Energy Analytics

The Texas Cold Snap — Where Do We Go from Here?

byMark Nibbelink

Texas’ energy infrastructure, despite being warned after the 2011 freeze about the critical vulnerability of our fuel supplies and power supply system, found itself frozen from a cold weather event that no one thought likely … or even possible.

Our natural gas producing infrastructure was not weatherized. Our power plant and transmission infrastructure were not weatherized.

As a result, millions of Texans were plunged into a nightmare of no heat, bursting water pipes, and in some cases, lack of access to water. As of today, at least 31 deaths have been directly attributed to the failure of Texas’ energy system.

On Feb. 22, our power analytics team gave an excellent presentation on what went wrong during the historic freeze that led to ERCOT’s power failures. The chart above compares the coldest low temperatures during Texas’ biggest cold snaps. The 2011 storm temperatures were clearly outliers. 2011 wasn’t that cold at all in comparison to storms in the 20th century.

Ten years ago, no one in our industry would have:

  • Predicated a negative price for oil or the rapidity with which private equity and Wall Street pivoted from shale investors to ESG adopters.
  • Learned from the lessons of the Super Bowl cold snap freeze and saw the need to weatherize our critical infrastructure.

We have all paid the price by assuming that our systems will always work the way they have in the past. We need to check our assumptions at the door as we move forward through this energy transition, and really test what we think we know.

A review of technology and the future of (endless) energy demand

I was lucky enough to have power during our EVOLVE Conference and listened to Mark Mills’, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, presentation.

One of the slides he presented contrasted the CO2 benefits of EVs manufactured in various countries versus internal combustion engines (ICE).

Once the CO2 emissions inherent in the mining of materials, manufacturing car frames and components, and burning of fossil fuels to power each of these processes are accounted for, only electric vehicles manufactured in France and Norway — and perhaps the U.K., offer clear CO2 emission benefits.

The reason that France and Norway lead is that their power sources — nuclear in the case of France and hydro in Norway — rely on technologies or natural benefits that are unlikely to be replicated in other parts of the world.

Mr. Mills also called our attention to the fact that for every average (about 1,000 pounds in weight) car battery created, 250 tons of material will need to be mined. For an EV fleet of 30,000,000 vehicles about 7.5 billion tons of material will need to be mined, and of the materials need to create those batteries, only about 50% of the total is readily accessible and available in the U.S. Those 7.5 billion tons of material that are mined, depending on the material being removed, represent somewhere between 6 (granite)-1,000 (topsoil) cubic miles scars on the earth. And this is just for the batteries.

And for those who have total faith in innovation and technology to continually improve the efficiency and deliverability of power and transportation options, he points out that our current innovation cycles are approaching asymptotic limits on improvements.

Moving forward, an energy evolution

Managing our transition to and through a new energy and transportation paradigm will require us to think deeply, in complex ways, to ensure that we end up with a world that is better than we have now.

And this doesn’t address the social disruptions — loss of jobs in the fossil fuel industry, impacts of increased mining in third-world countries — and the economic upheaval — from changes in equity valuations and the massive amounts of capex required — to go down this road to a brave new world.

This evolution is going to require honest, clear thinking leadership across all spectra of all societies.

Let’s get to work.

Picture of Mark Nibbelink

Mark Nibbelink

Mark Nibbelink is co-founder and director of university outreach at Enverus. Before co-founding Enverus (formerly Drillinginfo) in 1999, Mark had a long career as a prospect geologist at Gulf Oil before beginning work as an independent geologist. Mark is responsible for quality control and data integrity. He received his Bachelor of Arts in geology and his master’s in geology and geophysics from Dartmouth College.

Subscribe to the Enverus Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Related Content

risk-manager-sector
Trading and Risk
ByChris Griggs

Are you struggling to find reliable, transparent benchmarks for your energy trading and analytics? Do you often face challenges in accessing consistent pricing data that is compliant with industry standards?

Enverus Intelligence Research Press Release - EIR: Density drives steepening declines in U.S. shale
Analyst Takes Intelligence
ByAl Salazar, Enverus Intelligence® | Research (EIR) Contributor

The following blog is distilled from an interview on the CBC’s “The Eyeopener,” hosted by Loren McGinnis who interviewed Enverus Intelligence® Research’s very own Al Salazar. Click here to listen to the full radio segment. With Brent hovering around $75,...

energy-transition
Energy Transition
ByAdam Robinson, Enverus Intelligence® | Research (EIR) Contributor

With the recent surge of renewable fuel adoption in California, we have analyzed and updated our long-term price forecast for low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credits using the latest two quarters of the California Air Resources Board (CARB) data.

energy-transition
Energy Transition
ByBrynna Foley

Over the last century, power demand and supply have been unmistakably intertwined. However, with the addition of variable renewable power this is no longer the case.

Serious-nature-topics-man-1
Intelligence
ByChris Griggs

Explore the contrasting energy policies of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and their potential implications on the U.S. and global energy sector. From renewable energy shifts to hydrocarbon strategies, understand how the 2024 election outcomes could reshape the industry. Watch...

Enverus News Release - Banking on Buzios’ oil supply
Intelligence
ByJoseph Gyure, Editor, Enverus Intelligence

Insurance companies are largely backing away from fossil fuel investments, but two major exceptions, Berkshire Hathaway and State Farm, have reportedly increased their holdings so much that they skewed the entire sector’s results.

Enverus Press Release - Seeing the ceiling: Maximizing output for today’s natural gas-fired grid
Midstream
ByAndrew Dittmar

Explore how NGLs are fueling North America's midstream merger momentum, driving operational synergies, and positioning companies for future growth.

lithium-extraction-blog-image
Energy Transition
ByAmyra Mardhani

Current EV charging behavior causes a peak in load during late evening hours when motorists return home and plug in their vehicles.

energy-transition
Energy Transition Financial Services
ByEnverus

Petroleum systems lose natural gas to the atmosphere in many ways that have drawn a laser focus from regulators seeking to stem the impact of greenhouse gases on global warming.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Sign up for our Blog

Register Today

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert