Operators

Protected: P10, P50, P90 Reserves

byEnverus
October 27, 2025

Protected: P10, P50, P90 Reserves

P10, P50,and P90 are probabilistic reserve categories used to express the confidence levels in estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of oil and gas resources. P90 (Proven): 90% confidence the actual reserves will equal or exceed this amount. P50 (Probable): 50% confidence the reserves will meet or exceed this estimate. P10 (Possible): 10% confidence the reserves will meet or exceed this amount. These categories help quantify uncertainty and guide investment decisions.
Enverus Press Release - How much production growth can North America deliver over the next decade?

Frequently Asked Questions

How are P10, P50, and P90 reserves calculated?

These reserves are calculated using statistical methods and simulation models that incorporate historical production data, reservoir characteristics and recovery technologies. Monte Carlo simulations are commonly used to generate probabilistic distributions of recoverable volumes.

What technologies support directional drilling?

Key technologies include rotary steerable systems (RSS), mud motors, and measurement-while-drilling (MWD) tools. These systems provide real-time data and control, allowing precise navigation through complex geological formations. On-site directional drilling engineers and geologists use these tools to make real-time decisions in guiding the drilling decisions to ensure safety and efficiency in drilling.

 

Why are probabilistic reserves important in oil and gas finance?

Reserve categories influence development strategies, budgeting and risk management. Projects with high P90 reserves may be prioritized for their reliability, while P10 reserves might be considered speculative and require further appraisal before investment.

 

What factors can shift reserves between categories?

Technological advancements, improved reservoir data and changes in commodity prices can shift reserves between categories. For example, enhanced recovery techniques or higher oil prices may upgrade P50 reserves to P90, increasing confidence in economic viability.

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