CALGARY, Alberta (May 19, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has released its latest report, Electrification Load Forecast: The L48 Goes Electric, highlighting the growing role of electrification in shaping U.S. power demand.
Electrification is expected to add approximately 24 GW of incremental load by 2035 and about 78 GW by 2050 across the Lower 48, driven by the transition from fuel-based technologies to electric alternatives in industrial processes and space heating. Electrification will account for roughly 4.1% of total U.S. load by 2035, signaling a meaningful but regionally uneven shift in demand.
Growth is highly concentrated, with PJM, MISO and NYISO accounting for 69% of incremental load by 2035, reflecting their combination of gas-reliant building stock, industrial demand and large-scale heating transitions. At the same time, some regions are expected to see flat or declining load as efficiency gains from technologies such as heat pumps offset new demand.
“Electrification is emerging as a measurable and regionally concentrated driver of U.S. load growth, with industrial demand and heating transitions leading the increase. At the same time, efficiency gains and regional differences in heating technology mean the impact on load is not uniform and will reshape grid dynamics, including increased winter sensitivity and market volatility,” said Kevin Kang, report author and senior analyst at Enverus Intelligence® Research.
Industrial electrification represents the largest share of incremental demand, contributing 11.4 GW, or 47% of total load growth by 2035. Commercial and residential sectors follow, adding 6.8 GW (29%) and 5.7 GW (24%), respectively, as building heating systems shift toward electric alternatives.
Regional dynamics are shaped by differences in existing heating infrastructure. Areas that rely heavily on gas or oil heating are expected to see increased electricity demand as electrification accelerates, while regions with existing electric resistance heating may experience net load reductions as more efficient heat pumps reduce overall consumption.
Policy is also a key driver. State-level electrification mandates, particularly in colder regions, are expected to drive significant relative load increases, including projected growth of 27% in ISO New England and 21% in New York ISO by 2035. These shifts are likely to increase winter weather sensitivity and contribute to greater market volatility.
Key takeaways:
- Electrification adds ~24 GW of incremental U.S. load by 2035 and ~78 GW by 2050
- PJM, MISO and NYISO account for ~69% of 2035 load growth
- Industrial sector leads with 11.4 GW (47%), followed by commercial (6.8 GW) and residential (5.7 GW)
- Electrification represents ~4.1% of total Lower 48 load by 2035
- Regional dynamics vary, with some areas seeing net load declines due to efficiency gains (e.g., heat pump adoption reducing electricity use)
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE™.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
