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Looming Recession and Weaker Global Demand Expected to Push Oil Prices Below $100/bbl by Year End

Continued impact of COVID-19, Ukraine war and global economy skews supply balance

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

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Calgary, Alberta (August 3, 2022) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading global energy data analytics and SaaS technology company, has released Macro Forecaster, a new report that assesses the continued impact of COVID-19, the Ukraine war and weakening global economy on near-term oil and gas balances.

“Until July we have argued that Brent pricing was well supported at $100/bbl. However, the downside risks are becoming more prominent, and we now expect some sort of European recession by the end of the year. This will loosen balances by 1-2 MMbbl/d as weaker global demand emerges. We expect Brent to drift to the mid-$80s/low-$90s by year-end,” said Bill Farren-Price, one of the report’s authors and a director at Enverus Intelligence Research.

The report noted recent strength in U.S. gas prices. “The NYMEX summer strip traded at a wide range from ~$5.50-8.00/MMBtu in July. For summer 2022 and winter 2022-2023, our supply estimates are based on guidance that has zero elasticity. However, next summer we expect supply growth to push prices downwards to around $4.50/MMBtu. As for demand, industrial activity and power generation are showing no signs of slowing.”

Frequently asked questions answered in the report:

faq oil and gas

The Macro Forecaster combines EIR’s former PetroLogicNear-Term Gas Market Outlook reports and elements of the Completions, Crews and Consumables report into a consolidated view of the energy industry.

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus’ expert analysts.

About Enverus

Enverus is the leading energy SaaS company delivering highly-technical insights and predictive/prescriptive analytics that empower customers to make decisions that increase profit. Enverus’ innovative technologies drive production and investment strategies, enable best practices for energy and commodity trading and risk management, and reduce costs through automated processes across critical business functions. Enverus is a strategic partner to more than 6,000 customers in 50 countries. Learn more at Enverus.com.

About Enverus Intelligence Research

Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters.  Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser.

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