News Release

Oil Price Forecasting and Geopolitical Risk

byEnverus

Calgary, Alberta (May 3, 2022) — Enverus Intelligence Research, a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading global energy data analytics and SaaS technology company, has introduced a new geopolitical risk index built to gauge market sentiment and better understand oil price movements beyond fundamental price forecasting.

“By quantifying the geopolitical premium, we estimate how much of a risk differential is warranted versus the fundamental price forecast,” said Bill Farren-Price, lead report author and director of Enverus Intelligence Research. “The current geopolitical premium has eroded materially as Brent appears to have settled around the $100/bbl mark — a value that we feel is fundamentally justified. The geopolitical premium reached its peak when Russia invaded Ukraine and Brent touched $139/bbl.”

Key takeaways from the report:

  • EIR can now project not just global oil supply, demand and stocks, but also explain the spread in forecast oil prices from our fundamental outlook based on a sentiment score generated by a proprietary algorithm fed by open-source keywords.
  • The new index enables us to estimate geopolitical premium or discount in oil prices. The index our geopolitical index can be useful for market participants such as oil option traders, oil price hedgers and geopolitical observers.
  • Looking back through history, we can see those events, such as the Arab Spring tensions, resulted in $10-$15/bbl price premium in 2012-2013, drone attacks at Saudi’s Abqaiq-Khurais facility led to a premium of about $10/bbl in 2019, and an anticipated demand rebound from COVID-19 equated to nearly $20/bbl.

Graph of Oil Price Forecasting Foundation

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus Intelligence Research’s expert analysts.

About Enverus
Enverus is the leading energy SaaS company delivering highly-technical insights and predictive/prescriptive analytics that empower customers to make decisions that increase profit. Enverus’ innovative technologies drive production and investment strategies, enable best practices for energy and commodity trading and risk management, and reduce costs through automated processes across critical business functions. Enverus is a strategic partner to more than 6,000 customers in 50 countries. Learn more at Enverus.com.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters. Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser.

Enverus

Enverus

Energy’s most trusted SaaS platform — creating intelligent connections that uncover insights and opportunities to deliver extraordinary outcomes.

Related News

Enverus Press Release - From insights to injections: CCS Class VI permit applications surged 500%
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released a new report analyzing data from its updated Class VI permit tracker, which includes new entries such as CO2 source location, facility details, approval...

Enverus Press Release - Enverus wins Thought Industries Best Innovation Using Extensibility Award
News Release
ByEnverus

For the third year in a row, Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has been awarded a Top Workplaces distinction by both the Austin American-Statesman and Houston Chronicle.

Enverus Press Release - Summoning Haynesville
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released its latest Fundamental Edge report, which focuses on global drivers for oil and gas prices through 2030, the five-year oil and gas supply and...

Enverus Press Release - The Barnett bonanza is coming
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released a new report examining various exploration and production (E&P) companies testing the Barnett Formation in the Midland Basin, including economic and productivity outcomes.

Enverus Press Release - Widespread electric vehicle adoption may be ‘just around the corner’
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released a new report with an updated view on electric vehicle (EV) adoption across its coverage regions (U.S., OECD Europe, OECD Asia, India and China)....

Enverus Press Release - Enverus adds Energy Transition solutions around $3.5T/year sector
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company, is adding new product solutions to meet the needs of the developing, $3.5 trillion/year energy transition market.

Enverus Press Release - $14B in 3Q23 upstream M&A overshadowed by October’s $60B+ historic deals
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, is releasing its summary of 3Q23 upstream merger and acquisition (M&A) activity.

Enverus Press Release - $14B in 3Q23 upstream M&A overshadowed by October’s $60B+ historic deals
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, is releasing its summary of 3Q23 upstream merger and acquisition (M&A) activity.

Enverus Press Release - Triple-digit oil prices will impact global economy
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released its latest FundamentalEdge report, which focuses on global drivers for oil and gas prices through 2030, the five-year oil and gas supply and demand...

Find Out How Enverus Can Help Your Business

Subscribe to the Energy Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Get Started

Register Today

Get Energy Transition Research updates straight to your inbox by filling out the form below.

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert