CALGARY, Alberta (July 14, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, is releasing a new analysis on how Asian LNG markets are responding to the loss of Qatari supply, including the role of replacement cargoes, fuel switching and demand rationing.
The report finds that Asia has primarily managed the LNG disruption by sourcing alternative cargoes rather than through widespread demand destruction. EIR estimates roughly 5-6 Bcf/d of the shortfall was replaced by higher-cost LNG sources, while about 2-3 Bcf/d came from demand rationing and fuel switching, making the adjustment largely price-driven for major buyers.
According to EIR, demand rationing has been concentrated among more price-sensitive importers, while larger Northeast Asian buyers continued to consume gas and pay higher prices for replacement cargoes. The report notes that weather-adjusted generation across major buyers showed no statistically significant weakness, while exposed buyers such as Bangladesh showed clear shortfalls of about 7%-11% below weather-adjusted demand.
EIR also sees bullish risk into 3Q26, when cooling demand peaks and inventories are thinner. The report’s 2026 price outlook is $18/MMBtu for JKM and $16/MMBtu for TTF, above forward strips of roughly $16/MMBtu and $14/MMBtu, respectively.
“Asia’s response to the loss of Qatari LNG has been less about broad demand collapse and more about who can afford to keep buying replacement supply. The large buyers have absorbed the shock through price so far, which means the market’s real test comes as cooling demand rises and supply constraints persist into the third quarter,” said Josephine Mills, senior analyst at EIR.
Key takeaways:
- Asia replaced roughly 5-6 Bcf/d of lost Qatari LNG through alternative, higher-cost LNG sources, while demand rationing and fuel switching accounted for about 2-3 Bcf/d.
- EIR estimates the March 4 effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed about 10 Bcf/d of Qatari LNG from global balances, while damage at Ras Laffan affected about 2 Bcf/d of capacity.
- Major Asian buyers largely continued consuming gas, while demand rationing appeared more clearly among price-sensitive importers.
- Bangladesh showed weather-adjusted output shortfalls of about 11% in March and 7% in April, while major buyers’ deviations remained within ordinary model noise.
- EIR’s 2026 outlook is $18/MMBtu for JKM and $16/MMBtu for TTF, above forward strips of approximately $16/MMBtu and $14/MMBtu.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
