CALGARY, Alberta (Jan. 28, 2025) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, has released its latest Fundamental Edge report, which focuses on global drivers for oil and gas prices through 2030, the five-year oil and gas supply and demand outlook, and price forecasts.
“A recent rally boosted natural gas prices 30 cents above our expectation of $3.50 for the year. Anemic drilling activity, currently below COVID-19 levels, should ramp up throughout in response to elevated prices. EIR’s call for supply growth is counter-consensus to most projections. Our conviction is driven by last year’s summer example, where high prices led to more supply. History will repeat itself,” said Al Salazar, report author and director at EIR.
“There is no debate: global oil demand today exceeds global oil supply, leading to continued draws on stocks that are already at low levels. EIR expects supply growth to outpace demand growth in 2025, but inventory will remain precariously low, leading to Brent averaging a volatile $80/bbl for the year. That said, EIR is concerned about 2026. Last fall, speculation of OPEC shifting its preference to capture market share was proven premature. However, non-OPEC supply growth in 2026 will test OPEC’s resolve, which may tempt the cartel to then recapture market share,” Salazar said.
Key takeaways from the report:
- After premature speculation last fall of OPEC switching strategies to capture market share, four months later the cartel continues to show it prefers to maintain price stability. EIR expects Brent to average a volatile $80/bbl in 2025.
- OPEC’s resolve will be put to the test in 2026, as continued non-OPEC production growth will pressure global oil balances.
- L48 drilling activity in Appalachian and the Haynesville shale is now lower than during the pandemic. EIR has a counter-consensus view for L48 gas supply growth this year, supported at a rest-of-year average $3.50/MMBtu. Our price call is about 30 cents below the current strip.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Intelligence® Research.
You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.
About Enverus Intelligence® Research:
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
