CALGARY, Alberta (Dec. 16, 2025) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, has published its latest Fundamental Edge report, examining key trends in global oil and gas supply, demand and pricing outlooks for 2026 and beyond.
EIR projects oil prices will weaken in 2026, with Brent crude expected to average $55 per barrel. Henry Hub natural gas is pegged at $3.80/MMBtu through the remainder of winter, the end of March, before softening to $3.60/MMBtu in summer 2026. Near-term oil price pressure reflects global inventory levels approaching highs last seen during the pandemic and the shale price war. Recent natural gas prices have remained significantly above historical norms compared to U.S. storage level. Current market dynamics echo the price premiums seen during the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions on Russian LNG. Expectations of a mild winter and ongoing Lower 48 supply growth will pressure today’s elevated prices.
Looking beyond 2026, EIR adopts a bullish stance. OPEC-12 liquids output is near historic highs and could tap untested spare capacity in coming years, while long-term oil demand projections have strengthened. At the same time, global oil and gas supply projects are declining due to underinvestment—setting the stage for tighter balances and higher prices later in the decade.
“Our analysis shows that while short-term pressures will weigh on oil and gas prices, both markets become supply-short post-2026. This should pave the way for renewed bullish momentum through the rest of the decade,” said Al Salazar, director at EIR.
Key takeaways:
- Brent crude forecast: EIR expects Brent to average $55/bbl in 2026 ($50 in H1, $60 in H2), with upside risks tied to Chinese strategic petroleum reserve purchases and the effectiveness of Russian sanctions.
- OPEC output: OPEC-12 liquids production is just 1.2 million barrels per day below its all-time high, suggesting used spare capacity maybe tested for the first time.
- Natural gas outlook: Henry Hub winter forecast is $3.80/MMBtu, ~35 cents below strip price but likely to come true should warmer weather arrive and production increases persist.
- U.S. production trends: Lower 48 oil production is projected to rise by ~243,000 barrels per day by end-2025, then decline by 255,000 barrels per day in 2026 if prices remain subdued.
- LNG market momentum: U.S. LNG feedgas reached record highs in 2025, and global supply is expected to remain ~2 Bcf/d above demand through 2030, with supply shortages possible post-2033.
Figure: Front Month Henry Hub vs. Current Storage Deviation to the 5-Year Average
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus PRISM®, Enverus FOUNDATIONS®, Enverus Instant Analyst™, and Mosaic.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
