CALGARY, Alberta (July 16, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS and generative AI company, has released its long-term load forecast model that considers historical drivers of power demand across the Lower 48 U.S. and models variables it believes will impact future load. This includes data centers, electric vehicles (EVs), residential solar and storage, cryptocurrency mines, green hydrogen, carbon capture and storage and electrification trends. The report analyzes the effects these new exponential load drivers will have on our power demand forecasts from 2024-2050 and may be of particular interest to power developers, investment funds, private equity firms and banks.
“We expect daily evening peak to get pushed back by up to five hours during the day by 2038 in regions with the highest growth in behind-the-meter (BTM) solar and storage,” said Riley Prescott, analyst at EIR.
“We believe that data center load estimates across the U.S. are overstated,” Prescott said. “Our model contains more realistic projections for each significant load segment using an unbiased and consistent methodology across the entire U.S.”
“We offer a differentiated and realistic view on load growth in an environment where independent system operators (ISOs) are publishing drastically different forecasts year to year that may contain biases.”
Key takeaways from the report:
- U.S. total load is forecast to grow 42% by 2050 from today because of population growth, increased data center demand and EV adoption, offset partially by BTM residential solar and storage growth.
- ERCOT base load stands out, reflecting Texas’ strong population growth and industrial base. Nevertheless, PJM and the Southeast regions will continue to be the highest base load areas with the highest intraday variability.
- SE, PJM, ERCOT and WEST are projected to experience the highest levels of load growth extending to 2050.
- Additionally, the SE, WEST and CAISO regions exhibit the highest variability when considering load modifiers, which encompass both adders and offsets.
- Data center load growth will add 153 GW of capacity by 2050, according to our calculations. PJM and Washington under the Bonneville Power Administration (WEST BPAT) see the most data center-driven load growth given subsea and onshore access to fiber.
- We expect significant growth in residential solar and storage. Based on annual savings and irradiance, we see Florida and Texas as the areas with the highest demand offset to base load from BTM solar generation.
- Our PJM forecast benchmarks below the ISO’s primarily due to differences in our data center demand projections. We believe that data center load estimates across the U.S. are overstated: load outlooks from ISOs often incorporate biases either to encourage new policy or add a margin of safety. We believe our model contains more realistic projections for each significant load segment using an unbiased and consistent methodology across the Lower 48.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Intelligence® Research, Enverus Foundations P&R and Enverus Carbon Innovation Foundations.
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About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections between energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering anytime, anywhere access to analytics and insights for more than 95% of U.S. energy producers and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996
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