CALGARY, Alberta (July 22, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, has released a new report that separates underlying electricity demand from structural drivers such as data centers, electric vehicles, and electrification.
EIR’s model defines organic load as the baseline trajectory of electricity consumption shaped by weather, population, economic activity and energy efficiency. By removing structural drivers from historical load before estimating each zone’s underlying trend, the model is designed to prevent rapidly developing sources of demand from overstating the organic baseline. Those structural drivers are forecast independently and layered back into EIR’s total load outlook.
The 80-zone analysis forecasts organic load rising from 490 GW in 2025 to 521 GW by 2036 before efficiency gains, representing a 0.55% compound annual growth rate. After efficiency is included, EIR expects approximately 10 GW of net organic load growth by 2036, or a 0.2% compound annual growth rate. The report uses PJM DOM as an example of how separating data center demand from historical load can produce a clearer view of the zone’s underlying trajectory.
“Separating organic demand from data centers, electric vehicles and other structural drivers gives market participants a clearer baseline for evaluating electricity growth. This approach helps distinguish demand associated with population, economic activity and weather from newer sources of load that may develop at different rates and in different regions,” said Thomas Mulvihill, report author and associate at EIR.
Key takeaways:
- EIR’s 80-zone model isolates organic load from data centers, electric vehicles, and electrification.
- Each zone’s organic forecast is based on historical relationships among hourly load, weather, population and GDP, with energy efficiency modeled as an offset.
- Organic load is forecast to increase from 490 GW in 2025 to 521 GW by 2036 before efficiency gains.
- After efficiency is included, EIR expects approximately 10 GW of net organic load growth by 2036, equivalent to a 0.2% compound annual growth rate.
- The report’s PJM DOM example shows how removing data center growth from historical load can prevent a structural driver from inflating the organic baseline.
FIGURE 1 | Zone-level Organic Growth, 2026-36
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
