CALGARY, Alberta (Mar. 3, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has released a new analysis examining the energy market implications of U.S. military strikes on Iran, warning that risks to oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chains have increased meaningfully and could drive sharp price volatility if disruptions persist.
EIR estimates that a geopolitical risk premium of roughly $10 to $15 per barrel is currently embedded in oil prices, though that premium may understate the scale of potential disruption should transit through the Strait of Hormuz be materially impaired. Approximately 14 million barrels per day of crude oil, roughly one-third of global seaborne supply, along with about 20 percent of global LNG volumes, transit the strait.
“A prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz would represent a significant macroeconomic shock and rapidly tighten energy balances, while raising the risk of recession,” said Al Salazar, head of macro research at EIR. “A one-month closure alone would draw an estimated 400 million barrels from global inventories, quickly erasing today’s modest surplus and pushing prices materially higher as importers move to secure supply.”
In its research, EIR also noted heightened uncertainty surrounding Iranian crude exports following reported damage to Kharg Island, which could place roughly 2 million barrels per day of supply at risk. If Kharg Island were offline for an extended period, this could add an additional $10 to $15 per barrel to its current 2026 Brent crude price forecast of $63 per barrel, EIR estimates.
Natural gas markets have already begun reacting to the increased risk. QatarEnergy-related LNG disruptions affect an estimated 10 to 11 Bcf per day, or about 20 percent of global LNG trade. Given the limited short-term supply elasticity in LNG markets, EIR expects price, rather than volume, to absorb much of the initial adjustment. Japan-Korea Marker prices nearly doubled following the announcement, underscoring the sensitivity of global gas markets to multi-Bcf-per-day supply shocks.
Key takeaways:
- Oil markets face asymmetric upside risk as even a short-lived disruption to Hormuz transit would rapidly draw down inventories and could push Brent prices into triple-digit territory if importers engage in precautionary stockpiling.
- Global LNG supply is particularly exposed, with Qatar-linked volumes representing roughly one-fifth of global trade. Historical precedent suggests price responses could be swift and severe when large volumes are removed from the market.
- U.S. natural gas prices could move materially higher in response to global LNG tightness, benefiting producers in the near term but potentially incentivizing increased drilling activity over time, particularly in the Haynesville shale.
- Current oil inventory buffers exist, with OECD crude and product stocks above the five-year average. However, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is roughly 200 million barrels below 2018 levels, leaving less margin for sustained disruption.
- Geopolitical price spikes have historically proven temporary, though near-term volatility is likely to increase as insurance costs rise, time spreads widen, and Asian importers move to secure prompt supply.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
