Energy Transition

Forecasting long-term power demand | Where do we go from here?

byScott Wilmot

Historical factors and trends are becoming less descriptive of future power demand. The growing pace of electrification and electric vehicle (EV) adoption are changing the power demand dynamics. At the same time, more customers are installing behind-the-meter (BTM) generation to take control of their energy destiny, which lowers net demand for the grid. One must also consider the long-term impact of climate change, where higher levels of weather variability are changing the energy demand from heating and cooling systems. Things have gotten a lot more complicated.

How can one build a reliable power demand forecast? Enverus Intelligence® | Research (EIR) recently published a long-term demand forecast for the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). They built an hourly demand outlook from the ground up based on key factors like EV adoption, electrification, BTM generation, climate change and changing tariffs. Figure 1 summarizes these load drivers and categorizes them based on their impact on total demand and daily load profile. BTM solar and EV adoption, driven by new building codes and state mandates on new vehicle sales, have the biggest impact on future demand in California and are vastly different than historical trends. This type of bottom-up analysis is critical when forming views on future demand in power markets. Because of these future load drivers, EIR expects to not only see an increase in demand of 10% by 2050, but also a big change in the shape of the intraday and seasonal load profiles.

Highlights from Energy Transition Research

  1. CAISO load forecast – EVs pave way for growth – This report explores the key drivers behind green hydrogen production costs and demonstrates how inputs impact project returns when paired with U.S. incentives.
  2. CCUS midstream – Who’s making the connection in southern Louisiana? – This report examines which midstream operators are most exposed to low-breakeven emissions and high-capacity CO2 storage in southern Louisiana, which operators have announced partnerships in CCUS projects and which are strategically located near CCS projects without disclosed midstream partners.
  3. The economic reality of long-duration energy storage – A bird without wings? – In this report we analyze the economics of long-duration energy storage under current power market designs.

Energy is changing. Connect weekly with the ideas that are leading the way.

About Enverus Intelligence®| Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macro-economic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies, and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser.  Click here to learn more.

Picture of Scott Wilmot

Scott Wilmot

Scott Wilmot is a finance professional with more than 10 years of experience in the global energy infrastructure sector. In various corporate development and business development roles, he has been involved with regulated utility, renewable power and thermal generation assets.

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