News Release

First Take | Russian Invasion of Ukraine

byEnverus

Calgary, Alberta (February 24, 2022) — Enverus Intelligence Research, a part of Enverus, the leading global energy data analytics and SaaS technology company, has released a new report that examines the impacts Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have on oil prices, the effectiveness of Western sanctions and potential political fallout.

“While we see energy sanctions as a big leap for Russia-dependent euro economies, Brent prices exceeding $100/bbl imply the loss of ~1.5 MMbbl/d, which is tighter relative to our base model,” said Ian Nieboer, report author and managing director of Enverus’ Global (International) Energy Analytics business. “This amounts to about 20% of Russian crude and refined product exports. Whether that is accurate will depend upon the coordination of Western sanctions, battlefield developments and whether President Vladimir Putin decides to wield the energy weapon himself.”

“Benchmark oil prices have incorporated a meaningful geopolitical risk premium — perhaps $10-$15 — so far this year. The combination of slow-to-arrive, but still expected, U.S. supply growth, shrinking OPEC spare capacity, and strong demand amid increasing geopolitical tensions focused on — but not exclusive to — Russia and Ukraine have driven prompt Brent toward $100. The arrival of hot conflict last night is pushing crude prices past that mark,” Nieboer said.

Key takeaways from the report:

  • Brent prices exceeding $100/bbl imply the loss of ~1.5 MMbbl/d tighter relative to our base model. This amounts to ~20% of Russian crude and refined product exports.
  • The combination of slow-to-arrive (but still expected) U.S. supply growth, shrinking OPEC spare capacity and strong demand amid increasing geopolitical tensions focused on (but not exclusive to) Russia and Ukraine have driven prompt Brent toward $100/bbl.

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus Intelligence Research’s expert analysts.

About Enverus
Enverus is the leading energy SaaS company delivering highly-technical insights and predictive/prescriptive analytics that empower customers to make decisions that increase profit. Enverus’ innovative technologies drive production and investment strategies, enable best practices for energy and commodity trading and risk management, and reduce costs through automated processes across critical business functions. Enverus is a strategic partner to more than 6,000 customers in 50 countries. Learn more at Enverus.com.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters.

Picture of Enverus

Enverus

Energy’s most trusted SaaS platform — creating intelligent connections that uncover insights and opportunities to deliver extraordinary outcomes.

Related News

Blackstone announces agreement to acquire Enverus
News Release
ByEnverus

Blackstone (NYSE: BX) announced today that private equity funds affiliated with Blackstone (“Blackstone”) have entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Enverus, a premier data analytics energy intelligence platform, from Hellman & Friedman and Genstar Capital.

Making enhanced oil recovery great again: OBBA 45Q tax credit shift cuts E&P costs by 40%
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) has released a report accessing how the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) impacts the the equalization of 45Q tax credits, especially as it enhances the economics of carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO₂-EOR.)

Enverus Intelligence Research is releasing its summary of 2Q2025 upstream M&A activity and outlook for the rest of the year.
News Release
ByEnverus

Calgary, Alberta (July 23, 2025) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, is releasing its summary of 2Q2025 upstream M&A activity and outlook for the...

How the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could change clean energy tax credit economics
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) has released a new report on how changes to clean energy tax credits under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could reshape project economics and create new opportunities for revenue optimization.

Sunburned & winded: Only 30% of U.S. solar and 57% wind projects expected to survive under one, Big, Beautiful Bill Act
News Release
ByEnverus

CALGARY, Alberta (July 15, 2025) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages Generative AI across its solutions, has released a new report accessing the impact of the One Big Beautiful...

2025 Mid-Year Minerals Market Outlook What’s moving the market next?
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus invites journalists and industry professionals to attend its “2025 Mid-Year Minerals Market Outlook” webinar at 1:00 p.m. CT on July 15, 2025.

Bearish oil thesis yet to play out
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence® Research has released its latest Fundamental Edge report.

persona-Operators-with-non-operating-assets-.jpg
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus is releasing its annual list of the most prolific 100 private oil and gas producers in the U.S. based on gross operated production, well count and rig movements across last year.

GettyImages-1148355005
Analyst Takes Blog Topics
ByAl Salazar, Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) Contributor

In reaction to news of U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Al Salazar, director at Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), released this statement explaining the significance on oil prices:

Find Out How Enverus Can Help Your Business

Subscribe to the Energy Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Get Started

Sign up for our Blog

Register Today

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert