Energy Analytics Power and Renewables

Accurate Load Forecasting on a Rainy Day in L.A.

byRob Allerman

When you think about Los Angeles weather, you likely think of warm and sunny. In fact, L.A. is so sunny, it ranks No. 1 in total installed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the U.S., with more than 483.8 megawatts (MW) of capacity.

But what happens when it is cold and rainy?

Southern California recently experienced rainy weather and the CAISO under-forecasted 90% of the hours during the lookback period. This is likely because solar power was expected to increase during peak hours and reduce demand. But solar panels are not effective when it is cold and rainy, as seen in the charts below reflecting load forecast from Dec. 7-9.

Chart showing PRT and ISO load forecast, and actual versus forecast temperature

Over the past few years, ISOs, load forecasting companies, and utilities have had to learn to forecast and manage the California “duck curve” as solar power has increased and load decreases during the day. However, when it’s cold and rainy, the load returns to its normal pattern and increases during the day.

If the ISO or load forecasting company is not also forecasting behind-the-meter or adjusting for weather, utilities may be caught off guard if they don’t have thermal generation available to come on line during the middle of the day to meet that load.

Chart showing Enverus price forecast day ahead for SP-15 hub

Enverus’ PRT load forecasting solution combines weather with historical data to produce a more accurate forecast. This better prepares utilities and provides enormous opportunities for day-ahead and real-time traders. If the ISO is not forecasting behind-the-meter, day-ahead or real-time, prices will look much lower than the actual price (some of the price inaccuracies on the Dec. 7 were due to unit forced outages).

We expect to see additional weather in the coming months and want to ensure utilities are prepared and traders are informed with the most accurate information. To see how Enverus can play a vital role in the success of your load forecasting efforts, or to see the full power report we reference above, contact us using the form below.

Picture of Rob Allerman

Rob Allerman

Rob Allerman is Senior Director of Power Analytics at Enverus. Before joining Enverus, Rob was Head of North America Power Analytics at EDF Power Trading in Houston, Texas, and spent many years as a power analyst at Deutsche Bank. Rob also worked in the western U.S. for nearly 10 years at Power Utilities and started his career as a Hydrologist for the Federal Government.

Subscribe to the Enverus Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Related Content

Enverus Intelligence Research Press Release - Upstream M&A sails to $17 billion in 1Q25
Energy Transition
ByAmyra Mardhani

Exxon Mobil (XOM) inked a pivotal offtake agreement with Marubeni to supply 250,000 tonnes of low-carbon ammonia annually to Japan’s Kobe Power Plant for cofiring. The deal helps to derisk XOM’s hydrogen facility planned at its Baytown complex in Texas...

Enverus Press Release - Lessons learned from Eaton and the risk of wildfires spread by transmission lines
Generative AI Minerals
ByTemi Oyetayo

The energy industry thrives on data-driven decisions. For more than 25 years, Enverus has delivered transformative solutions that streamline workflows and enhance efficiency. As part of our commitment to revolutionizing land management, we are proud to introduce Instant Analyst™ –...

Enverus Press Release - E&Ps with natural gas + CCS pave way for model data center development
Energy Transition Power and Renewables
ByElliot Ryland

PJM, CAISO and MISO have all experienced significant spikes in capacity market prices. The last auction in PJM cleared at $269.92/MW-day, increasing ~834% from $28.92/MW-day. In CAISO the resource adequacy price saw a similar increase, jumping from $160.60/MW-day in 2020...

Enverus Intelligence® Research Press Release - OPEC+ cuts and Trump tariffs force price downgrade
Minerals
ByPhillip Dunning

Managing minerals and non-op interests should be straightforward; but for most, its far from that. The reality? Royalty and non-op management is drowning in inefficiencies. Address changes turn into endless paperwork. Revenue statements pile up in scattered formats. Reconciliation feels...

Enverus Press Release - Enverus releases Investor Analytics: Refined, actionable financial insights at your fingertips
Energy Transition Power and Renewables
ByCarson Kearl, Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) Contributor

China’s electric vehicle (EV) industry is making headlines with the rollout of fast chargers capable of recharging a vehicle in just five minutes. Leading this transformation are BYD, the world’s largest EV manufacturer, and CATL, the biggest battery producer, with...

Enverus Press Release - Enverus honored as one of Alberta’s leading employers
Business Automation
ByEnverus

Discover how Enverus RFx streamlines procurement for oil & gas operations. Learn key insights from our webinar on efficient bidding and supplier management.

Enverus Press Release - DUC Hunt: What the 2025 drawdown means
Analyst Takes
ByAl Salazar, Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) Contributor

In a recent conversation with Loren McGinnis, host of CBC’s Calgary Eye Opener, I, Al Salazar of Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), analyzed the fragile state of the global economy and its ripple effects on energy markets. We explored the sharp...

Enverus Press Release - E&Ps with natural gas + CCS pave way for model data center development
Power and Renewables
ByEric Palmer

Master PJM & MISO transmission constraints with Enverus real-time grid analytics and congestion analytics for smarter power trading.

Enverus Intelligence® Research Press Release - Delayed data center demand response: How quickly can ISOs add new loads?
Power and Renewables
ByAshton Dirks

In today’s volatile energy markets, traders need instant access to accurate data to power their workflows. Whether you’re navigating nodal pricing, forecasting renewable output or managing risk in markets like ERCOT or PJM, the Mosaic API seamlessly delivers grid analytics...

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Sign up for our Blog

Register Today

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert