed of the details and potential consequences.

Key facets of Texas Energy Insurance Program

Texas Energy Insurance Program (TEIP), as outlined in Senate Bill 6, contains several noteworthy provisions likely to impact the power market. Some of the key facets include:

Requiring the installation of 10,000 megawatts of new thermal generation, to idle as a reliability backstop. While coal and natural gas units could equally apply, it would be likely that all of these would be natural gas units. This would lead to the siting of at least 10 or more new units with the most favorable new natural gas units being smaller quick-start units that have typically smaller output capacity.
An RFP process managed by the PUCT, is worded with specific requirements in which only the larger incumbent generation owners to likely to be eligible.
Ratepayers cover the full cost of build and guaranteeing a rate of return to owners, even if market forces make the generators obsolete.
Costs related to TEIP’s transmission and distribution utility services allocated to all retail customers in the ERCOT power region.
The establishment of the Texas Energy Insurance Fund, a special fund administered by the Public Utility Commission of Texas. The bill allows the commission to use money from the fund to provide payments to the independent organization certified for the ERCOT power region on behalf of customers to offset amounts owed to certified entities.

Potential impact of TEIP on power markets

The TEIP would cost more than $10 billion initially, which excludes the potential repercussions on the Texas power market. If enacted, TEIP would lead to the retirement of older units currently idling but available, for newer customer-funded assets that guarantee this rate-of-return. This scenario would likely benefit incumbent generators disproportionately and signal a re-regulation of the Texas market.

Other market changes under discussion

Senate Bill 6 is not the only proposal on the table. Senate Bill 2015 aims to mandate that 50% of all Texas electric generation must come from “dispatchable” generators, which could further influence the market landscape.

The Texas energy market’s future

While these bills seem to go against the competitive spirit of the Texas energy market, they reflect a growing desire among legislative members, the PUCT and recent ERCOT board appointees, to revert to a more concentrated market. Although the chances of these proposals becoming law are uncertain, we believe it is crucial for ERCOT market participants to be aware of these developments and their potential implications on the market structure.

Read our recent article by Rob Allerman, Sr. director of power analytics at Enverus, on the unprecedented growth in the ISO.

Banking on Buzios’ oil supply

CALGARY, Alberta (March 22, 2023) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released a report on Brazilian oil supply growth through 2030. With the nation expected to be a major source of global oil supply, EIR analyzes the key risks of banking on its offshore development projects.

Drilling in Brazil has greatly declined since 2015 as oil price volatility, notably sub-$30/bbl Brent oil prices in early 2016, was compounded by heavy debt levels that Petrobras, the state-owned Brazilian multinational corporation controlling 65% of operating fields, accumulated in the wake of the Operation Car Wash scandal. Since 2008-09, activity has dropped from 700 appraisal, exploration and development wells drilled annually, to less than 200 so far this decade.

“We forecast Brazil will be a major driver of oil supply growth to the end of the decade on the back of its offshore pre-salt development,” said Josephine Mills, associate at EIR. “If government policy and regulation changes in Brazil affect the pace of offshore development, global inventories will remain under-supplied, pushing up oil prices as few countries have the potential to boost production significantly.”

Key takeaways from the report:

Enverus Intelligence Research forecasts that new oil supply from Brazil’s offshore fields will come on slower than predicted by the EIA.
Brazil is a hot spot for oil supply growth, currently accounting for ~13% of production in EIR’s NOCAR (non-OPEC, Canada, U.S. and Russia) supply stack, and we expect that share to increase to 20% by 2030.

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus’ expert analysts.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters. Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser.

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

Breaking down the CCUS basins

CALGARY, Alberta (March 15, 2023) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released another report utilizing the company’s ESG and Geoscience Analytics platforms to examine the potential for CO2 storage in Appalachia and assesses source-to-sink project economics given the current 45Q tax incentive structure.

The energy evolution currently underway, along with additional incentives inside new laws like the Inflation Reduction Act, has brought renewed attention to carbon capture technology, the economics behind it and the optimal locations for storage. However, not all sub-surface basins are created equal warns EIR, as increased attention has focused on carbon storage viability in Appalachia. EIR’s latest report seeks to answer those questions.

“Our current view is that CO2 storage potential in Appalachia is very limited as the underlying reservoirs are thin with low porosity and permeability,” said Brad Johnston, a senior geology associate with EIR and report author. “The Appalachia region accounts for about 8% of U.S. CO2emissions but lacks any significant storage projects.”

This raises the question: “Where are they going to put all of the CO2 up there to keep up with emission reduction targets and their potential blue hydrogen hub?” Johnston said.

Key takeaways:

EIR believes CCS is currently uneconomical in the Oriskany Sandstone in Appalachia. Low porosity and thickness contribute to storage breakevens nearly 170 times higher than the Louisiana Oligocene-Miocene sands at the midpoint.
Capture economics are very challenged in the area even if we assume proximate access to the highest quality disposal reservoirs. A higher price of carbon or technology-driven cost reductions are required to warrant CCS activity in the Oriskany.
EIR struggles to justify the economics of retrofitting power plants for CCS or for the proposed Decarbonization Network of Appalachia (DNA) hydrogen hub in the region. With low modelled injection volumes, hub-scale or large single-emitter sequestration projects will be difficult.

CO2 Emissions and Storage Project Capacity by Region

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus’ expert analysts.

Additional Resources:

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

EIR Macro Forecaster report identifies oil and gas’ breaking points

CALGARY, Alberta (March 8, 2023) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released its latest Macro Forecaster, a report developed for the financial services industry, and is focused on the outlook for near-term oil and gas prices. In EIR’s report, relevant fundamental drivers of oil and gas are discussed, of which include resurgent Chinese oil demand, Permian supply concerns, inflationary impacts on oil field services and general global economic uncertainty.

“We expect additional crude and product inventory draws in the second half of 2023, as accelerating demand exceeds supply growth. Crude and product inventories that currently remain stubbornly below the five-year average will be further stressed and triple digit oil prices seem inevitable,” said Al Salazar, senior vice president at EIR.

“Natural gas production has been resilient in 2023 in comparison to 2022, and we expect 2.9 Bcf/d of growth over the summer. Some of the growth will be offset by incremental LNG demand from Freeport LNG terminal’s restart and increased price-induced power burn growth, but natural gas prices will be under intense pressure,” Salazar said.

Key takeaways the report:

EIR forecasts Brent to reach triple-digit oil prices in 2H23 as demand is expected to grow 1.5 MMbbl/d Y/Y and Russian shipments of crude are falling month over month.
EIR forecasts NYMEX to remain depressed this summer with risks to the downside if activity in the Haynesville maintains current pace.

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus’ expert analysts.

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

Electric vehicles expected to displace
2.7 MMbbl of oil per day by 2030

CALGARY, Alberta (March 7, 2023) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading global energy data analytics and SaaS technology company, has released an updated electric vehicle (EV) outlook outlining the energy impacts from EV adoption, including light-duty vehicle fuel demand and regional gasoline displacement.

“EV market share growth in Europe and China is significantly outperforming expectations,” said Carson Kearl, an associate at EIR. “U.S. adoption will be strongly supported as over 20 states have committed to California’s adoption targets.”

Key takeaways from the report:

EIR sees the global share of EVs as a proportion of total new car and light truck sales hitting 65% by 2030 and 85% by 2035. Combining EV sales already representing over 10% of new vehicle purchases worldwide with improving fuel efficiency standards, peak gasoline demand is on the horizon, according to EIR projections.
This adoption forecast implies the displacement of 2.7 MMbbl/d of liquid fuels in 2030 and 5.2 MMbbl/d in 2035, presenting a major driver of EIR’s peak oil demand thesis, which sees global oil demand cresting sometime in the latter half of this decade. EIR sees EVs displacing 0.75 and 1.5 MMbbl/d of liquid fuels in the U.S. and China by 2030, respectively.
Affordability in terms of cost breakevens for EVs has improved markedly since EIR’s last forecast; EV models are available in every class of car and light truck that break even within three years of purchase.

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus’ expert analysts.

About Enverus
Enverus is the leading energy SaaS company delivering highly-technical insights and predictive/prescriptive analytics that empower customers to make decisions that increase profit. Enverus’ innovative technologies drive production and investment strategies, enable best practices for energy and commodity trading and risk management, and reduce costs through automated processes across critical business functions. Enverus is a strategic partner to more than 6,000 customers in 50 countries. Learn more at Enverus.com.

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

Analyst takes: February energy trends

As we kick off March, let’s take a moment to reflect on the energy landscape of the past month. Our Enverus Intelligence® | Research (EIR) team has analyzed key trends and developments, supplying insightful analyst takes that can help you make informed business decisions. By staying informed, you’ll be well positioned to capitalize on upcoming energy opportunities in 2023. Read on to discover the latest insights and keep your finger on the pulse of the energy market.

OPEC+ keeps oil production targets unchanged amid uncertainty over Chinese demand and Russian exports (Feb. 2, 2023)

OPEC+ kept its oil production targets unchanged at a virtual meeting of its market monitoring committee Feb. 1. Delegates cited uncertainty about the strength of a rebound in Chinese oil demand as the country relaxes its COVID-19 restrictions, and a lack of clarity on the extent to which Russian crude oil exports have been reduced by the EU sanctions imposed in early December. The organization cut output in November and intends to maintain those new targets through the end of 2023. But it has also warned it will not hesitate to cut further if recession risks play out and oil demand weakens. Early evidence suggests Russian oil exports have remained robust in January. An EU ban on Russian oil product imports comes into effect Feb. 5, which is expected to keep European diesel balances tight.

NYMEX gas prices hit new low of $2.56/MMBtu amid mild winter weather and high storage projections (Feb. 2, 2023)

NYMEX gas prices have continued softening in 2023 to $2.56/MMBtu, as of Feb. 2. Warm winter weather has supported small storage withdrawals and even a rare winter injection for the week ending Jan. 6. EIR forecasts end-of-winter storage to be 1.8 Tcf due to the mild conditions compounded with strong supply and further delays to the Freeport LNG restart. Our high storage projection has pushed our summer gas price forecast down to $2.50/MMBtu, close to levels which could prompt a reduction in rig activity in the Haynesville.

ExxonMobil’s offtake agreements push Saguaro Energia’s LNG project toward FID, eyes on second phase deals (Feb. 8, 2023)

Quantum Energy Partners-backed Saguaro Energia’s LNG project inched closer toward final investment decision yesterday (Feb. 7) after it was announced ExxonMobil has signed two long-term offtake agreements. These deals have helped put the 1.2 Bcf/d first phase of the project past its commercialization threshold and the project is now focused on additional deals to support the second phase of the project. Saguaro plans to use ONEOK’s proposed 2.8 Bcf/d Saguaro Connector pipeline to source Permian gas for the project which will help alleviate the gas takeaway issues we have highlighted for the basin post-2026.

New York’s 70×30 mandate fails to account for economic impact of clean power transition, cost could increase by 5.3% (Feb. 8, 2023)

We believe New York’s 70×30 mandate fails to consider the economic impacts of a transition to a clean power system. We found the most economic way to cover New York’s 2030 load is by supplying 37% of the power with gas-fired generation, 29% with onshore wind and 1% with solar. The remaining is supplied by imports, nuclear and hydro. To reach the 70% clean power goal by 2030 in an economic manner, the cost would increase from $20.9/MWh to $22/MWh or 5.3%. If the mandated generation mix is implemented to reach the 70% goal, the cost would deviate from the optimal by 50.7% to $31.5/MWh. For a 100% emission-free grid in New York, we estimate the cost of flexibility to reach ~$10 billion annually. We expect NYISO’s market design to be adjusted so flexibility is accounted for and compensated either in the capacity or the energy market.

Russian crude oil loading programs plummet in February, exports to decline by 1-1.5 MMbbl/d by end of Q1 amid sanctions impact and shadow fleet operations (Feb. 9, 2023)

Russian crude oil loading programs have fallen sharply so far in February, according to Refinitiv shipping data. As of Feb. 9, loading departures equivalent to 2.3 MMbbl/d have been programmed, compared to 4.8 MMbbl/d in January, which was slightly higher than the pre-sanctions level of November 2022. Enverus expects Russian crude exports to decline from pre-sanctions levels by 1-1.5 MMbbl/d by the end of the first quarter, reducing production to 9 MMbbl/d as sanctions take effect. We assume it will not be possible for Moscow to divert all formerly European-bound oil to other markets, particularly China and India. The EU has not only sanctioned Russian crude but also imposed restrictions on insurance and other maritime services for ships carrying Russian oil. However, Russia has built up a shadow-fleet of more than 100 vessels that could operate outside of the sanctions and is selling its oil at a $35-40 discount to Brent, as well as paying higher freight rates. India has prioritized imports of Russian oil, taking 1.25 MMbbl/d of Russian crude in December, equivalent to 25% of total oil imports, compared to 1% in 2021.

Entropy’s Glacier CCS project outperforms incumbent technology with 40% lower costs, boosts partnership with Brookfield Renewables (Feb. 10, 2023)

Entropy’s recent CO2 capture results from its Glacier post-combustion CCS project demonstrate material improvements over the incumbent technology. The company’s projected $71 million capital cost and $20/tonne opex at its 200,000 tpa facility trend roughly 40% lower than our estimates using legacy MEA solvent and assuming flat $70/MWh and $4 Henry Hub. Furthermore, Entropy is already starting to benefit from its partnership with Brookfield Renewables through its 400,000 tpa agreement with CRC. The operator’s stock traded 2% over the XOP on the news.

VTLE’s purchase of Driftwood Energy’s Assets in Southern Midland Basin a step in right direction for inventory concerns (Feb. 15, 2023)

It may not solve all inventory concerns in one fell swoop, but VTLE’s recent purchase of Driftwood Energy’s assets in the Southern Midland Basin moves it incrementally in the right direction. After adjusting for production value at $36,000/boe/d (63% oil, ~50% next-12-month decline), we calculate VTLE paid about $1 million each for 21 net locations breaking even at $42/bbl, a reasonable price versus larger core Permian deals that have traded north of $2 million per location. The new inventory slots into the top quartile of VTLE’s opportunity set and improves its sub-$50/bbl inventory life by ~0.4 years to 3.8 years assuming no change in drilling cadence. However, more work remains to be done as we view inventory life (cash flow duration) as one of the chief drivers of oil equity valuations. VTLE’s light inventory life is a key reason they trade at ~2.0x 2023E EBITDA versus a peer group average of 3.1x for SMIDs and 5.1x for large-caps. Continued bolt-on deals of this type at modest prices appear the best current route forward for SMID-caps to address their inventory needs as the remaining core strategic opportunities are picked up by large operators that can afford higher pricing.

Oil and gas operators brace for decline in capital efficiency in 2023 due to OFS cost inflation (Feb. 16, 2023)

Capital efficiency is expected to decline in 2023 compared to 2022 for most operators, largely driven by OFS cost inflation. Consensus estimates imply oil capital efficiencies for shale-focused SMID- and large-cap operators will remain flat and degrade by 12%, while gas operators are expected to worsen by 3%. We suspect large-caps’ higher year-over-year degradation in capital efficiency is due to longer-dated OFS contracts partially delaying exposure to cost inflation felt by most SMID-caps in 2022. The inflationary impact can be mitigated by improving productivity (e.g., through geological high-grading) or development strategies (e.g., increasing DUC draws). As seen with DVN and MRO, we expect that rates of change in capital efficiency will drive market reactions this quarter as investors remain focused on cash return potential.

ARX achieves increased well performance through wider spacing at Kakwa asset (Feb. 16, 2023)

ARX reported earnings last week indicating that wider spacing at its Kakwa asset has resulted in increased well performance. Our data suggests ARX has achieved 7% wider inter-well spacing compared to 2021, with early 2022 well results implying oil EURs of 48 Mbbl/1,000’, 11% more than 2021 and 20% greater than 2020. We estimate that ARX’s recent wells in the Kakwa region have breakevens in the $1.90 range, ranking as a top-tier asset in the Montney play.

Brazil’s pre-salt offshore plans offer major growth for NOCAR supply, but policy and regulation risks could delay progress (Feb. 21, 2023)

Brazil’s pre-salt offshore development plans should add a risked 1.9 MMbbl/d of oil supply by the end of the decade according to Enverus forecasts, making the country the major focus of growth for our NOCAR (non-OPEC, Canada, U.S. and Russia) supply wedge in the medium term. Around half of that growth will come by mid-decade. But with pressure on to deliver, we think the risks of shifting government policy and energy sector regulation alongside uncertain management and strategy at Petrobras could push timelines back beyond operator guidance. Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has demanded adherence for local content requirements by increasing fines, which risks backing up already hard-pressed Brazilian ship-building yards. Brazil’s oil sector is running to stand still as new projects are critical to making up for declines at mature oil fields. However, there are some silver linings. If the government allows Petrobras to shed some of its producing assets, supply prospects could benefit from the entry of new operators.

Investors shift focus to capital efficiency and longevity amid twilight of North American shale (Feb. 27, 2023)

What is now abundantly clear from this earnings season is investors are focused on capital efficiency and the longevity of their companies. Yield is important but almost secondary as our discussions turn to the twilight of North American shale. If companies increase capex without commensurate production growth, then capital efficiency is degrading and investors are noticing. We are receiving lots of inventory and type curve questions again which means there is an increasing focus on the parent/child challenge. I expect some big inventory revisions this year and the A&D market will be hot with those looking to show inventory life beyond seven years.

Make better business decisions with EIR’s energy expertise

At EIR, we understand that staying ahead of the curve is key to making informed business decisions in the dynamic energy sector. To help you stay informed about the latest developments, we invite you to follow us on LinkedIn, where you’ll find valuable insights on the energy outlook for February and beyond. Trust EIR to provide the guidance you need to navigate the ever-evolving energy landscape.

Drawing from 9.47TW of data, RatedPower predicts 2023 solar and renewable trends

MADRID, Spain (March 2, 2023) — RatedPower, now a part of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released its annual findings derived from nearly 100 diverse industry experts from across the world, and more than 101,000 simulations. According to the results, the focus for 2023 will be on accelerating the adoption of renewable energy power generation, reducing the levelized cost of electricity, fuel diversification and energy storage investment.

After years of falling costs, the renewable industry faced new challenges in 2022 as supply chain disruptions related to the pandemic increased equipment prices and reduced availability. But new global capacity installations continued to rise as the pandemic, coupled with the energy crisis, spurred governments and businesses to increase their investments in clean energy and reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports.

“In the year ahead, we expect the green transition to provide a massive boost to investments in solar photovoltaics (PV) — for residential, commercial and industrial, and for utility-scale installations. The industry is increasingly looking at ways to incorporate battery storage and clean, green hydrogen into renewable installations to maximize supply,” said Andrea Barber, vice president of Power & Renewables at Enverus and co-founder of RatedPower, upon release of the report.

To gain further insight into the status of the industry and the key trends for this year and beyond, RatedPower turned to more than 100 experts from energy companies of all sizes from around the world and carried out a comprehensive survey that includes their views on the challenges and prospects ahead. Additionally, the report analyzes data from RatedPower’s solar plant simulation software to highlight key trends and top manufacturers around the world in 2022.

“The energy evolution is not clearly mapped out for us; it is a winding, twisting road full of potholes. All these twists, turns and bumps make the market one that is full of risk but, more importantly, of opportunity as well. At Enverus, we continue to work endlessly to eliminate the gaps and help you make intelligent connections between all parts of the project lifecycle from siting through operations, so you can minimize investment risks and maximize returns,” added Bernadette Johnson, general manager of Power & Renewables at Enverus.

Key themes revealed:

Industry experts are concerned about instability and grid saturation

Grid saturation and instability has joined permitting and regulation as the biggest challenge the renewable industry is facing in the coming year, with both issues cited by 68% of respondents. The increase in costs is widely mentioned among the respondents as a major challenge. More than 40% of survey respondents have also cited the increasing lack of skilled personnel, land availability and raw materials.

Energy storage keeps gaining attention

When asked about technologies with the highest potential, experts still mention energy storage as a trendy topic, but agree that the future might be in newer PV technologies that contribute to the deployment of renewable capacity at the scale needed for global decarbonization. Agriphotovoltaics, floating PV, vehicle-integrated PV, and building-integrated PV are promoted as routes to expanding solar capacity.

U.S. and China are perceived as top growth potential regions

For the first time, the U.S. has overtaken China as the country with the highest growth potential, with 60% of responses placing it at the top, followed by China with 46%. India and Australia also made the list with their ambitious renewable plans.

The key to success: Diversification

Diversification of renewable energy is one of the top three key success factors of a leading energy company, according to 68.5% of respondents. Almost all industry professionals believe that automation, digitalization of the processes, and energy storage need to be the focus of investors to help with the grid saturation and instability challenges.

RatedPower: A deep dive into the data

There has been an increase in the volume of generation capacity simulated in RatedPower’s software to 9.47 TW across 101,822 simulations throughout 2022.

The average rated power capacity worldwide in 2022 was around 96GW, with the first quarter rising above 100MW, up from 80.69MW in 2021.
The data shows an increase in the popularity of string inverters over central inverters for the past two years. The simulations based with these inverters are 53% and 47% respectively.
Although solar tracking systems accounted for more than half of the simulations, there seems to be a growing trend towards the use of fixed structures, which increased by 3%.
Top three countries by average rated power are Brazil (326.8MW), México (162.6MW), and Chile (161.95MW).
Bifacial modules simulations kept growing last year, reaching a total of 71.87% of simulations, up from 57% in 2021.

2022 was a record year of high energy costs across Europe, which has emphasized the advantages of low-carbon energy generation, increasing calls for an acceleration in wind and solar system installation. The survey reveals that renewable energy experts are confident that digitalization, storage and diversification will be key for the development of the renewable energy sector going forward.

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert (North America) or Angela Lopez (international) to request a copy of the full report or to schedule an interview with one of Enverus’ expert analysts.

About RatedPower
RatedPower, an Enverus company since September 2022, helps companies discover the smartest ways to design and engineer utility-scale solar PV plants and maximize their potential through pvDesign, their software to automate and optimize the study, analysis, design and engineering of photovoltaic plants and its electrical infrastructure in all its stages. Learn more at ratedpower.com.

Media Contacts:
Ángela López | RatedPower | +34 687 692 530
Jon Haubert | Enverus | 303.396.5996

4 steps to confidently forecast remaining drilling inventory

Concerns over remaining inventory

More than ever, inventory is strongly correlated with valuations, and investors are increasingly focused on the quantity and quality of E&P inventory, how much it costs operators to develop it and how the assets will perform.

The global demand for hydrocarbons, which are expected to increase 1 MMbbl/d from 2022, largely due to China’s relaxing COVID-19 restrictions and reopening of its economy, is driving the need for inventory. Meanwhile, natural gas has a bright long-term future, but prices are on a descending glide for the next couple of years. This price decline is driven mostly by the growth of gas supply from the Permian, while the Haynesville development and production are slowing but still increasing, setting up a perfect storm of oversupply and driving prices lower in the near term.

Producers have reached for new efficiencies and tools to do more with less, including co-completing an entire drilling spacing unit (DSU) pad. Traditional methods of drilling one well at a time presented a typical decline curve but resulted in poor performance to the wells completed after the initial parent well. While co-completed DSUs effectively drill out an area, and lead to better performance initially for the child wells, they can have steeper declines. This leaves producers looking for more inventory to backfill these declining wells to meet the global demand and take advantage of higher price environments.

A scramble for good rock

E&Ps will need to look beyond core plays to find affordable drilling inventory, especially the small to mid-sized independents. To address their inventory needs without diluting free cash flow yields, these inventory-hungry operators are being drawn to acreage in less well-known and potentially cheaper basins like the Permian Central Basin Platform and Eastern Shelf, Powder River Basin, Uinta Basin and the Eastern extension of the Eagle Ford.

What is becoming a hyperfocus from the market will also drive many operators to abandon ship, divest assets in favor of greener fields and leave their acreage to an operator who is a better fit. And for those fortunate operators with an ample supply of remaining well locations, the focus is asset optimization and tuning development models.

The billion-dollar question for the industry is: Should I buy, sell or optimize my remaining inventory?Traditional inventory valuations and potential forecasts can be time consuming and labor intensive across siloed geoscience and engineering teams. Buyers need to gain confidence and make quick decisions in acquisitions, sellers need assurance that they are not leaving money on the table, and development teams need clarity into remaining recoverable reserves.

To achieve this, we suggest four key steps:

Identifying remaining well locations

To screen acquisition opportunities or to assess the remaining potential of an asset, you first need to identify what remains, based on what has already been drilled, what spacing dimensions are optimal in that rock, and what will actually yield an economic well. Enverus Placed Well Analytics provides well “sticks” on a map of remaining inventory locations in the major plays across the U.S. The inventory locations account for DSU shapes for individual operators, along with constraints from leases, geological prospectivity and economic viability. Each stick on the Enverus PRISM® map encapsulates Enverus’ expert analysis backed by our completions sensitizer that analyzes optimal well spacing for single well economics. Identifying and prioritizing remaining inventory in and around your assets now takes hours instead of days, making sure you don’t miss an opportunity.

identify-remaining-well-locations-using-enverus-placed-well-analytics

De-risking subsurface assets

Although there may be space for a well to be placed for development, it is important to consider the geological properties of the rock that well will be going into, to accurately predict its future production and success. This is where the geoscience team comes in with their curated subsurface models, which are leveraging as much public and private data as possible to de-risk the potential well locations and optimize the well paths for the engineers. However, bringing in data from multiple sources can take a lot of time to incorporate and standardize.

This is why it’s helpful to use a GG&E platform, such as Enverus Subsurface Studio, that can be easily updated with an extensive library of cleaned and aliased LAS data, and stops interpretations and petrophysical data to your models. This allows you to de-risk your models faster with the most complete data set, while still performing the deep workflows and analysis needed to confidently provide recommendations.

de-risk-subsurface-assets-utilizing-subsurface-analysis

Forecasting production

Now that the well locations have been identified and the subsurface is better understood, your team can forecast production on those remaining wells. Having accurate pre-generated forecasts, economics and insights helps you understand the drivers of your competitors’ performance and costs. You can then evaluate deals and existing assets faster.

Adding firepower to this forecast workflow is Enverus Forecast Suite, which brings advanced capabilities to bear like modeling of thousands of wells in seconds, machine-learning auto-forecasts, and the ability to build different “what if” scenarios. Enverus’ clean, analytics-ready data and pre-built typecurves provide a starting point for rapid analysis. Additionally, for deeper technical due diligence, leverage your own production data and customize your decline curve analysis with your engineering parameters.

Tuning the development model

Bring your analysis together inside a development model where assumptions about influences on remaining drilling inventory can be put to the test (i.e., DSU co-completions, proppant, perforation intensity and drilling cadence) with P10, P50 and P90 forecasts automatically calculated. This allows you to model different cost/benefit multiple scenarios for optimal profitability and reduce risk when it comes time to put the bit to the rock.

enverus-prism-to-monitor-drilling-inventory-and-completions

How can Enverus help?

PRISM powers this extremely robust workflow with ease, delivering defensible analysis you can literally take to the bank to support your A&D or asset optimization thesis.

Under current market conditions and constraints, only the most rigorous assessments of remaining inventory will enable your team to make bold strides across U.S. basins.

To learn more about Enverus solutions to help you get ahead in identifying inventory, please fill in the form below and our experts will reach out to you.

Oil and gas procurement automation: End project delays and overspending

Advances in oil and gas order management software continue to create new and valuable opportunities for operators to reduce project delays and overspending along the procure-to-pay process, from touchless invoicing to digital field ticketing to procurement workflow automations and beyond. And while digitalizing and automating each of these parts of the procure-to-pay process has proven to add value to oil and gas companies of all sizes, today we’re going to focus on how digitalizing and automating oil and gas procurement workflows can help your team overcome common challenges.

Current challenges in oil and gas procurement

Automating oil and gas order management workflows has the power to relieve oil and gas companies of many headaches along the procure-to-pay process. Energy companies continue to manage the procurement process using tedious, manual workflows that result in the same issues over and over — limited visibility to accounting teams on committed spend, duplicate invoices and payments, delayed payment to suppliers, manual verification and matching of documents, to name a few.

For operations, this could mean missing your bonus because the lack of spend reporting caused the project to go way over the budget. For supply chain teams, this could mean purchasing happens outside of pricing agreements. Accounting teams face dreaded, time-consuming manual processes like the three-way match and invoice approvals.

Tracking goods and services using paper documents is challenging and often creates poor spend visibility.

While these pain points are enough to drive these teams crazy, there’s an unsatisfied resignation that this is how things are for two reasons.

1) Different companies have their own ways of managing and documenting this process, so there isn’t one solution flexible enough to meet everyone’s unique needs.

2) The existing procurement solutions used by our industry today are either:

Not solutions, but a combination of email and spreadsheets used to manage oil and gas purchasing.
Not designed for the energy industry’s unique procurement needs.

Introducing streamlined, efficient ordering with OpenOrder

The new OpenOrder order management software solution by Enverus allows oil and gas buyers to create, dispatch, track and manage digital purchase orders and work orders throughout the entire procure-to-pay process. This solution integrates seamlessly with OpenInvoice, OpenContract PriceBook and OpenTicket, allowing you to manage the order-receive-invoice process in one platform while ensuring consistent coding (cost objects and GL codes). This means you can reference the orders to both field tickets and invoices, saving significant time with automated compliance checks and three- and four-way matches. Also, automating your three- and four-way matching allows you to make automatic invoice payments without manual intervention.

OpenOrder is also less expensive than using multiple systems. By managing ordering on the OpenInvoice network, which connects more than 380 E&P and midstream companies and 35,000+ active suppliers, it’s much easier and faster to collaborate with your connected suppliers. Buyers and suppliers transacting in the same environment results in better communication, more transparency and fewer processing delays.

Watch this brief demo video to see the OpenOrder experience.

How OpenOrder creates time savings for every group involved in the procure-to-pay process

Improve procurement control: Procurement and supply chain teams can monitor and regulate job callouts and purchases with robust ordering and approval entitlements and automatic compliance.
Optimize spend: Digital order management enables oil and gas operations teams to track incurred and accrued costs and leverage advanced spend data analytics to identify future cost saving opportunities.
Centralize and streamline dispatch: Operations teams can easily keep projects moving on time by managing the match and dispatch process in a single platform.
Automate billing: Automate your billing workflow and compliance checks from ordering to invoicing for easy three- and four-way matching between contracts, orders, receipts and invoices, saving accounting teams significant time processing invoices for payment. By eliminating payment delays, companies can pay suppliers on time, creating better supplier relationships.

OpenOrder process flows for oil and gas order management

Success in the field: How Grayson Mill Energy leverages Enverus procurement automation software to optimize operations

Grayson Mill Energy, currently using OpenOrder, OpenInvoice, OpenTicket and OpenContract PriceBook, uses POs for inventory items and engineering services. Their main driver with OpenOrder was capturing procure-to-pay and automating the three-way match to create lean, efficient operations.

“On other systems, a three-way match is hard to execute. With OpenOrder, we had all the back info – well ID, supplier info, etc. When you have a PO with approval and coding up front, it’s much easier to validate with the goods receipt. When the supplier submits the invoice, there’s your match all in the same system, in one place. It really automates your approval process,” said Mary Atkinson, the director of supply chain at Grayson Mill Energy.

With OpenOrder, we have all the information, and it all matches.
—Mary Atkinson, Supply Chain Director, Grayson Mill Energy

Enhancing the oil and gas procurement experience

Watch this customer-led session on demand today to hear one E&P’s experience digitalizing the oil and gas procurement process with Enverus OpenOrder.

Regain your sanity with oil and gas procurement and order management

If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing but expecting different results, OpenOrder will bring the sanity back to your procure-to-pay process. You won’t have to work in your cumbersome ordering system that creates manual work, confusion and frustration. Instead, you’ll be trying something different and, we believe, you’ll experience different, better results.

To get a live a live demo of OpenOrder, please fill out the form below.

Enverus Learning and Development helps professionals level up job skills

Changing environmental attitudes, job engagement, an aging workforce, new technologies … these are just a few things affecting the energy workforce today.

A recent survey of global energy industry recruiters and workers reflects these shifts, indicating their importance for all energy producers, from oil and gas to renewable energy. It’s becoming clear how crucial it is for the energy companies to focus on professional development opportunities and training to strengthen engagement and retention in response to these trends.

survey-results-from-ogis-outlook-report-2022 — Survey results from the Energy Outlook Report, an exclusive review of the state of the global energy industry and highlights future trends within oil and gas, renewables and mining.

Introducing Enverus Learning and Development

Enverus is launching a Learning and Development Program in response to these market changes. The continuing education program offers five different learning options for energy professionals to grow their understanding of how to effectively use Enverus solutions and stay current on industry trends. The options include certifications, learning sites, live webinars, education resources and onboarding.

“At Enverus, we’ve always focused on trying to partner with our customers and understand their biggest challenges. This drives the roadmap of what we develop. Over the last three years, we’ve heard more and more about three related challenges: attracting new talent, helping existing workforces become skilled with new technologies and retaining employees. Helping them meet these challenges is why Enverus developed our Learning and Development Program,” said Jimmy Fortuna, chief product officer at Enverus.

Enverus Learning and Development options

Why professional development matters

Energy is always changing, and today, many companies rely on technology that provides advanced data, analytics and technical workflows to make data-based decisions about their business. Professionals need to adjust to these changes by learning new skills and techniques or risk everyday inefficiency at their jobs or career stagnation. Also, new graduates with less work experience might find it difficult to find a job in the industry.

Enverus learning and development helps industry professionals stay on top of trends by educating them on new Enverus PRISM® workflows that help them do their day-to-day work more efficiently. Graduates can benefit from Enverus certifications to stand out amid the competition.
Employee training also benefits leaders. Professional development programs increase employee retention, engagement, technology adoption and productivity, helping a company realize maximum value from technology investments.

Check out these statistics on PRISM usage and adoption before and after participants went through the certification program.

PRISM adoption post-certification by the numbers

“Because of the scale and complexity of the energy industry, today’s businesses do a tremendous amount of research before capital and operating decisions are made. The PRISM platform is the fastest-growing software for the energy sector. Asset teams, executives, investors, business development teams and geologists rely on the platform’s current market data and analytics to improve resource allocation, optimize asset performance and increase the speed of operations. The Learning and Development Program gives PRISM users the knowledge they need to find these critical answers faster and helps companies realize tremendous value from their investment,” said Manuj Nikhanj, president of Enverus.

More about Learning and Development options

Below are more details about the available options with Enverus’ Learning and Development Program:

Certifications offer industry professionals the opportunity to master skills and acquire deeper knowledge of the Enverus PRISM platform. Learners complete a rigorous continuing education program, with different certification levels to learn how to work efficiently to generate their daily workflows, provide better insights and understand how to integrate PRISM within their teams. The certifications are great for professionals already in the industry to level up their skills, people looking to transition into the industry or college graduates looking to distinguish their resume from others in the job market.
Learning sites offer company-branded sites that provide employees the skills and knowledge needed to empower the business to compete in the industry today. Each site allows for the organization to provide a dedicated experience to their employee base to show professional growth and development opportunities.
Live training webinars are available to all PRISM customers with four sessions offered monthly!
Education content, including a large PRISM workbook library, on-demand webinars, and other on-demand training, keeps PRISM users on the cutting edge of key industry topics and shows them how to perform these workflows in PRISM.
Onboarding includes on-demand PRISM onboarding training courses for new or existing users of Enverus ®FOUNDATIONS and Enverus ®CORE, two of the most popular PRISM packages offered by Enverus.

Learn more at enverus.com/learning.

Want to learn more about Enverus Learning and Development? Contact us by filling out the form below.

Analyst takes: 6 January energy trends you need to know

With January 2023 now in our rearview mirror, we wanted to take a moment to look back at some of the key analyst takes on energy trends published by our Enverus Intelligence® | Research (EIR) team. By evaluating the effects of these factors, you’ll be better equipped to make confident business decisions.

Read on to stay informed and to keep a pulse on upcoming energy opportunities in 2023.

German gas demand falls in 4Q22: No Russian imports anticipated (Jan. 10, 2023)

High gas prices and government policy aimed at restricting consumption reduced German industrial gas demand by 23% in 4Q22 versus the previous four-year average, with residential and commercial consumption down 21% in the same period. Despite supplying more than half of Germany’s gas imports in 2021, Russian imports dropped to zero in September, so for the full year, Russian supply accounted for just 22% of a total 1,449 TWh of imports. Supply was made up by additional imports from Netherlands, Belgium and Norway, according to German energy regulator Bundesnetzagentur. Higher than normal winter temperatures (up 1.1 degrees Celsius versus average), high storage levels (above 90% now) and a 33% decline in gas exports from Germany to its neighbors also helped balance the market in 2022. Following the September 2022 attacks on the Nordstream pipeline system, we assume no Russian imports this year, with the shortfall made up by LNG deliveries to new Baltic receiving terminals and additional pipeline supplies .

Strong outlook for oil market in 2023 (Jan. 11, 2023)

We believe 2023 will be another exciting year for energy markets. Commodity fundamentals for oil look strong, while natural gas prices may weaken given limited expected U.S. export growth. In addition, we expect energy transition-related investments to continue to grow on the back of the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. and anticipate other countries will look to compete with accommodative U.S. policy.

CHK’s Brazos Valley sale: A key strategic goal achieved (Jan. 20, 2023)

The sale of CHK’s Brazos Valley (Eastern Eagle Ford) asset for $1.425 billion checks off a key strategic goal the company laid out in 2022 and moves it closer to a simplified gas portfolio. However, it comes at the cost of diluting CHK’s EBITDA multiple and FCF yield as we calculate the asset transacted at 3.2x EBITDA and a 15% FCF yield versus CHK currently trading at 4.1x and 10%, respectively. That cash flow is unlikely to be fully replaced should the proceeds be rolled into a new asset as acquisitions by CHK are likely to target lower production but higher upside gas positions. Next up for CHK will be executing on a sale of their remaining oil-weighted asset in the Eagle Ford. Buyer WildFire Energy I (Warburg Pincus and Kayne Anderson sponsored) is getting the position for less than the value of current production and high grading the quality of their existing Brazos Valley inventory. With hundreds of undeveloped locations economic in today’s oil price environment, WildFire will likely add rigs and grow production after CHK invested little recent capital in the asset .

Shift in M&A: Grabbing assets before they disappear (Jan. 24, 2023)

The biggest shift in recent M&A is the escalating cost of high-quality inventory, and MTDR’s purchase of Advance Energy Partners continues the trend. We calculate the company paid ~$2.7 million each for about 150 core Delaware locations that break even at an average of $37/bbl. The deal is in line with 2H22 M&A in the Midland Basin from FANG ($2.5 million per location average for two deals) and MRO in the Eagle Ford ($2.2 million per location). Despite the high headline price for inventory, MTDR was able to keep the purchase accretive to free cash flow (11% on the deal vs. 9% MTDR pre-deal) assisted by its premium valuation that sits above most SMID-cap peers. The company was wise to grab the assets now as core M&A opportunities are dwindling, and top-tier inventory is likely to continue to appreciate in price. We see Ameredev II, Percussion, Tap Rock and Tall City as among the remaining Delaware Basin privates holding substantial sub-$45/bbl breakeven inventory.

North American drilling and completion spending on the rise in 2023 (Jan. 27, 2023)

Starting Jan. 20 , SLB kicked off earnings season, followed this week by the other major integrated OFS companies (BKR, HAL). Consensus among the Big 3 was that North American (NAM) drilling and completion (D&C) spend would increase ~15% in 2023. Constrained by the tightness of the pressure pumping market, we would agree with a 15% – 20% uplifit in NAM D&C spending. Enverus’ current outlook only calls for ~5% increase in total L48 completion activity in 2023 as compared to a ~20% increase in 2022; we expect well cost inflation to run ~12% E/E in 2023. While the pace of NAM activity growth decelerates, SLB, BKR and HAL agreed that international markets, especially the Middle East and Latin America, are poised to grow significantly in 2023 as countries refocus on energy security — giving rise to the belief that we are in the early stages of a multi-year upcycle in global oil and gas investment.

On the domestic front, HAL, RES and LBRT all stated that the pressure pumping market looks to remain tight in 2023 and into 2024. Demand for high-tech fracture fleets (electric and DGB) continues to grow, particularly as gas prices move lower. Both LBRT and HAL see attrition, supply chain challenges and limited new build capacity with long lead times working to keep the market tight and disciplined. RES stated that lead times on new builds are pushing out past 12 months currently, and they expect their fleet count to remain flat throughout 2023. We currently expect fracture fleet capacity to grow ~5%, net of attrition, in 2023; however, if pressure pumpers fail to retire older fleets as new builds come online, marketed supply of fracture fleets could grow as much as 10%.

Global jet fuel demand: A post-pandemic reality check (Jan. 27, 2023)

Back in 2020, we anticipated global jet fuel demand would not return to pre-COVID levels until 2024. Today, busy airports and being stuck in traffic have some thinking that consumption of transportation fuels must have recovered or exceeded pre-pandemic draws. However, the truth is far from that. Global gasoline, jet fuel/kerosene consumption in 2022 remain roughly 2.5 MMbbl/d below pre-COVID (2019) levels. The composition of oil demand is changing — away from transportation fuels and toward petrochemical feedstocks .

Make better business decisions with EIR’s energy expertise

EIR’s analyst insights are crucial to your business decision-making. Being ahead of the game is vital in this rapidly evolving sector and keeping abreast of new developments is essential for success. To stay informed about the energy industry, follow EIR on LinkedIn where you’ll receive more information on the outlook for 2023 and beyond. We’re excited to offer valuable guidance for navigating the constantly changing energy landscape.

2023 Mineral and Royalty Market Outlook Report

Following a year of unexpected volatility with oil and gas prices, anticipating what revenue streams will look like in 2023 is top of mind for mineral owners. 2022 started with expectations of a return to a typical, flatter price curve after the economic and demand disruption of COVID-19. However, Russia-Ukraine war and OPEC+ production cuts saw a return to $100 oil and natural gas that doubled its new year start. With barrels from the second largest producer off the market, urgent attention was suddenly focused on Europe’s energy security and a sustainable supply of natural gas.

Despite prices that have settled below their 2022 highs, the outlook for 2023 sees a return to higher oil prices and a bright, long-term future for natural gas. With operators shedding their pandemic-era hedges, leading indicators point to the same conclusion.

Commodity price outlook

U.S. mineral owners are part of a global energy market where geopolitics, regional conflicts and the standard of living in emerging economies all influence commodity prices and the size of revenue checks. The Russia-Ukraine war has brought this into sharp focus, though the impact on energy markets will take time to play out. Contrary to the attention-grabbing headlines, Europe’s energy supply has been preserved with 90% of energy contracts covered through the winter and sanctions on Russian oil exports only taking effect from December 2022 through February 2023.

Primary drivers of higher commodity prices include:

Russian sanctions on oil and refined products.
Slow build out of U.S. LNG export facilities influenced by ESG.
Evolving COVID-19 restrictions in China.
Potential for a colder winter signaled by once-in-a-generation “arctic invasion” in December.

Oil forecast

Look for oil prices between $80 to $120 in 2023, with prices settling around $90 for the year. Check stubs may start to look different though as operators continue to focus on completion of an entire drilling spacing unit on multi-well pads, capital discipline and returning value to shareholders. A low rig count and declining production mean that mineral revenue streams will only get a boost from the anticipated favorable oil pricing.

The downside for 2023 is that declining production could intersect with declining prices and drilling to create a revenue crater for mineral owners. Upside drivers include increasing demand for jet fuel and motor oil driven by business-related travel, India and China remaining open for business, and expanding vehicle purchases.

To make informed decisions and build the right mineral investment and management strategies with trusted insights, download the full version of the 2023 Mineral and Royalty Outlook Report.

oil-and-gas-supply-and-demand-outlook-press-release

Mild winter weather, strong supply prompt slashed natural gas prices

CALGARY, Alberta (February 1, 2023) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released its latest quarterly FundamentalEdge report focused on global drivers for oil and gas prices in 2023, the five-year oil and gas supply and demand outlook, as well as price forecasts.

“Unseasonably warm weather, record high supply and delays to the Freeport LNG restart inflated our end-of-winter natural gas storage estimate. This higher storage projection worsens the oversupply already expected for midyear, pushing our summer price forecast down by as much as $1/MMBtu from previous outlooks,” said Bill Farren-Price, director of EIR.

Meanwhile, oil prices are expected to rise on tighter balances in the year ahead. “We expect rising oil demand in the second half of 2023 to spark inventory draws and higher prices, with a price call for Q4 an estimated $20-$30/bbl above the current forward strip,” Farren-Price added.

Key takeaways from the report:

Bullish oil price outlook is driven by anemic supply growth and moderate projected demand.
The Permian Basin will drive the most global oil supply growth, however, we expect supply will struggle to offset Russian losses and OPEC will backstop with fresh cuts if Brent prices fall below $70/bbl.
Gas balances have a different story as we forecast sub-$3 NYMEX in 2023 supported by record warm winter weather and strong U.S. gas supply.

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus’ expert analysts.

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

Increase visibility and efficiency with OpenTicket Mobile digital field ticketing software

In the face of ongoing cost inflation and economic uncertainty, operators are under increasing pressure to demonstrate efficiencies and fiscal discipline.

For operations and accounts payable teams, reviewing and approving high volumes of field tickets continues to be a major source of inefficiency. Field supervisors are particularly overwhelmed by the number of tickets they need to review and approve, and it’s especially challenging to validate the scope of unsupervised work. For those using paper field tickets, efficiency challenges are exacerbated by error-prone manual data entry, lack of visibility into spend and increased travel time required to collect paper field tickets.

To help all parties overcome these challenges, Enverus created OpenTicket, a cloud-based digital field ticketing software solution that enables operators and service providers to generate, review and approve digital field tickets for faster invoice approvals and payment.

Since its launch in 2016, OpenTicket has been instrumental in eliminating the need for paper field tickets in the oilfield. OpenTicket seamlessly integrates with OpenInvoice, making it the only digital field ticketing and invoice platform with automated reconciliation and compliance for a completely digital, end-to-end review and approval process. By managing e-ticketing and invoicing on the same platform, operators shorten and streamline the service-to-invoice process, reducing mistakes and duplicate tickets and invoices.

Currently, OpenTicket is used by more than 90 operators, with 7,500 suppliers submitting digital field tickets to the network. And using Enverus’ digital field ticketing solution is only getting easier.

Introducing OpenTicket Mobile

OpenTicket now offers even greater efficiency and time savings with the new OpenTicket Mobile app.

Oilfield services are often provided in remote areas and at unsupervised job sites which often don’t have Wi-Fi or cell service, making it tough to stay connected. OpenTicket Mobile’s GPS and geofencing capabilities eliminate this issue, providing visibility into work done on site — including work done at remote and unsupervised jobs sites — with detailed views of routes and hours spent on the entire job. Ticket details that match mobile data provided by the supplier are automatically validated, and approvers are alerted to erroneous tickets for further investigation or dispute.

Real-time tracking of work performed

During a job, GPS readings are recorded and matched to the digital field ticket provided by the supplier. Geofencing, the associated physical coordinates to a service site (i.e., well, storage tank, gas plant, etc.), can also be used to confirm the service provider was close to the location.

The service company representative can pause the trip time and locations during a trip if needed. They can also enter appropriate job information related to the work done and attach backup documentation, including site pictures, to the digital field ticket. The ticket is validated in the supplier’s OpenTicket system before submission, ensuring all business requirements, such as mandatory data and coding, are supported.

Preview of the Enverus OpenTicket digital field ticketing app on a laptop — OpenTicket displays the trip summary, route details with time stamps and geofence information, making work time and route verification easy.

Save time with automatic ticket validation

When digital field tickets are submitted for validation and approval, additional information is added to each ticket, including:

The job route displayed in the ticket approval screen.
The hours taken between the start and stop times of the job, less any pause time.
Serviced locations identified by geofencing.

Ticket details that match mobile data provided by the supplier are automatically validated. Alerts signal approvers if the number of hours or service locations entered on the ticket don’t align with GPS and geofencing records. This allows you to switch to a manage by exception model for more time savings.

Link to on-demand SPARK 2022 session "Easy Work Validation With Mobile Job Tracking" on Enverus Knowledge Hub

Creating value for operators and their suppliers

OpenTicket Mobile expands the value for both operators and their suppliers.

Save time: With automatic field ticket validation, approvers only spend time following up on inaccurate tickets. This allows operations personnel to focus more time on their job, and less time chasing information on work performed. For suppliers, this means a faster cycle from ticket approval to invoicing.
Improve spend management: Generating and managing digital field tickets with Enverus OpenTicket captures detailed electronic field ticket data for deeper and more timely visibility into accruals and operations.
Service delivery confirmation: With OpenTicket Mobile, viewing and confirming routing and work performed at unmanned locations becomes much easier.

Get started with OpenTicket Mobile

OpenTicket customers can provide OpenTicket Mobile to suppliers at no additional cost. The app is available for iOS and Android operating systems.

Buyers can determine which suppliers are required to use the application. Individual users are registered to the supplier, so field crews and drivers are identified through the application.

With the new mobile app, OpenTicket strengthens its value for LOE and D&C operations. Operations teams in the field can turn more focus on maximizing production and managing job safety. Suppliers can leverage IoT technology to accurately track the work performed so they can focus on the work at hand.

Want to learn more about OpenTicket Mobile? Please fill out the form to request a demo.

Analyst takes: 11 energy trends you should know about in 2023

With the first month of 2023 almost in the books, we wanted to take a moment to look back at some of the key analyst takes on energy trends published by our Enverus Intelligence® | Research (EIR) team at the end of 2022, so you can confidently assess how they may affect your business decisions going forward.

Read on to stay ahead of the game when it comes to staying informed about current and future energy opportunities!

Oil prices to remain high through 2023: A constructive view driven by policy, investment and geopolitical factors (Dec. 22, 2022)

EIR’s constructive view on oil prices is driven by an interplay of policy, investment and geopolitical drivers, which will keep global oil supply tight through 2023 and beyond, pinning oil prices toward the top end of the post-COVID-19 range. High prices amid a spluttering global economy engender longer-term risks for oil however, since counter-cyclical high prices could deepen and prolong an economic recession, testing consumers’ tolerance until more violent demand destruction occurs.

Natural gas prices drop as warmer temperatures return: Will production freeze-offs repeat February 2021 event? (Dec. 19, 2022)

The prompt NYMEX contract has fallen more than 10% today to below $6.00/MMBtu as warmer temperatures have become more established for the latter part of the 15-day forecast. Near-term temperatures are expected to trend well below normal and bottom out around Christmas time. All eyes will be on the severity of production freeze offs and whether they will rival the February 2021 event which led to a 7 Bcf/d month-over-month decline in Lower 48 dry gas production. The Permian was the largest contributor to this decline with Midland, Texas, during the February 2021 event, recording about nine consecutive days of below freezing temperatures with the lowest daily mean temperature of 7.4 degrees Fahrenheit. Current forecasts are not nearly as dire and only show about three consecutive days of below freezing temps with Friday’s forecast of 14.7 degrees Fahrenheit being the coldest.

OPEC+ to rollover oil supply targets as group watches impact of EU sanctions, G7 proposals and Chinese demand (Dec. 2, 2022)

The OPEC+ oil producers are set to rollover their oil supply targets when they meet virtually this weekend, following on from the 2 MMbbl/d nominal cut they announced in October. Despite Saudi comments over the last month that further cuts could be made in order to stabilize balances that are under siege from worsening recessionary indicators, the producer group is now planning to allow more time to establish the impact of the EU sanctions on Russian oil exports, the G7-proposed oil price cap on Russian exports and a better sense of the outlook for Chinese oil demand in 2023 as Beijing’s COVID policies remain in flux. While there is no date for a subsequent meeting, the OPEC president can call a meeting at any time to discuss further cuts if they are needed. A likely OPEC+ rollover does not in EIR’s view mark a departure in OPEC oil supply policy that aims to keep global stocks well below the 5YA and pin Brent around $90/bbl.

OPEC’s denial of oil output hike report highlights finely balanced markets and relevance of Saudi Arabia’s influence (Dec. 2, 2022)

Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal report suggesting that OPEC+ would consider an oil output hike of 500 Mbbl/d at its next meeting was enough to cloak OPEC’s recent pivot to supply management in a large cloud of doubt. With financial markets already on edge over recession and the pace of monetary tightening, oil slid fast to test lows not seen since January, before the Ukraine war broke out. But Saudi Arabia didn’t hesitate to correct the record. Within hours, the energy minister had made an unusual formal statement denying the report, reiterating the existing cuts and pointing out that OPEC+ could cut deeper if needed to help balance markets. Oil prices responded by erasing most of the earlier losses. For a group of producers who have long preferred issuing smoke signals through unnamed sources, refuted reporting is hardly new. But it does underline two important conclusions for market participants at a febrile moment for oil markets. First, what Saudi Arabia says and does on oil supply is still highly relevant to global oil balances. Second, this oil market is finely balanced, and while EIR still see structurally tight supply as bullish heading into 2023, we also acknowledge the risks of a more violent collapse in demand. EIR is not forecasting that, but it is a tail risk.

Johan Sverdrup field boosts Norway’s oil production: Equinor’s Phase 2 development on schedule (Dec. 15, 2022)

Equinor has started production from Phase 2 of the Johan Sverdrup field on schedule. The development will boost oil production from 500 Mbbl/d to 720 Mbbl/d, contributing about a third of Norwegian oil production. EIR expects the field to increase 2023 Norwegian production to ~2.1 MMbbl/d. Norway’s oil production growth is key to offsetting output declines in EIR’s NOCAR region (not OPEC, Canada, U.S. or Russia).

APA and partner TTE discover non-commercial well in northern Block 58, oil resource below FID threshold in eastern Block 58 (Nov. 28, 2022)

APA announced a non-commercial discovery on the Awari well (operated by 50-50 partner TTE), which follows the Bonboni well as the second such result in the northern portion of Block 58. In the western portion of the block, gas-commerciality snags are deterring FID; in the east, oil resource from several black oil discoveries appears below the FID threshold (especially after considering operator TTE’s cost carry). EIR estimates the JV requires finding an additional 300 MMbbl of black oil before sanctioning its first oil development hub in the eastern part of Block 58 between Sapakara South and Krabdagu.

West Coast gas market tightness worsened by cold weather and maintenance: Canadian operators stand to benefit from record-breaking prices (Dec. 15, 2022)

Short term issues like colder than normal weather and maintenance on El Paso Natural Gas and Gas Transmission Northwest (GTN) have exacerbated gas market tightness that was already prevalent on the West Coast gas after the Pacific Gas and Electric storage reclassification in the summer of 2021. Malin basis settled at $26.10/MMBtu recently, with the potential for more record shattering basis prints to come as West Coast temperatures are expected to plunge over the next five days. Canadian gas operators TOU, ARX, OVV and NVA all hold firm transportation on the GTN pipeline, which provides exposure to these historic prices.

Net Power’s innovative oxy-combustion technology poised to revolutionize low-cost, clean power generation with upcoming IPO? (Dec. 15, 2022)

Net Power’s (NPWR) announced IPO via SPAC will be a positive step forward in funding the company as it aims to develop its first utility scale power plant. NPWR developed an innovative technology that generates reliable, low-cost, clean power from natural gas using an oxy-combustion process to inherently capture CO2 emissions. The nature of oxy-fuel combustion significantly reduces the cost of capture but increases parasitic loads. Company disclosure suggests they can capture CO2 around $10/tonne, well below our average breakeven estimate of $65/tonne for similar sized natural gas plants retrofitted with MEA capture technology. However, these aren’t quite apples to apples comparison, as Net Power’s technology cannot be retrofitted onto existing plants. Using the 45Q carbon capture tax credits to offset fuel and operating costs, NPWR suggests it can operate at a cost of only ~$4/MWh, meaning it could compete with thermal power assets for dispatch. NPWR also calculates a $21 levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) at $3.50/MMbtu gas, which competes for capital with new wind and solar projects. However, EIR expects carbon transportation and storage to be major challenges for this technology in regions that are less friendly to pipelines. If their claimed power generation capacities, capture costs and LCOE prove true then this technology could be a game changer for low carbon, baseload power generation.

E3 Lithium secures funding for pioneering Direct Lithium Extraction in Alberta: Commercialization expected in 2026 (Nov. 18, 2022)

E3 Lithium, who is pioneering Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) in Alberta, announced that it has received $27 million from Canada’s Strategic Innovation Fund. Although yet to be proven commercially viable, E3 Lithium has started on the path to commercialization, expected in 2026, with the completion of their first lithium evaluation well Oct. 27, 2022. At the site of their Clearwater Project, the well drilled into the Leduc Formation showed lithium concentrations in the range of 76 ppm, equal to roughly 64 grams of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) per barrel. With anticipated production of 20,000 tonnes of LCE per year, the project will need to flow massive amounts of water, more than 282 million barrels per year, or about 845,000 barrels per day. This will require a lot of wells. At 60,000 bbl/d per well, which EIR views as optimistic, the project will require at least 15 production wells and an equal number of injection wells.

CVX’s acquisition of Mercuria Energy’s Beyond6 highlights importance of securing CNG demand for RNG economics in the US (Nov. 22, 2022)

CVX’s acquisition of Mercuria Energy’s subsidiary Beyond6, which includes a network of 55 compressed natural gas (CNG) stations across the United States, highlights the importance of securing CNG demand to further strengthen RNG economics. Competition to gain access to transportation markets will increase as RNG project-level economics significantly improve after the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act. The Beyond6 deal is interesting as only 6% of Beyond6’s stations are in the California, the state where the maximum value for RNG occurs. Still, manure- and landfill-based biogas projects selling into transportation markets outside of California/LCFS-eligible state generate IRRs of 114% and 172% after the IRA.

Chevron’s Gorgon CCS project struggles with reservoir pressure challenges, offsets purchase suggests unforeseen reservoir heterogeneities (Nov. 17, 2022)

Chevron recently cited reservoir pressure challenges due to water management systems as the main contributor to its inability to meet targeted 2021 CO2 injection volumes at its Gorgon CCS project (1.65 Mt of CO2 injected vs. target of 4 mtpa). We believe suboptimal reservoir quality, possibly including unforeseen small scale reservoir heterogeneities, could be worsening the problem. The operator’s intention to purchase offsets suggests that the anticipated injection rates from reservoir modelling may not have accounted for such variability in the reservoir rock.

Staying ahead of the game

EIR’s analyst takes can make all the difference when it comes to your business decisions. Staying ahead of the game is paramount in this fast-paced sector, and monitoring new developments is key to success. To further stay informed on the energy industry, subscribe to EIR’s LinkedIn page, where you’ll find more insights on what’s in store for 2023 and beyond. We look forward to providing more valuable insight into navigating today’s ever-changing energy landscape.

Achieve lean, efficient oil and gas operations in 2023

Challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, complex new energy policies and historic levels of inflation have created challenging conditions for oil and gas companies over the past two years. There is mounting pressure on E&Ps to produce in more efficient and environmentally sound ways, without sacrificing bottom line performance, even as demand for oilfield services continues to outpace supply, driving OFS costs higher and higher. Meanwhile, supply chain, operations, finance and accounting teams must find ways to handle more work with fewer resources.

With all these compounding factors at play, what can oil and gas companies do today to relieve their teams of unprecedented pressure while delivering maximum value to shareholders both now and into the future?

This fueled much of the discourse at Enverus’ 18th annual SPARK Conference in San Antonio, Texas.

At last year’s event, employees from diverse E&P, OFS and midstream companies took the stage in a series of customer-led sessions to share how they’ve been automating processes and streamlining workflows to create synergies across supply chain, operations and finance and accounting teams. SPARK 2022 also showcased the latest Enverus source-to-pay innovations in sessions led by our in-house product experts, giving attendees a sneak peek into upcoming innovations in oil and gas source-to-pay solutions. Finally, keynote presentations focused on macro trends impacting oil and gas professionals today and the role of technology and innovation in navigating some of energy’s greatest challenges in 2023 and beyond.

Let’s look back at the biggest takeaways and announcements from SPARK 2022 that oil and gas professionals can use in 2023 to achieve leaner, more efficient oil and gas operations in the face of extreme inflation and volatility.

Investment in technology, data and analytics is key to accelerate the speed of operations and make impactful decisions.
Operations professionals are looking to digital field tickets for enhanced tracking, validation, approval and compliance.
New solutions for strategic sourcing and contracting will help address supply chain challenges and tightness in OFS markets.
Oil and gas companies are adopting end-to-end digitalization of the source-to-pay process to combat double-digit inflation.

1. Investment in technology, data and analytics is key to accelerate the speed of operations and make impactful decisions

In today’s environment of extremes — extreme volatility, extreme inflation, extreme pressure to deliver competitive shareholder returns — technological innovation is crucial as oil and gas companies continue to look for ways to achieve leaner, more efficient operations.

“Our industry still struggles with laggard technology that prevents accelerated operating efficiency,” says Enverus President Manuj Nikhanj. “You need to know where to focus and implement change.”

The themes shared in these opening remarks carry strongly throughout the 2022 SPARK Conference sessions. From customer-led sessions to keynote presentations, the message is clear: Investment in technology, data and analytics is key to accelerate the speed of operations and make impactful decisions.

Specifically, investing in a comprehensive, connected, energy-dedicated source-to-pay platform that unlocks advanced insights into data will enable oil and gas companies to see greater efficiencies and productivity. The following clip offers a look into the possibilities that become available to operators with the right technology and data solutions in place.

Your SPARK 2022 playlist: Technology, data and analytics

For industry professionals looking to get a deeper understanding of how technology, data and analytics solutions can be leveraged by oil and gas players to strengthen performance amid current market conditions, we recommend watching the following session replay:

Driving Value From Data: Weaponizing Data to Fuel Your Value Chain: In the current environment of cost inflation and supply chain constraints, the cornerstone to a successful operating strategy is your spend data. But data without context can be dangerous. In this session, we demo our OpenInsights solution, provide more context to the data and show you how you can access this spend data and unlock its value to go from supply chain to value chain.

2. Operations professionals are looking to digital field tickets for enhanced tracking, validation, approval and compliance

Whether you work in accounts payable, D&C operations or LOE operations, paper field tickets create headaches such as lost tickets, delayed approvals, error prone manual entry and unnecessary time spent “pushing paper.” For operator field supervisors in particular, the sheer volume of tickets being submitted for review and approval can be overwhelming. Meanwhile, audits continue to reveal that suppliers are overbilling.

To help all parties overcome these challenges, Enverus created OpenTicket — a cloud-based digital field ticketing software solution that enables operators and service providers to generate, review and approve digital field tickets for faster invoice approvals and payment. OpenTicket Mobile’s GPS and geofencing capabilities provide visibility into work done on site, including work done at remote and unsupervised jobs sites, with detailed views of routes and hours spent on the entire job.

Digitalizing oil and gas field ticketing with OpenTicket also unlocks advanced project spend insights, and its seamless integration with Enverus OpenInvoice makes OpenTicket the only oil and gas field ticket and invoice platform with automated reconciliation and compliance for a completely digital, end-to-end review and approval process compliant with accounting standards.

“OpenTicket makes everyone feel more accountable to what they’re approving.”
— Christina Barela, business integrity and vendor compliance at Diamondback Energy

As the need to do more with less continues to be a common theme for energy companies, digital field ticketing offers oil and gas companies an opportunity to relieve operations and accounting teams of busywork so they can focus more time and energy on high value activities, while integration with the OpenInvoice platform unlocks additional functionalities that can help prevent rogue spend and offer advanced project spend insights.

Your SPARK 2022 playlist: Digital field ticketing

For those looking to simplify the field ticketing process, gain additional insights into work performed or accelerate the invoicing process while reliving accounts payable teams of unnecessary and time-consuming manual tasks, we recommend starting with the following session:

Easy Work Validation With Mobile Job Tracking: Tracking and validating unsupervised labor used for production operations has been a challenge both before and after digital field ticketing. In this session, the newly released OpenTicket Mobile application is demonstrated. See how GPS tracking, geofencing and additional alerts can expedite tracking and approval of digital field tickets.

3. New solutions for strategic sourcing and contracting will help address supply chain challenges and tightness in OFS markets

At SPARK 2021, transforming supply chain into a strategic source of value through improved processes and cost efficiency was top of mind for many companies as they grappled with the first waves of pandemic-induced supply chain shocks. Not surprisingly, transforming supply chain into a strategic source of value remained a strong point of discussion at SPARK 2022 as companies face record-breaking inflationary pressures and tightness in OFS markets.

“Operators need sourcing strategies that increase efficiency for fiscally sustainable growth.”
— Dan MacDonald, senior director of Source-to-Pay at Enverus

To that end, exciting new advancements in oil and gas procurement software are already helping operators and midstream companies streamline processes and improve efficiency. With simplified ordering, end-to-end spend visibility and automated workflows and compliance checks, procurement automation solutions such as OpenOrder makes it easy for oil and gas companies to create and process purchase orders and work orders for dispatching services and ordering materials. At the same time, advanced spend analytics become available to these teams to help them make faster, more strategic decisions.

Your SPARK 2022 playlist: Strategic sourcing and contracting

To hear more from customers and Enverus’ product team about the latest solutions for smart sourcing, contracting and ordering, check out these SPARK sessions on the Enverus Knowledge Hub:

From Field to Finance: Faster Visibility Into Operations: Connecting the field to the office to gain more accurate, up-to-date visibility into operational spend was a key objective for one of our clients. Learn how we worked together to deliver streamlined job and dispatch management in this client-led case study session and gain insight into the future roadmap for these solutions.
From Point A to Point B: A Preview of Digital Inventory & Material Transfers: Flexible and robust materials management forms a new pillar of our expanding Source-to-Pay solution. Take a closer look at the capabilities that we’re building alongside customers to improve the visibility and tracking of materials and assets throughout their lifecycles and see a demo of our new inventory and material transfer application, including a preview of the upcoming operator mobile application.

4. Oil and gas companies are adopting end-to-end digitalization of the source-to-pay process to combat double-digit inflation

Companies who choose to digitalize the end-to-end source-to-pay process on a fully integrated cloud-based platform will be best prepared to navigate current and future disruptions in the energy ecosystem, such as the astonishing levels of inflation we’re experiencing in the aftermath of the global coronavirus pandemic. From accounts payable automations to supply chain innovations, full source-to-pay digitalization on an energy-dedicated platform unlocks opportunities to create more value with fewer resources.

“There is an opportunity that many energy companies haven’t fully tapped into that could and would have a profound positive impact on your operating efficiency and bottom line — digitalizing the entire source-to-pay process.”
— Colin Westmoreland, chief innovation officer at Enverus

Your SPARK 2022 playlist: Energy-dedicated source-to-pay

To see how all the solutions and themes we’ve discussed today can be brought together in a single, energy-dedicated source-to-pay platform to streamline processes across supply chain, operations, finance and accounting for improved efficiency, compliance and performance, we recommend starting with following session:

Innovation Acceleration: Source-to-Pay: The complexity of the energy industry requires a comprehensive, connected source-to-pay platform, and we are bringing it to life! Join our leadership team as we share an update of the vision and roadmap.

There’s more to explore

From industry-wide challenges to new product roadmaps for supply chain, operations, finance and accounting on the ever-expanding Enverus source-to-pay platform, to customer-led presentations that shed light on the onboarding experience and ongoing benefits of Enverus Source-to-Pay solutions — SPARK 2022 offered tremendous value for oil and gas companies looking to achieve leaner, more efficient, more profitable operations in 2023 and beyond.

While we tried to pack as much value into this one blog post as we possibly could, there is still so much more to explore. For the full menu of on-demand sessions from SPARK 2022, head over to the Enverus Knowledge Hub today.

SPARK 2022 On Demand - Click to Watch Now

merger-and-acquisition-activity-enverus-press-release

Upstream M&A falls 13% year-over-year in 2022 to $58B

CALGARY, Alberta (January 24, 2023) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, is releasing its summary of 4Q22 upstream merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. For 2022, U.S. upstream M&A saw $58 billion transacted in 160 deals, including $13 billion from 26 deals in the fourth quarter. While deal values are down just about 20% from pre-pandemic averages, the volume of deals has collapsed to a nearly two-decade low as activity has been driven by large companies targeting the highest quality assets in billion-dollar-plus deals.

“Large-cap public companies like Devon Energy, Diamondback Energy, and Marathon Oil dominated deal activity in the back half of 2022,” said Andrew Dittmar, director at Enverus Intelligence Research. “These buyers have the balance sheet strength and favorable stock valuations to take advantage of large, high-quality offerings from private sellers. Critically, they can strike deals that both accretive to current cash flow and extend their runway of drilling locations. For smaller companies, which are still having their equity value discounted, it is challenging to thread the needle of buying assets at accretive multiples and being able to pay for inventory.”

Top 5 U.S. upstream deals of 4Q22

Date	Buyers	Sellers	Deal Type	U.S. Play	Value ($MM)
10/17/22	Hamm Family	Continental Resources	Corporate	Multiple	$5,219
11/02/22	Marathon Oil	Ensign Nat. Res.	Property	Eagle Ford	$3,000
10/11/22	Diamondback	Firebird Energy	Property	Midland	$1,592
11/16/22	Diamondback	Lario Oil & Gas	Property	Midland	$1,548
11/02/22	Sable Offshore	ExxonMobil	Property	Conventional	$625

Source: Enverus M&A Analytics.

Two of the largest deals in the fourth quarter of 2022 were Midland Basin acquisitions by Diamondback, historically one of the more active buyers in the region. Cumulatively, the company spent a little more than $3 billion to add nearly 500 new drilling locations that are highly economic in the current oil price environment. For Diamondback, adding inventory is more of a luxury than a necessity as the company already has more than a decade’s worth of top-tier inventory. Marathon is also well positioned with about 10 years’ worth of drilling locations economic down to $45/bbl. The company still added another 550 locations to its portfolio though when it purchased private Ensign Natural Resources in the Eagle Ford’s largest deal since Chesapeake purchased WildHorse Resource Development for nearly $4 billion in late-2018.

“E&Ps of all sizes have proven to investors they can be profitable and pay dividends,” added Dittmar. “Now the key question is how long they can sustain profitable margins, determined by commodity prices which they can’t control and the quality of their drilling opportunities which they can control, at least to an extent. Inventory life is where large caps have a substantial advantage over smaller rivals and investors recognize that by giving them a premium on their stock. In turn, they can use that premium to buy more assets. It is a market where the rich get richer.”

Private equity sellers have accounted for most of the assets on the market in recent years, and Enverus anticipates that trend continuing. These capital providers still have substantial investments in oil and gas they are looking to unwind, either because they are coming up against the end of a fund life, for ESG reasons, or both. Public companies’ concurrent appetite for inventory is giving them an ideal window to sell. That said, there are few fire-sale bargains to be had, and sellers are willing to walk away from a deal if none of the offers meet their minimum price. That further makes it challenging for small companies.

“There are a few options available for small cap companies struggling to secure inventory in the current market,” added Dittmar. “Corporate M&A hasn’t been a significant part of the market since 2020, but we could see a return to public company deals this year either from small companies combining in mergers of equals to build scale and hopefully get a higher multiple on their stock or selling to larger competitors that already trades at a premium valuation.”

Most likely, however, these smaller companies will stay independent and focus on adding less expensive inventory in areas like the Permian Rim or Powder River Basin. They could also try to capitalize on non-core assets shed by large cap companies. Already in 2023, Chesapeake Energy sold its Brazos Valley asset at what looked to be a buyer-friendly price, although that was scooped up by private WildFire Energy rather than a small cap public buyer. If large, strategic M&A is too expensive, smaller companies could also look to build inventory block-by-block in a return to a higher volume but lower deal value M&A market. That is the type of transaction Permian Resources has already struck early this year as they added incremental high-quality inventory at an attractive price in the New Mexico portion of the Permian.

Another interesting type of corporate M&A, but one unlikely to play a major role in the market, is public companies being taken private. A go-private transaction accounted for the largest deal of 4Q22 when the Hamm family acquired the public portion of Continental Resources for more than $5 billion. However, that was a unique situation because they already owned most of the company. A few others could be in the same position such as Comstock Resources, largely owned by Jerry Jones, or, on a larger scale, Berkshire Hathaway trying to consolidate Occidental Petroleum as a private investment.

Overall, the need for public companies to secure inventory is likely to keep the M&A market active in 2023. “The challenge for deals, as is often the case in this industry, will be bridging the bid-ask spread and navigating commodity price volatility,” concluded Dittmar. “Oil prices are likely to be steady or rising during the first half of the year while gas struggles, meaning more oil deals and fewer for gas to start 2023. However, we could see interest in buying gas assets mid-year to take advantage of low prices ahead of a U.S. LNG export ramp that will eventually drive gas higher.”

Members of the media can contact Jon Haubert to request a copy of the full report or to schedule an interview with one of Enverus’ expert analysts.

About Enverus
Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS platform, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 98% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 35,000 suppliers. Our platform, with intelligent connections, drives more efficient production and distribution, capital allocation, renewable energy development, investment and sourcing, and our experienced industry experts support our customers through thought leadership, consulting and technology innovations. We provide intelligence across the energy ecosystem: renewables, oil and gas, financial institutions, and power and utilities, with more than 6,000 customers in 50 countries. Learn more at Enverus.com.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters. Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser.

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

Simplify mineral management and maximize revenue with the right technology solutions

Oil and gas operating companies and non-ops — mineral, royalty and working interest owners — are two sides of the same coin. In the digital age, non-ops need to be just as data and software savvy as E&Ps, but technology innovation has historically focused on operators. However, there is good news for non-ops.

With Enverus’ purpose-built mineral management technology and business automation solutions, non-ops are able to automate revenue delivery and manage portfolios at any scale. With critical data sets built directly into these tools (wells, volumes, mineral appraisals, units, rig activity, etc.), users can manage the entire investment lifecycle from pre-acquisition due diligence , mineral portfolio management through maximizing deal value for divestitures.

Let’s review the day-to-day management of a non-op portfolio and show how mineral funds, family offices, banks, foundations and endowments know that they are always in pay, ensure revenue accuracy and optimize their G&A costs.

What’s holding back the non-op back office?

While operators and non-ops may be two sides of a coin, mineral, royalty and working interest investors have very different business drivers with tough questions that need answers, such as:

Am I getting paid correctly for my interest in a well?
Were the right commodity prices used to calculate my revenue?
Are operators charging me correctly for deductions?
Am I in pay on all new producing wells on my property?
Am I being paid correctly following the payout conversion on a well?
Were the correct oil, gas and NGL volumes used to calculate my revenue?

These are straight forward questions that are all too often impossible to easily answer.

One of the biggest barriers is the massive paper data problem and persistent manual data entry that non-ops face in the back office. It’s not uncommon to receive a check stub for a stripper well that’s more than 300 pages, making it cost more to process revenue details than the hydrocarbons are worth. Many non-ops struggle to close their month and that leaves precious little time to consider the big picture, missing wells and underpayments.

Non-ops also contend with a fragmented digital ecosystem of software and data silos, presenting a complicated mix of paper-based processes and digital revenue and JIBs. Organizational barriers to answering simple questions also persist that impede efficient mineral management workflows, including departmental layers of ownership where land owns leases and division orders, while accounting owns revenue and expenses.

These old methods of managing the non-op back office stand in the way of answering important questions. The main cause for underpayments (or non-payment for missing wells) is simply operator oversight. Today’s fast-paced production environment places enormous strain on operators who are being asked to produce more. Underreported volumes, missing wells on revenue detail statements, incorrect decimals and improper deductions (e.g., being charged for a no-cost lease) fall through the cracks.

A better way forward through automation and integration

One hundred percent of your non-op revenue can now be delivered straight into Enverus’ cloud-based mineral management software for touchless revenue processing. This is achieved through a combination of an automated operator data exchange and scanned document data extraction services for out-of-network operators, making all your revenue available within a few days instead of weeks or even longer. This completely replaces manual entry and check detail processing, eliminating human errors.

There’s tremendous payoff for hunting down and eliminating underpayments. And just think what higher value tasks accounting staff can be redirected to!

Spotting missing wells

Building a list of well names and API numbers to spot missing wells is a simple solution that would normally require hours of painstaking work. But increasing M&A activity results in well names changing several times within a few years, which can make it difficult to know when a new well goes in on your property. Enverus’ cloud-based mineral management software makes this a fast, simple process. This technology also empowers users with email alerts and cloud-based maps to monitor acreage by exception, track rig movement and see when frac crews show up for a completion to identify wells they should be in pay on.

Auditing improper deductions

Depending on the type of interest you own and the terms of a lease, you might be exempt from paying some post-production costs, but the operator charges you anyway through revenue deductions or even adjusting realized prices. To prevent taking a hit on your margins or even a negative royalty, users of cloud-based mineral management solutions can run a no-cost lease audit to spot improper deductions using a pre-built report. Simple!

Finding incorrect ownership decimals

Don’t assume your interest decimals are correct! Mineral interest is tracked to the eighth decimal place, so even a small miscalculation, dropped decimal place or rounding error can impact your bottom line or result in you cutting a check to the operator from an overpayment. Enverus’ mineral management technology helps you find decimal issues by digitally managing land information in a central location so you can stay organized and take action to correct and recover missing revenue. No more filing cabinets!

Identifying underreported volumes

Oil and gas operating companies are driven by two monthly production reporting cycles. The complexities of accounting for sales and paying interest owners, plus state regulatory reporting, doesn’t always produce the same financial statements and underpayments are often missed.

By bringing production verification tools, check stub details and public data sets together, mineral management and business automation solutions equip non-ops to find the underreported volumes that they are owed on faster than ever.

Payout and interest conversion

Preventing this type of underpayment is especially tough because payout on a new well can take years with multiple factors determining the timing. Missing a payout conversion can have huge implications, especially if there is an unleased interest in a drill tract that is not subject to forced pooling.

Enverus’ mineral management technology helps you avoid interest conversion underpayments by ensuring land records are effectively managed, allowing for easy data mining of agreements involving payout provisions. Then you can match those agreements with relevant wells and reconcile payout status and revenue to address any issues.

Final thoughts

The digital oilfield presents a widening technology capability chasm. Like operating companies, non-ops are just as hungry for technology that enables them to focus on A&D decisions, audits and deal analysis, instead of being bogged down in revenue processing. Enverus has leveled the playing field. MineralSoft and EnergyLink have become the gold standard for non-ops to manage their business, a powerful combo that empowers them to automate revenue delivery and manage portfolios at any scale. Combined with Enverus data sets (wells, mineral appraisals, units, activity analytics, placed wells), Enverus helps you manage the entire mineral asset lifecycle from pre-acquisition due diligence through maximizing deal value for divestitures. We have more than 1 million properties under management accounting for 85% of North American royalty revenue and 350,000 wells (nearly half of total well count).

To get more details on solutions to help you manage your mineral assets, stay in pay and maximize revenue, fill out the form below to talk to an expert.

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Life at Enverus

Automate internal price management controls

Implement price compliance workflows

Adopt strategic contracting like Hess

Price management software made for oil and gas

“Sound and thoroughly enforced” risk management systems are paramount

Trade validations, audit trails, and forward curve management

Automated forward curve management helps risk managers grow the bottom line

Key facets of Texas Energy Insurance Program

Potential impact of TEIP on power markets

Other market changes under discussion

The Texas energy market’s future

OPEC+ keeps oil production targets unchanged amid uncertainty over Chinese demand and Russian exports (Feb. 2, 2023)

NYMEX gas prices hit new low of $2.56/MMBtu amid mild winter weather and high storage projections (Feb. 2, 2023)

ExxonMobil’s offtake agreements push Saguaro Energia’s LNG project toward FID, eyes on second phase deals (Feb. 8, 2023)

New York’s 70×30 mandate fails to account for economic impact of clean power transition, cost could increase by 5.3% (Feb. 8, 2023)

Russian crude oil loading programs plummet in February, exports to decline by 1-1.5 MMbbl/d by end of Q1 amid sanctions impact and shadow fleet operations (Feb. 9, 2023)

Entropy’s Glacier CCS project outperforms incumbent technology with 40% lower costs, boosts partnership with Brookfield Renewables (Feb. 10, 2023)

VTLE’s purchase of Driftwood Energy’s Assets in Southern Midland Basin a step in right direction for inventory concerns (Feb. 15, 2023)

Oil and gas operators brace for decline in capital efficiency in 2023 due to OFS cost inflation (Feb. 16, 2023)

ARX achieves increased well performance through wider spacing at Kakwa asset (Feb. 16, 2023)

Brazil’s pre-salt offshore plans offer major growth for NOCAR supply, but policy and regulation risks could delay progress (Feb. 21, 2023)

Investors shift focus to capital efficiency and longevity amid twilight of North American shale (Feb. 27, 2023)

Make better business decisions with EIR’s energy expertise

Key themes revealed:

Industry experts are concerned about instability and grid saturation

Energy storage keeps gaining attention

U.S. and China are perceived as top growth potential regions

The key to success: Diversification

RatedPower: A deep dive into the data

Concerns over remaining inventory

A scramble for good rock

Identifying remaining well locations

De-risking subsurface assets

Forecasting production

Tuning the development model

How can Enverus help?

Current challenges in oil and gas procurement

Introducing streamlined, efficient ordering with OpenOrder

How OpenOrder creates time savings for every group involved in the procure-to-pay process

OpenOrder process flows for oil and gas order management

Success in the field: How Grayson Mill Energy leverages Enverus procurement automation software to optimize operations

With OpenOrder, we have all the information, and it all matches. —Mary Atkinson, Supply Chain Director, Grayson Mill Energy

Enhancing the oil and gas procurement experience

Regain your sanity with oil and gas procurement and order management

Introducing Enverus Learning and Development

Enverus Learning and Development options

Why professional development matters

PRISM adoption post-certification by the numbers

More about Learning and Development options

German gas demand falls in 4Q22: No Russian imports anticipated (Jan. 10, 2023)

Strong outlook for oil market in 2023 (Jan. 11, 2023)

CHK’s Brazos Valley sale: A key strategic goal achieved (Jan. 20, 2023)

Shift in M&A: Grabbing assets before they disappear (Jan. 24, 2023)

North American drilling and completion spending on the rise in 2023 (Jan. 27, 2023)

Global jet fuel demand: A post-pandemic reality check (Jan. 27, 2023)

Make better business decisions with EIR’s energy expertise

Commodity price outlook

Oil forecast

Introducing OpenTicket Mobile

Real-time tracking of work performed

Save time with automatic ticket validation

Creating value for operators and their suppliers

Get started with OpenTicket Mobile

Oil prices to remain high through 2023: A constructive view driven by policy, investment and geopolitical factors (Dec. 22, 2022)

Natural gas prices drop as warmer temperatures return: Will production freeze-offs repeat February 2021 event? (Dec. 19, 2022)

OPEC+ to rollover oil supply targets as group watches impact of EU sanctions, G7 proposals and Chinese demand (Dec. 2, 2022)

OPEC’s denial of oil output hike report highlights finely balanced markets and relevance of Saudi Arabia’s influence (Dec. 2, 2022)

Johan Sverdrup field boosts Norway’s oil production: Equinor’s Phase 2 development on schedule (Dec. 15, 2022)

APA and partner TTE discover non-commercial well in northern Block 58, oil resource below FID threshold in eastern Block 58 (Nov. 28, 2022)

West Coast gas market tightness worsened by cold weather and maintenance: Canadian operators stand to benefit from record-breaking prices (Dec. 15, 2022)

Net Power’s innovative oxy-combustion technology poised to revolutionize low-cost, clean power generation with upcoming IPO? (Dec. 15, 2022)

E3 Lithium secures funding for pioneering Direct Lithium Extraction in Alberta: Commercialization expected in 2026 (Nov. 18, 2022)

CVX’s acquisition of Mercuria Energy’s Beyond6 highlights importance of securing CNG demand for RNG economics in the US (Nov. 22, 2022)

Chevron’s Gorgon CCS project struggles with reservoir pressure challenges, offsets purchase suggests unforeseen reservoir heterogeneities (Nov. 17, 2022)

Staying ahead of the game

1. Investment in technology, data and analytics is key to accelerate the speed of operations and make impactful decisions

Your SPARK 2022 playlist: Technology, data and analytics

2. Operations professionals are looking to digital field tickets for enhanced tracking, validation, approval and compliance

Your SPARK 2022 playlist: Digital field ticketing

With OpenOrder, we have all the information, and it all matches.
—Mary Atkinson, Supply Chain Director, Grayson Mill Energy