CALGARY, Alberta (April 8, 2025) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, is releasing its annual Oil Sands Play Fundamentals report that examines recent development trends, remaining resource and associated economics across both surface mining and steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) projects.
“The oil sands resource in Western Canada is vast and anticipated to continue to grow approximately 400 MMbbl/d by the end of the decade,” said Dane Gregoris, managing director at EIR.
“Almost all of this growth will be driven by brownfield expansions of existing SAGD projects. We expect WCSB oil production will fill existing pipeline capacity by 2027. Enbridge’s Mainline expansion and TMX’s additional expansion should relieve egress pressure thereafter.”
“Existing projects deliver the lowest-breakeven oil in the region. Total company-disclosed proved oil reserves amount to about 30 billion barrels which breaks-even at prices lower than $50 WTI. That’s over 20 years of current production.”
“To access most of the remaining 100 plus billion barrels of undeveloped oil sands resource, new greenfield mining and SAGD projects are required. According to our calculations, top-tier greenfield SAGD projects require stable oil prices of $80 plus WTI to generate enough profits to be greenlit in today’s market environment,” said Gregoris.
Key takeaways from the report:
- Canada is anticipated to grow oil production by ~600 Mbbl/d by 2030 with oil sands expansion projects making up two-third of this volume.
- U.S. trade tensions and oil price declines, if sustained, may slow down oil sands growth but only at the margin, given these are long lead time projects and significant capital is already sunk.
Play Fundamentals is an EIR research series that dives into a key geographical basin or technology. A collective series, with each play updated annually, it includes technical research and interactive maps, investment opportunities, benchmarking, macro trends and basin analytics, empowering readers to make intelligent connections and, overall, more informed investment, operating and strategic decisions. It is considered the most in-depth research EIR offers and among the most-read analysis series in the energy industry.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
