CALGARY, Alberta (June 6, 2023) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released its latest Macro Forecaster, a report developed for the financial services industry, and focused on the outlook for near-term oil and gas prices. In EIR’s report discusses relevant fundamental drivers of oil and gas prices, North American oil and gas supply and demand, and inflationary impacts around general global economic uncertainty.
EIR continues to call for a gradual improvement of global economic activity and seasonal demand tail winds to lead to a supply shortage of 1-3 MMbbl/d in 2H23 and $100/bbl Brent by 4Q23. Crude oil prices should be higher than they currently are. However, short sellers concerned about the global economy and oil demand (currently, at an all-time high of approximately 101.5 MMbbl/d) are keeping prices subdued. Moreover, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman stated, “I keep advising them (speculative short sellers) that they will be ouching,” in reference to expected losses should oil price come closer to the Saudis’ and our expectations.
“We anticipate that demand growth from China and India will account for 80% of oil demand growth this year,” said Al Salazar, senior vice president at EIR.
“There is a risk that front-month NYMEX prices could test below our anticipated price range since storage remains on pace to challenge record highs,” Salazar said.
Key takeaways the report:
- EIR continues to expect that an improvement in global economic activity, combined with a seasonal demand uplift, will create an oil supply shortage in the second half of this year — underpinning the call for Brent oil prices to hit $100/bbl by the end of 2023.
- Although gas activity is finally starting to slow, EIR expects record high storage levels in the U.S. by the end of the injection season, with the Northeast storage region will feeling the pinch first.
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About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters. Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser.
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