CALGARY, Alberta (Oct. 29, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, has released its forecast for electric vehicle (EV) charging load growth at the Lower 48 zonal level and its anticipated impact to the electric grid system.
“EIR expects the number of EVs to exceed 40 million (20%) by 2035 and 80 million (40%) by 2040. We do not expect a growing U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet given a declining share of licensed young drivers, the prevalence of ridesharing, vehicle use platforms and the emergence of autonomous vehicle programs such as Robotaxi, Waymo and Cruze,” said Carson Kearl, analyst at EIR.
“Battery costs have fallen rapidly, with 2024 cell costs dipping below $100/kWh. We predict from [2025] forward EVs will be more affordable than their traditional, internal combustible engine counterparts,” Kearl said.
Key takeaways from the report:
- EIR’s zonal EV load outlook forecasts EVs making up 8% of light-duty vehicles on the road by 2030 and 20% by 2035.
- Peak daily load from EVs predicted to go from 0.6 GW in 2024 to 18 GW in 2035 and ~65 GW by 2050. The largest impacts are expected in the Southeast (SE), PJM and CAISO, where peak EV charging loads are predicted to be 11.6, 12.6 and 8.7 GW, respectively, by [2050].
- Annual EV load estimated to increase from 13.3 TW in 2024 to ~105 TWh by 2030 and ~420 TWh by 2050, comprising 0, 2% and 7% of the total anticipated U.S. load, respectively.
- EVs and residential power systems are likely to be large contributors to volatility in power demand. EIR’s predictive model includes a tendency toward smart charging through time, which could materially influence both the size and shape of future zonal load profiles. Battery developers should realize higher spreads in dense EV regions.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Intelligence® Research.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996
