CALGARY, Alberta (April 1, 2025) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages Generative AI across its solutions, has released its latest Fundamental Edge report.
EIR’s report focuses on the outlook for oil and gas prices driven by supply and demand fundamentals, as well as the impact of a turbulent geopolitical landscape has on energy markets. Pivotal events shifting market sentiment and direction include increased uncertainty on global trade due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs and OPEC’s decision to unwind cuts.
“We increased our NYMEX Henry Hub gas price forecast for the rest of 2025, driven by the faster than expected ramp up of the Plaquemines LNG facility and bullish weather. However, our price outlook remains ~30 cents below the current forward strip. High natural gas prices are a headwind to gas-fired generation to the benefit of coal, while L48 production continues to outperform our expectations, overcoming anemic activity” said Al Salazar, report author and director at EIR.
“For Brent, current fundamentals appear bullish. In 1Q25, crude and product stock levels drew down and remain low, while the forward curve is backwardated.” However, “President Donald Trump’s tariff war and OPEC’s unwinding of cuts, clearly shifts oil price momentum – bearish. EIR sees storage builds over the coming quarters, which isn’t supportive of 2025 oil prices. For 2026, should OPEC stand firm and continue to unwind production cuts, oil balances will become bloated, and prices will suffer,” Salazar said.
Key takeaways from the report:
- As per recent events, EIR anticipates weaker oil fundamentals to come and re-affirms its downgraded Brent oil price view for 2025 and 2026. OPEC’s unwinding of production cuts along with global tariff uncertainty will weigh on market sentiment, balances and price.
- EIR has upgraded its NYMEX Henry Hub gas price forecast, projecting it will settle to an average of $3.90/MMBtu for the rest of 2025.
- High gas prices have become a headwind to natural gas generation, as it is being displaced by coal-fired generation. Meanwhile, natural gas supply continues to outperform our expectations and is producing at record levels, despite anemic activity.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research:
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
