Large loads have stopped waiting in line. Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) anticipates by 2030 that more than 25 GW of new industrial demand will be served with behind-the-meter (BTM) generation. We forecast data centers will account for roughly 90% of that growth. Servicing this demand requires over 31 GW of generation capacity.
The gap reflects both overbuild requirements and technology selection. Large-frame gas plants need roughly 1.5x the load they serve because the loss of a single unit removes a significant share of available capacity. Modular gas technologies, including small/medium-frame turbines, fuel cells and reciprocating engines, can achieve similar reliability with only a 1.1x overbuild by distributing capacity across smaller units (Figure 1). Combined with deployment timelines of 18-24 months versus more than 80 months for combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs), these technologies offer a significant advantage.
Lower overbuild requirements are also helping fuel cells become cost competitive. A natural gas solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) serving a 1 GW data center can deliver power at a comparable LCOE to a large-frame CCGT while coming online years sooner. Large-frame CCGTs account for the largest share of BTM technology, but almost all that capacity comes from projects that secured turbine slots before lead times exceeded the current wait of more than five years. With that window closed, we anticipate faster alternatives score nearly 70% of planned gas builds.
This blog offers just a glimpse of the powerful analysis Energy Transition Research delivers on the trending themes. Don’t miss the full picture.
Research Highlights:
- Behind-the-Meter Generation Forecast | Skipping the Queue – We forecast the BTM generation required to serve new U.S. industrial facilities through 2030, analyze the technologies expected to meet that demand and identify the original equipment manufacturers best positioned to benefit.
- The Long and Short of Ut(ilities) – Utility Compass 3Q26 – We screen regulated utilities by comparing the market’s Gordon-implied dividend growth against the load growth we forecast in each service territory. In our view, demand exposure is a good predictor of earnings growth.
- Bloom Energy | Strong Fundamentals, Little Room for Error – BE’s one-year share price gain recently peaked at 1,100% on investor expectations of rapid growth. We assess whether the company’s order backlog and manufacturing capacity can support the revenue implied by its valuation. We also evaluate possible path for the company to lower production costs through 2030.
DID YOU KNOW?
The fuel cells going into data centers started as a Mars mission. K.R. Sridhar’s team built a solid oxide device for NASA to make breathable oxygen from the Martian atmosphere. When the lander was cancelled, they ran the reaction backwards to make electricity and founded Bloom Energy.
Top Three Takeaways:
1: How much behind-the-meter generation will data centers need by 2030?
EIR anticipates more than 25 GW of new industrial demand will be served with behind-the-meter generation by 2030, with data centers accounting for roughly 90% of that growth. Servicing this demand requires over 31 GW of generation capacity, reflecting both overbuild requirements and technology selection.
2: Why do modular gas technologies require less overbuild than large-frame CCGTs?
Large-frame gas plants need roughly 1.5x the load they serve because losing a single unit removes a significant share of available capacity. Modular gas technologies, including small/medium-frame turbines, fuel cells and reciprocating engines, achieve similar reliability with only a 1.1x overbuild by distributing capacity across smaller units, and they deploy in 18-24 months versus more than 80 months for CCGTs.
3: Why is large-frame CCGT share of new gas builds expected to shrink?
Large-frame CCGTs currently account for the largest share of BTM technology, but almost all of that capacity comes from projects that secured turbine slots before lead times exceeded the current wait of more than five years. With that window closed, faster alternatives are expected to capture nearly 70% of planned gas builds going forward.
About Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR)
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macroeconomic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies, and capital providers worldwide. See additional disclosures here.
