CALGARY, Alberta (Sep. 9, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, is releasing a new analysis that finds planned brownfield expansions and recently announced greenfield pipelines could provide sufficient export capacity to support 2–3 MMbbl/d of Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) oil production growth into the late 2030s.
EIR estimates WCSB oil production will grow by approximately 200 Mbbl/d per year through 2035, with pipeline capacity expected to run ahead of producer needs for most of the decade. Expanded takeaway is therefore expected to reduce the risk of the severe pipeline congestion and apportionment-driven discounts that have periodically affected Western Canadian crude markets.
The research points to roughly 1.0 MMbbl/d of firm takeaway from a combination of an existing pipeline optimization project, system optimizations and the Prairie Connector-Bridger project. EIR expects WCS differentials to remain around $12–$15/bbl below WTI, roughly reflecting the cost of moving a barrel to the Gulf Coast. The report also notes that the experience following a major recent Canadian pipeline expansion demonstrated how spare capacity can materially narrow the differential.
Among proposed new pipelines, Prairie Connector-Bridger screens as the greenfield project most likely to proceed in EIR’s assessment because it clears three critical development gates identified by the research: a committed proponent, a viable route and commercial support. The project has 465 Mbbl/d of 20-year shipper commitments, while the proposed West Coast Oil Pipeline ranks second and is the largest proposed project, with capacity of more than 1 MMbbl/d.
With pipeline constraints easing, EIR says the next limits on Canadian oil growth are increasingly likely to come from the upstream side. The research forecasts approximately 1.3 MMbbl/d of oil sands production growth through 2035 but identifies producer capital discipline and diluent availability as emerging constraints. EIR expects incremental condensate demand to rise by about 500 Mbbl/d by the mid-2030s, potentially creating another infrastructure requirement as oil sands production expands.
“The outlook for Canadian oil production is changing as pipeline capacity moves ahead of producer needs for much of the coming decade. That reduces the risk that transportation constraints will once again become the primary brake on Western Canadian growth, although capital allocation and diluent availability could increasingly determine how much of that available capacity is ultimately filled,” said Kyle Bertamini principal analyst at EIR.
Key takeaways:
- Planned pipeline expansions and new greenfield projects could provide sufficient egress to support 2–3 MMbbl/d of WCSB production growth into the late 2030s.
- EIR expects WCSB oil production to grow by approximately 200 Mbbl/d annually through 2035.
- WCS differentials are expected to remain around $12–$15/bbl below WTI, reducing the risk of recurring extreme discounts tied to constrained pipeline capacity.
- Prairie Connector-Bridger is assessed as the most likely greenfield pipeline project to proceed, supported by a secure route and 465 Mbbl/d of 20-year shipper commitments.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE®.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
