February brought significant congestion risks and extreme weather events to the MISO market, testing the resilience of the grid and the accuracy of market forecasts. Enverus analysts closely monitored key congestion drivers, identifying major risks ahead of time and delivering actionable insights to traders. From predicting congestion on critical transmission paths like GIBS-FRCS and PRES-TIBB to outperforming the ISO load forecast during the February cold snap, our expert analysis provided a competitive edge. Below, we highlight the top three market takeaways from the month and their impact on trading strategies.
1. GIBS-FRCS Congestion
The Friday before the “Cold Snap,” in MISO, our team was touting a risk for GIBS-FRCS congestion during the coming week. Judging by the shadow prices our view was correct.
Southern Indiana is particularly sensitive to supply imbalances between Gibson and Warrick coal units and the situation is made worse when Lawrence County does not ramp up. While shadow prices were moderate through the period, Wednesday the 19th was particularly strong and did help to give INDY HUB a boost in the DA, adding roughly $1 to the On-Peak average highlighted in our Mosaic decomposition below.
2. PRES-TIBB Congestion
On Tuesday morning, February 25, we called for weaker PRES-TIBB congestion for Wednesday’s DAM in the overnight and evening peak hours, with the Marion coal unit increasing generation. So, what were the results? Shadow prices dropped from $5,000 to $800 day-over-day, highlighted in our Mosaic tool below.
3. MISO Load Forecast Beats ISO Forecast During the Cold Snap
During the February cold snap from the 14th to 21st, the Enverus load forecast performed better than the ISO forecast. Over the week, Enverus load forecast MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) was 0.97% while the ISO forecast was 2.39%.
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About Enverus Power and Renewables
With a 15-year head start in renewables and grid intelligence, real-time grid optimization to the node, and unparalleled expertise in load forecasting that has outperformed the ISO forecasts, Enverus Power and Renewables is uniquely positioned to support all power insight needs and data driven decision-making. More than 6,000 businesses, including 1,000+ in electric power markets rely on our solutions daily.
