CALGARY, Alberta (June 23, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has released its latest electric vehicle (EV) forecast that includes findings that recent federal policy changes and slowing consumer adoption have significantly delayed the pace of adoption across the United States.
The report revises EIR’s forecast for U.S. EV fleet penetration in 2035 to 8.1%, down from a prior estimate of 20%, while lowering projected 2030 penetration to 4.5% from 12%. The revision pushes the anticipated displacement of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles back by approximately three years, with the market transition now expected to accelerate between 2028 and 2033.
The report attributes much of the slowdown to the expiration of the federal $7,500 new EV tax credit and $4,000 used EV tax credit in September 2025, which disproportionately affected mass-market consumers and widened adoption differences between states with supportive EV policies and those without.
“Our long-term view on the U.S. EV transition remains positive, but we expect slower growth through the end of the decade,” said Thomas Mulvihill, report author and associate at EIR. “The elimination of federal tax credits, combined with ongoing affordability and infrastructure challenges, has materially altered the EV adoption curve. Utilities, grid operators and fuel market participants now have additional time to recalibrate planning assumptions.”
“Our analysis suggests the market is experiencing a temporary cooling period rather than a reversal,” Mulvihill added. “The combination of declining used EV prices, broader model availability and continued charging network improvements should support long-term growth, even as near-term adoption slows.”
According to the report, Colorado and California remain the nation’s EV leaders, while Florida stands out as a notable exception among non-mandate states due to its large vehicle population, household income profile and strong EV adoption in major metropolitan areas.
Key takeaways:
- EV adoption forecast significantly reduced: EIR now projects 8.1% EV fleet penetration by 2035, compared with 20% in its previous outlook.
- Regional adoption gap widens: States with zero-emission vehicle mandates and state-level incentives including California, Colorado, Washington and New Jersey continue to lead adoption, while much of the Southeast, Midwest and Mountain West lag behind.
- Grid load growth delayed: Annual EV charging demand is expected to reach approximately 17 TWh by 2030 and 47 TWh by 2035, reducing near-term pressure on utilities and transmission planners.
- Smart charging emerges as a critical factor: By 2035, EIR expects roughly 90% of EV charging to be price-responsive, helping flatten load profiles and improve grid integration.
- Gasoline demand remains resilient: The slower adoption trajectory supports a larger ICE vehicle fleet through the next decade, providing a more constructive outlook for gasoline demand and refinery utilization than previously anticipated.
FIGURE 3 | EV vs. ICE Share of Total Fleet
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE™.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
