CALGARY, Alberta (July 21, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, has released a new report examining how hyperscaler capital spending could translate into new data center capacity and greater use of dedicated natural gas generation.
EIR forecasts approximately 62 GW of new Lower 48 data center capacity additions through 2030, supported by roughly $5 trillion in cumulative hyperscaler capital expenditures from 2026 through 2030. The buildout is expected to be concentrated in PJM, ERCOT, MISO and WECC, which together account for more than 80% of forecast capacity additions through 2030.
Grid interconnection congestion and long development timelines are also pushing a growing share of capacity toward behind-the-meter generation. EIR estimates that behind-the-meter projects will account for roughly 40% of installed capacity and imply approximately 1.3 Bcf/d of incremental natural gas demand by 2030, with about half concentrated in ERCOT and PJM.
Near-term project visibility remains comparatively strong, with approximately 96% of forecast 2028 additions tied to projects under construction or in late-stage development. That share falls to 26% by 2030, reflecting greater uncertainty around unannounced, uncontracted and outer-year projects.
“Data center growth is increasingly reliant on behind-the-meter infrastructure. Our forecast indicates that grid interconnection constraints will shape not only where capacity is built, but also how it is powered, with behind-the-meter natural gas generation emerging as a primary path for projects that cannot wait for traditional grid access,” said Carson Kearl, report author and associate at EIR.
Key takeaways:
- EIR estimates approximately 62 GW of new Lower 48 data center capacity additions through 2030.
- PJM, ERCOT, MISO and WECC are expected to absorb more than 80% of new capacity through 2030.
- Behind-the-meter projects are forecast to account for roughly 40% of installed capacity.
- EIR forecasts approximately 1.3 Bcf/d of incremental natural gas demand from behind-the-meter projects by 2030.
- High-confidence project coverage declines from approximately 96% of forecast additions in 2028 to 26% in 2030.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
