CALGARY, Alberta (Sep. 22, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, is releasing its annual North American Inventory report, an analysis of remaining oil and gas drilling inventory that finds U.S. crude oil production is likely to grow, then peak in the early 2030s as low-cost resource becomes more limited, while Canada is positioned to play a growing role in sustaining continental supply.
EIR’s outlook is one of maturation rather than collapse. North American oil production is expected to remain roughly flat over the next decade, with the Permian remaining the anchor of continental drilling activity well into the 2040s. At the same time, the economics of maintaining supply become more challenging, with the marginal cost of U.S. oil supply rising from about $70/bbl WTI today to roughly $90/bbl by 2035, as measured on a PV-50 basis.
That shift increases the importance of Canada. The analysis estimates the U.S. has a 17-year low-cost oil resource life index at current production rates, compared with nearly 53 years in Canada. Canadian oil production is forecast to increase 1.5 MMbbl/d to 7.0 MMbbl/d by 2035, while U.S. oil production declines from 13.7 MMbbl/d in 2026 to 12.7 MMbbl/d.
Canada’s resource depth, however, does not automatically translate into production growth. Realizing that potential will require additional oil and gas pipelines, LNG export capacity, and a substantial rotation of capital toward upstream development. The report notes that several crude oil takeaway projects announced or advanced over the past 12 months represent about 3 MMbbl/d of potential incremental export capacity from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin.
“U.S. shale is aging, not broken. The Permian remains a cornerstone of North American supply, but the combination of tighter low-cost drilling inventory and rising marginal costs means the continent will increasingly need Canada’s deeper resource base. Canada is home to vast resources, but converting that opportunity into supply growth will require capital, infrastructure and the ability to get projects built,” said Dane Gregoris, managing director of Oil and Gas Research at EIR.
Key takeaways:
- EIR expects U.S. crude oil production to peak in the early 2030s before entering a managed decline.
- The marginal cost of U.S. oil supply rises from about $70/bbl WTI today to roughly $90/bbl by 2035 on a PV-50 basis as development moves further down the resource base.
- The U.S. oil resource life index is 17 years at current production rates versus nearly 53 years in Canada using a sub-$50/bbl WTI PV-10 breakeven threshold.
- EIR forecasts Canadian oil production reaching 7.0 MMbbl/d by 2035, up roughly 1.5 MMbbl/d, as U.S. oil production declines from 13.7 MMbbl/d in 2026 to 12.7 MMbbl/d by 2035.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE™.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
