CALGARY, Alberta (March 28, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading generative AI and energy-dedicated SaaS company, has released a report that quantifies annual cost savings of rooftop solar and forecasts residential demand. The report looks at the historical correlation between available cost savings and annual installs, while considering the impacts of incentives, retail power prices, solar panel and storage system costs, interest rates, and the implementation of the net metering tariff.
“The U.S. is expected to witness a substantial surge in rooftop solar installations, with an anticipated 616 gigawatts installed by 2050, representing a 41% adoption rate among eligible households. Texas leads this expansion with over 75 gigawatts of capacity by 2050, followed closely by California, New York and Florida,” said Kevin Kang, senior associate at Enverus.
“As interest rates stabilize and solar panel costs decrease by a projected 29% from the current year to 2030, the period between 2025 and 2029 holds significant economic potential for the residential solar market,” Kang said.
“States expected to implement a net metering tariff before 2030, such as California, Arizona, Massachusetts, Colorado and Rhode Island, are forecasted to experience the greatest impact on new installations.
“In addition, storage solutions paired with new residential solar installs are expected to become economically feasible in 2033, with 29 out of the 48 states showing more savings. Notably, California, Arizona and Massachusetts are poised to reap the highest savings due to their early implementation of a net metering tariff.”
Key takeaways:
- EIR anticipates 616 gigawatts of installed rooftop solar in the U.S. by 2050, or 41% adoption across households that have the potential to install it.
- Texas leads the robust expansion of residential solar installations, boasting more than 75 gigawatts of capacity by 2050. Next is California with more than 69 gigawatts, followed by New York and Florida at 46 gigawatts and 41 gigawatts.
- EIR expects an increase in the number of residential solar customers in the coming years as interest rates stabilize. The period 2025-2029 holds significant economic potential, especially with a projected 29% decrease in solar panel costs from the current year to 2030.
- States expected to implement a net metering tariff before 2030 (California, Arizona, Massachusetts, Colorado and Rhode Island) are forecast to have the greatest impact on new installs. States such as Texas, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana are experiencing a smaller impact because of increases in solar prices and a decrease in solar panel costs.
- Storage solutions paired with new residential solar installs become economically feasible in 2033, with 29 out of the 48 states showing more savings. The highest savings will be in California, Arizona and Massachusetts due to an early implementation of a net metering tariff.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Foundations® Power & Renewables.
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About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, generative AI and energy-dedicated SaaS platform, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 98% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 35,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
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