CALGARY, Alberta (Feb. 19, 2025) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, has released a report on net load trends in the Lower 48 states. The report highlights the growing integration of renewable energy across independent system operators (ISOs) and the importance of dispatchable assets in meeting demand. As reserve margins evolve, batteries are emerging as essential for maintaining grid reliability.
“Batteries are becoming increasingly crucial for reliability in order to meet future net load requirements,” said Juan Arteaga, senior associate at EIR. “Due to increased penetration of renewable generation across the Lower 48 states, annual positive net load amounts decrease substantially.”
“We find that reserve margins are trending closer to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) recommended reserve margin’s floor in some regions, calling for greater dispatchable capacity buildout,” Arteaga said. “Batteries, which play a key role in reserve margins, are crucial to help maintain reserves to adequate levels. Accelerated battery buildout must occur to keep reserve margins in check and to meet net load.”
Key takeaways from the report:
- Renewable energy generation and battery deployment across the Lower 48 states must speed up to keep pace with load growth and address declining reserve margins.
- Annual net load in the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), where wind and solar energy installations are prevalent, is expected to decrease by 82% and 65%, respectively, by 2050.
- The increase in renewable energy development ahead of load growth in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM), WEST, Southeast (SE) and ISO New England (ISO-NE) lead to a parabolic trend in annual positive net load, with declines up to 56% by 2039 before rebounding to 2024 levels.
- Retiring coal plants and slow storage growth, combined with rising demand, will shrink reserve margins to 14% in SPP, 27% in MISO and 30% in the New York ISO (NYISO) by 2039. We predict the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) reserve margins, propelled by battery installs and natural gas additions, will reach 142% by 2032. The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) will rise to 118% by 2050, supported by solar and battery growth.
- EIR expects all regions to update their market designs, placing a strong emphasis on reliability-focused markets, including ancillary services and capacity markets.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Foundations® | Power & Renewables.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
