CALGARY, Alberta (Sept. 18, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, has released an analysis that looks at the maximum potential for incremental natural gas-fired generation from now until 2035, given load growth projections from data centers and other large loads in the U.S. The report discloses which gas hubs will see outsized growth opportunities and which gas producers are exposed.
“We estimate a maximum increase in U.S. gas burn of 12.9 Bcf/d, assuming existing gas generation capacity, including peakers, meets all incremental power demand to 2035,” said Morgan Kwan, director of energy transition at EIR.
“Despite a seemingly robust topline number, the opportunity for increased gas demand is very location-specific and does not take into account renewable generation buildout; some gas hub regions lack existing available gas generation capacity to begin with, and some regions are likely to see a decrease in power demand overall.
“The Southeast U.S., including Texas, Florida and Virginia, as well as southern California, will see the most potential for increased gas-fired power generation. Despite Washington and Central U.S. projected load growth upward of 2 gigawatts by 2035, gas generation facilities in these regions do not have available capacity today to help meet this load expansion.”
Key takeaways from the report:
- EIR forecasts a maximum increase in U.S. gas burn of under 13 Bcf/d, assuming existing gas generation capacity (including peakers) meets all incremental power demand from our tracking of large loads and our expectations of load growth to 2035.
- EIR finds Florida Gas Zone 3, Transco Zone 5, Henry Hub, Agua Dulce, SoCal CG and Columbia Gas hubs could each see about 0.9 bcf/d or more of incremental demand for gas generation. Transco Zone 5, Agua Dulce, Houston Ship Channel and Cheyenne are all capable of growing over 50% in gas equivalent gas burn volume.
- Permian producers will benefit from growth in Agua Dulce, while Marcellus and Utica gas will be aided by the expansion of the Columbia Gas hub. Producers with firm transport on Transco and MVP will be able to access the growing Transco Zone 5 gas hub.
- Appalachian producers AR, EQT and CTRA are best positioned to benefit from the Southeast market that encompasses the Transco Zone 5 gas hub, which has the potential for substantial gas generation expansion.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Intelligence® Research and Enverus FOUNDATIONS®.
You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.
About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
