CALGARY, Alberta (May 12, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has released its latest Fundamental Edge report, reaffirming its higher-for-longer oil price outlook first established in mid-March as market consensus moves closer to its projections.
EIR has maintained its average Brent forecast of $95/bbl for the rest of 2026 and $100/bbl for all of 2027, even as market pricing and peer forecasts have moved toward that view. The outlook is driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz impacting oil flows and subsequent low OECD crude and product stock levels.
“Since March 11, our view has been that oil prices would remain higher for longer, and we have not deviated from that position as events have unfolded. However, our three-month base case closure presumption is about to come due, and the lack of resolution introduces additional uncertainty around the path forward. For every additional month the Strait remains closed, we would expect $10–$15/bbl to be added to our price outlook,” said Al Salazar, director of research at EIR.
Key takeaways
- EIR has maintained its average Brent forecast of $95/bbl for the rest of 2026 and $100/bbl for 2027 since March 11.
- Market pricing and peer revisions are now moving closer to EIR’s earlier outlook.
- The base case assumes a three-month Strait of Hormuz closure.
- Each additional month of disruption adds approximately $10–$15/bbl to the outlook.
- Structural factors, including constrained spare capacity and muted U.S. supply response, support a sustained geopolitical risk premium.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
