CALGARY, Alberta (Oct. 22, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, has released a new report that includes the organization’s capacity expansion model for the Lower 48 states based on forecast load, risked interconnection queues and technology cost curves.
“Total installed operating capacity in the Lower 48 is projected to grow approximately 203% by 2050,” said Juan Arteaga, senior analyst at EIR. “This growth is likely to be led by ERCOT, WEST, SPP and PJM. We expect the share of renewable installed capacity to expand from about 31% today to 63%.”
“A substantial overbuild of renewables is necessary to manage load growth and offset their lower reliability and capacity,” Arteaga said. “Compared to what the ISOs publish, we predict higher installed capacity in most regions because of larger natural gas capacity additions needed to ensure dispatchable power for grid stability. This approach ensures sufficient capacity to meet demand when renewables underperform, despite ISO’s projects for a largely renewable-powered future.”
Key takeaways from the report:
- EIR projects a ~203% increase in total installed capacity in the L48 by 2050, with renewable capacity expected to grow from ~31% to ~63%. All regions are forecast to see a declining average net load by 2029 due to renewables penetration.
- Most regions will experience a higher annual peak net load, indicating a need for increased dispatchable capacity.
- We expect higher installed capacity in most regions than ISO forecasts due to larger natural gas capacity additions for grid stability. This ensures enough capacity to meet demand when renewables underperform, despite ISOs’ projections for a renewables-powered future.
- After 2030, SPP’s net load becomes negative as renewable generation exceeds demand during certain periods of the year, leading to the challenge of managing surplus energy and emphasizing the critical role of storage and demand-side management to avoid curtailment.
- A significant increase in renewable energy infrastructure is necessary to manage load growth and compensate for lower reliability and capacity factors, leading to surplus generation during peak conditions and intensifying the need for energy storage and demand-response solutions.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Energy Transition Research and Enverus’ proprietary Interconnection Queue Analytics tool.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996
