Behind the meter (BTM) solar is a key factor in decreasing load in CAISO, especially in California where it has the most impact on annual demand. The state’s potential for nearly 195 GW of rooftop solar capacity exists, although its full realization is unlikely. The implementation of new building codes mandating rooftop solar installations is set to contribute around 1.5 GW per year to this growing trend. With an existing 9 GW of residential rooftop solar and annual growth of 15%-17%, the recent introduction of the Net Energy Metering (NEM) 3.0 policy is expected to shift the landscape, causing a temporary slowdown in BTM solar installations and a corresponding rise in BTM storage installations. This is due to the policy’s financial disincentives for excessive solar deployment in residential systems.
Nevertheless, the synergy of increasing power prices and diminishing solar costs is poised to enhance the viability of BTM solar installations. By adhering to this trajectory, the prospect of reclaiming pre-NEM 3.0 levels by 2034 emerges, with a projected stable annual growth rate of 5%, leading to over 52 GW total BTM solar capacity by 2050 (Figure 1).
Highlights from Energy Transition Research
- EPA’s Emissions Revisions – More Rules, Double the Methane, Triple the Tax – EIR quantifies the impact of the EPA’s proposed changes to Subpart W of the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, estimating the increase in total reported methane, overall CO2e emissions levels and IRA methane fee liabilities across U.S. sectors and basins. EIR analyzes the new emission source categories and modified calculations, focusing on the most material revisions and their potential to significantly alter the current emissions landscape in the U.S.
- The Ways to Play – Energy Transition Opportunities for Upstream Participants – This report establishes a framework for how E&Ps can view and eventually participate in the energy transition. Upstream operators are increasingly exploring the energy transition, but many remain hesitant to deploy capital. Any decision, including inaction, must be well-informed and deliberate in response to growing stakeholder demands. An operator’s energy transition strategy is strongly shaped by the context of its current business, the capabilities of its assets and workforce, and most importantly its conviction in the necessity to participate in the first place.
- CAISO Load Forecast – EVs Pave Way for Growth – This report assesses the impact of upcoming policy and technological advancements on power demand in California. EIR’s findings are represented in an hourly demand forecast that extends to 2050.
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