NextEra recently announced it signed contracts for 4 GW of new generation projects during the first quarter of 2026, comprised of 2.2 GW of solar, 1.3 GW of battery storage, and 0.5 GW of wind. The news landed as some reassurance amid growing pessimism around renewables demand, but it also validates a structural shift Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) has been tracking: projects are still getting built, just at materially higher prices (Figure 1). In particular, solar PPA prices and commercial solar PPA pricing have reset into a higher band, with the average solar PPA price in 2026 reflecting this new regime. For many buyers, the power purchase agreement cost is being re-evaluated as solar ppa rates and the typical PPA rate embed higher financing and equipment costs.
EIR’s analysis shows estimated PPA prices for new solar and onshore wind have risen sharply since their 2020 trough, roughly double the lows of five years ago (Figure 1). The shift in solar PPA prices has been especially notable in commercial solar PPA pricing, where solar PPA rates have climbed alongside supply chain and interconnection costs. The average solar PPA price in 2026 now captures higher expected capacity factors in some regions but also higher risk premiums, lifting the headline PPA rate and total power purchase agreement cost for offtakers.
Buildout of solar has continued, driven by data center and industrial offtakers absorbing the cost re-rating. Many corporates are recalibrating expectations around the PPA rate, prioritizing reliability and time-of-day shaping even as the power purchase agreement cost rises. Solar PPA prices may be higher, but the need to hedge power exposure and decarbonize keeps demand resilient, particularly where commercial solar PPA pricing can align with on-site load profiles or flexible contract structures.
Wind tells a more cautious story: onshore construction has dropped well below prior-year levels amid permitting rollbacks and accelerated tax credit phaseouts, while offshore has been hit by a wave of project cancellations under the new administration. This makes NEE’s 0.5 GW of wind signings a relative outlier in an otherwise challenging development environment. By contrast, solar PPA rates and the average solar PPA price in 2026, while elevated, have found a firmer footing due to modularity, faster deployment, and the ability to pair with storage to enhance value—factors that support stable commercial solar PPA pricing even as overall power purchase agreement cost metrics rise.
Research Highlights:
- Power and Renewables | Shifting to Stability: Reliability’s Growing Importance for the Grid – This report examines how rising power demand is colliding with interconnection delays, policy headwinds and supply chain constraints, driving independent system operators to fast-track dispatchable generation. We highlight shifting economics, surging gas valuations, renewable cost pressures and diverging trends in solar and battery storage markets. It also contextualizes how solar PPA prices and the PPA rate structure are evolving under these market forces.
- The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) | LCOEs Without a Lifeline – We analyze how the removal of Inflation Reduction Act tax credits affects the levelized cost of energy for solar and onshore wind. The findings help explain upward pressure on commercial solar PPA pricing and why the power purchase agreement cost has increased across multiple regions.
- Long-Term Capacity Expansion | The Three Eras of Capacity Growth – This report encompasses Enverus Intelligence® Research’s capacity expansion model for the Lower 48, based on forecast load, risked interconnection queues and technology cost curves. It illustrates how solar PPA prices, the average solar PPA price in 2026, and the PPA rate trajectory influence build decisions, particularly for data center and industrial offtakers sensitive to commercial solar PPA pricing.
What it means for buyers and developers: In today’s environment, the power purchase agreement cost is shaped by grid constraints, equipment pricing, and financing. Buyers should benchmark solar PPA rates against the average solar PPA price in 2026 and regional indices for commercial solar PPA pricing to ensure competitive terms. Developers, meanwhile, are structuring contracts with step-ups, indexation, and storage adders to manage risk while keeping the headline PPA rate attractive. These dynamics underpin resilient activity—even as solar PPA prices remain above prior‑cycle lows—because the value of reliability, price certainty, and decarbonization benefits often outweighs higher nominal costs.
DID YOU KNOW?
The amount of solar energy that reaches Earth’s surface in just 1.5 hours is enough to power all humanity’s energy consumption for an entire year.
Top 3 Takeaways
1. Are solar projects still moving forward despite weaker sentiment around renewables?
Yes. Solar development is continuing, as shown by NextEra signing 2.2 GW of new solar contracts in early 2026. Projects are still getting built, but buyers now have to accept higher prices than in the past.
2. What has changed in solar PPA pricing?
Solar PPA prices have reset higher. Prices today are roughly double their 2020 lows due to higher financing costs, equipment costs, interconnection challenges, and added risk premiums. This higher pricing now defines the average solar PPA price in 2026, especially in the commercial market.
3. Why does solar look more resilient than wind right now?
Solar remains attractive because it can be built faster, scaled more easily, and paired with battery storage to improve reliability and time-of-day value. Wind faces tougher permitting, fewer tax incentives, and more project cancellations, making solar the more dependable option even at higher PPA rates.
About Enverus Intelligence® | Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macro-economic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies, and capital providers worldwide. See additional disclosures here.
