Financial Services Power & Renewables

Clean fuels a mixed bag on OBBBA’s winners and losers list

Shortened deadlines and revised incentives shake up economics

byEnverus

CALGARY, Alberta (August 19, 2025) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages Generative AI across its solutions, has released a report examining how revisions to the 45Z and 45V production tax credits (PTC) under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could affect clean fuel production projects. EIR’s report highlights the key changes to the 45Z and 45V PTCs under the new law, assesses their impact on renewable natural gas (RNG) project economics, and reviews U.S. clean hydrogen projects to identify those at risk of missing the 45V PTC’s shortened eligibility window without project adjustments.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act delivers a mixed bag for clean fuel producers,” said Alex Nevokshonoff, senior analyst at EIR.

“Green hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) projects take a hit under the new rules, while biodiesel, renewable diesel, ethanol and RNG projects come out ahead,” Nevokshonoff said.

Key takeaways from the report:

  • OBBBA, signed into law on July 4, 2025, overhauls the tax credits introduced through the Inflation Reduction Act, including the 45Z clean fuel PTC and 45V clean hydrogen PTC. These revisions disadvantage green hydrogen, animal manure RNG, and SAF technologies, but favor renewable diesel, biodiesel, ethanol and landfill RNG projects.

  • After-tax internal-rate-of-returns for landfill RNG projects improve modestly from 60% to 62% with the two-year 45Z credit extension over a 25-year project life. However, D3 Renewable Identification Numbers still contribute up to 84% of the projects discounted revenues, limiting the extension’s overall impact.

  • The eligibility window for the 45V PTC, which applies to hydrogen produced with a carbon intensity below 4.0 kg CO₂e/kg H₂ and can lower the levelized cost of green hydrogen by up to 49%, has been cut short. Projects must now begin construction before 2028, five years earlier than the previous Dec. 31, 2032 deadline.
clean-hydrogen-projects-at-risk-of-losing-45v

You must be an Enverus Intelligence® Research subscriber to access this report.

About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

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