News Release

Sunburned & winded: Only 30% of U.S. solar and 57% wind projects expected to survive under one, Big, Beautiful Bill Act

California and Arizona shine in solar strength, Montana and Oklahoma lead in protecting wind

byEnverus

CALGARY, Alberta (July 15, 2025) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages Generative AI across its solutions, has released a new report accessing the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act now that it has been signed into law. In the report, EIR experts evaluate where resilient renewable capacity is most concentrated in the U.S. queue and which solar and onshore wind developers are the most exposed.

“We define resilient projects as those with before-tax levelized cost of energy (LCOEs) that are lower than prevailing power and renewable energy credit (REC) prices. These competitive LCOEs can be achieved without the support of tax credits,” said EIR Analyst Corianna Mah.

“In our analysis, we estimate the top three largest renewable portfolios each have less than 30% of resilient queued capacity.”

“We expect development activity to shift toward states with renewable portfolio standard targets like Arizona, Ohio and others, where stronger REC prices and policy support can still underpin project economics and long-term offtake power purchase agreements (PPAs),” Mah said.

Key takeaways from the report:

  • An estimated 30% of solar and 57% of onshore wind capacity are resilient to removing the investment and production tax credits. These projects can achieve a before-tax LCOE below their respective markets’ forward power and REC prices without relying on tax credits.
  • Among the five states with the largest queued solar capacity, Texas, Illinois and Indiana have the lowest shares of resilient projects — 6%, 40% and 41%. Nearly all queued solar projects in California and Arizona are resilient.
  • Of the leading states by queued onshore wind capacity, Iowa, Illinois and Texas have low shares of resilient projects between 21% and 61%. All evaluated wind projects in Montana and most in Oklahoma meet our resilience threshold.

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus FOUNDATIONS® | Power & Renewables.

You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.

About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

Picture of Enverus

Enverus

Energy’s most trusted SaaS platform — creating intelligent connections that uncover insights and opportunities to deliver extraordinary outcomes.

Related News

Enverus releases Top 50 Public E&P Operators of 2025
News Release
ByEnverus

Discover Enverus' Top 50 Public E&P Operators of 2025, featuring ExxonMobil, Expand Energy, and ConocoPhillips. Get insights into U.S. onshore production trends and Permian Basin dominance.

Venezuela’s return North America to absorb incremental heavy oil supply as Brent outlook remains unchanged
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence® Research projects Venezuela’s oil production to rise by 500,000 barrels per day, with minimal Brent price impact as North American markets absorb incremental supply. Discover key insights on global oil markets, U.S. Gulf Coast, and Canadian crude from...

Breaking news alert on the impact on oil prices due to Israel attacking Iran
Blog Topics News Release
ByEnverus

Gain forward‑looking insights from Enverus’ 2026 Global Energy Outlook, including forecasts for oil and gas prices, rising U.S. supply, evolving power‑grid demands and selective low‑carbon investment trends. This concise analysis highlights key market drivers shaping reliability, capital allocation and energy...

Enverus named Best Place to Work across key U.S. markets
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus was recognized in Built In’s 2026 Best Places to Work Awards across major U.S. markets, highlighting its people first culture, AI driven innovation, and commitment to workplace excellence.

Mauritania and Senegal Opportunities and challenges in Africa’s forgotten hot spot
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence® Research explores the Mauritania–Senegal Basin’s untapped potential and investment challenges, highlighting opportunities for agile independents amid shifting market dynamics.

Libyin’ la vida loca New bid round and fiscal reforms attract global energy investors
News Release
ByEnverus

Explore how Libya’s 2025 bid round, improved fiscal terms, and vast resource potential are attracting global energy investors. Enverus Intelligence® Research analyzes the opportunities and risks in its latest energy market report.

Permian and coastal gas pipeline buildout key to meeting surging U.S. LNG export demand
News Release
ByEnverus

New Enverus Intelligence® Research reveals how Permian Basin gas and pipeline expansion are critical to meeting surging U.S. LNG export demand, highlighting the urgent need for expanded Gulf Coast infrastructure as feedgas demand outpaces supply growth.

Henry's bullish enthusiasm premature
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence® Research’s new Fundamental Edge report forecasts major shifts in global oil and gas markets for 2026, including Brent crude price outlooks, OPEC production trends, and LNG market momentum.

Enverus AI Powering the next era of energy intelligence
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus, the leading energy SaaS and analytics platform, today unveiled Enverus AI, a secure, purpose-built system that transforms AI's vast potential into measurable results for energy workflows.

Find Out How Enverus Can Help Your Business

Subscribe to the Energy Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Get Started

Sign up for our Blog

Ready to Get Started?

Ready to Subscribe?

Register Today

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert