CALGARY, Alberta (Sept. 23, 2025) Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, released a report today highlighting the impending depletion of North America’s core oil and gas inventory and its implications for global energy markets.
“North America’s dominance in supplying global oil demand growth is waning. Over the next decade, its contribution to consumption growth is expected to fall below 50% — a stark contrast to the previous 10 years when it supplied more than 100%,” said Alex Ljubojevic, director at EIR.
“As core shale oil inventory in the U.S. depletes, the industry is entering a new era of higher costs and more complex development. This shift will reshape the cost curve and redefine investment strategies across the continent,” Ljubojevic said.
Key Takeaways:
- Rising costs ahead: The marginal cost of U.S. oil supply is projected to rise from $70/bbl WTI today to $95 by the mid-2030s, driven by a shift from economically proven inventory to more speculative locations.
- The Permian and Canadian oil sands lead: The Permian Basin and Canadian oil sands are the continent’s lowest-cost sources of scalable oil supply. The oil sands benefits from strong Western Canadian Select (WCS) prices and sunk infrastructure costs.
- Gas inventory tightens post-2035: While U.S. gas inventory is ample in the near term, very low-cost supply becomes scarce beyond 2035, particularly in the Marcellus, Haynesville and Utica.
- Canadian growth hinges on infrastructure: Canada’s oil production is forecasted to grow by 450 Mbbl/d by 2030, with natural gas output reaching 22 Bcf/d. However, given the country’s vast low-cost, oil and gas resources expanding export capacity infrastructure could unlock significant upside to these estimates.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus Placed Well Intelligence, and Play Fundamentals, an EIR research series that dives into a key geographical basin or technology. Updated annually, Play Fundamentals include technical research and interactive maps, investment opportunities, benchmarking, macro trends and basin analytics, empowering readers to make intelligent connections and, overall, more informed investment, operating and strategic decisions. It is considered the most in-depth research EIR offers and among the most-read analysis series in the energy industry.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
