Trading & Risk

Preparing For the Perfect Storm: Extreme Oil Price Volatility Is Coming

byEnverus

Calgary, Alberta (February 28, 2022) — Enverus Intelligence Research, a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading global energy data analytics and SaaS technology company, has released its latest PetroLogic report, The Perfect Storm, which assesses the impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, OPEC’s failure to achieve output goals and slower-than-expected supply additions in the U.S. is having on its near-term oil outlook.

“Whether reduced by Western sanctions, by Russian limits or by the impacts of the fighting itself, we expect extreme price volatility in Brent,” said Bill Farren-Price, lead report author and director of Enverus Intelligence Research. “Ultimately, higher oil prices and weaker economic growth are not consistent with resurgent oil demand and there is a significant risk that oil markets will be considerably tighter in the coming months if Western sanctions are escalated to focus on Russian energy exports.”

Key takeaways from the report:

  • We no longer expect aggressive stock builds in 1Q22, but do expect modest builds throughout the year as higher prices weigh on demand and additional supply becomes available which will erode Brent prices to mid to low 80s by the end of the year.
  • We expect extreme volatility in Brent over the coming months but ultimately believe prices over $100/bbl coupled with weaker economic growth is not supportive of resurgent oil demand.

Graph showing Brent Prices vs Inventories

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus Intelligence Research’s expert analysts.

About Enverus
Enverus is the leading energy SaaS company delivering highly-technical insights and predictive/prescriptive analytics that empower customers to make decisions that increase profit. Enverus’ innovative technologies drive production and investment strategies, enable best practices for energy and commodity trading and risk management, and reduce costs through automated processes across critical business functions. Enverus is a strategic partner to more than 6,000 customers in 50 countries. Learn more at Enverus.com.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters.

Picture of Enverus

Enverus

Energy’s most trusted SaaS platform — creating intelligent connections that uncover insights and opportunities to deliver extraordinary outcomes.

Related News

War Damage Outlasts Forward Market Expectations
Newsroom
Trading & Risk
ByJon Haubert

Enverus Intelligence® Research says war-damaged refining capacity could recover more slowly than forward markets imply, keeping product margins elevated through 2027.

You can’t print barrels EIR holds $100 Brent forecast
Newsroom
Trading & Risk
ByJon Haubert

Enverus Intelligence® Research maintains its $100/bbl Brent forecast through 2027 despite weaker oil demand, citing constrained supply, low inventories and limited refining capacity.

Brent holds at $100 as global supply risks persist
Newsroom
Financial Services, Trading & Risk
ByJon Haubert

Enverus Intelligence® Research examines the 2Q26 slowdown in U.S. upstream M&A and the factors that could drive stronger deal activity later in 2026.

Asia pays up after Qatari LNG loss
Newsroom
Trading & Risk
ByJon Haubert

EIR analysis finds Asian LNG buyers have mostly absorbed lost Qatari supply through higher-cost replacement cargoes, with demand rationing concentrated among more price-sensitive importers.

U.S. natural gas prices face power demand drag
Newsroom
Trading & Risk
ByJon Haubert

Enverus Intelligence Research says U.S. natural gas prices face pressure as power demand underperforms, while LNG exports remain the key offset to resilient supply.

What’s next for the Strait of Hormuz?
Newsroom
Trading & Risk
ByJon Haubert

Enverus Intelligence® Research’s latest Strait of Hormuz outlook highlights a stocks-driven “higher for longer” setup, modeling OECD crude and product inventories falling from 2.82 Bbbl (YE25) to a 2.36 Bbbl trough in Q4 2026. The report also flags a potential...

You can’t print barrels EIR holds $100 Brent forecast
Newsroom
Trading & Risk
ByJon Haubert

Enverus’ latest Fundamental Edge report, “Let’s Make a Deal | Brent Upgrade, Henry Downgrade,” raises its 2H26 Brent forecast to $110/bbl on a late-June deal and gradual Strait of Hormuz reopening while maintaining a capped summer Henry Hub outlook and...

Qatari LNG outage shifts global gas market into structural deficit
Newsroom
Trading & Risk
ByJon Haubert

Qatari LNG supply disruptions could shift global gas markets into a structural deficit through 2030, with elevated TTF and JKM pricing, intensified Europe-Asia LNG competition and increased strategic value for Pacific-facing export projects, according to Enverus Intelligence® Research.

EIR maintains higher for longer oil outlook as markets catch up
Newsroom
Trading & Risk
ByJon Haubert

Enverus Intelligence® Research maintains its higher-for-longer oil outlook, holding its $95/bbl Brent forecast for 2026 and $100/bbl for 2027 as markets begin to align with its earlier call. The latest Fundamental Edge report highlights ongoing geopolitical risk and supply disruption...

Find Out How Enverus Can Help Your Business
Subscribe to the Energy Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Get Started

Sign up for our Blog

Ready to Subscribe?

Ready to Get Started?