Energy Transition

Navigating California’s Behind the Meter Revolution

byKevin Kang

Behind the meter (BTM) solar is a key factor in decreasing load in CAISO, especially in California where it has the most impact on annual demand. The state’s potential for nearly 195 GW of rooftop solar capacity exists, although its full realization is unlikely. The implementation of new building codes mandating rooftop solar installations is set to contribute around 1.5 GW per year to this growing trend. With an existing 9 GW of residential rooftop solar and annual growth of 15%-17%, the recent introduction of the Net Energy Metering (NEM) 3.0 policy is expected to shift the landscape, causing a temporary slowdown in BTM solar installations and a corresponding rise in BTM storage installations. This is due to the policy’s financial disincentives for excessive solar deployment in residential systems. 

Nevertheless, the synergy of increasing power prices and diminishing solar costs is poised to enhance the viability of BTM solar installations. By adhering to this trajectory, the prospect of reclaiming pre-NEM 3.0 levels by 2034 emerges, with a projected stable annual growth rate of 5%, leading to over 52 GW total BTM solar capacity by 2050 (Figure 1). 

Highlights from Energy Transition Research

  1. EPA’s Emissions Revisions – More Rules, Double the Methane, Triple the Tax – EIR quantifies the impact of the EPA’s proposed changes to Subpart W of the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, estimating the increase in total reported methane, overall CO2e emissions levels and IRA methane fee liabilities across U.S. sectors and basins. EIR analyzes the new emission source categories and modified calculations, focusing on the most material revisions and their potential to significantly alter the current emissions landscape in the U.S. 
  1. The Ways to Play – Energy Transition Opportunities for Upstream Participants – This report establishes a framework for how E&Ps can view and eventually participate in the energy transition. Upstream operators are increasingly exploring the energy transition, but many remain hesitant to deploy capital. Any decision, including inaction, must be well-informed and deliberate in response to growing stakeholder demands. An operator’s energy transition strategy is strongly shaped by the context of its current business, the capabilities of its assets and workforce, and most importantly its conviction in the necessity to participate in the first place. 
  1. CAISO Load Forecast – EVs Pave Way for Growth – This report assesses the impact of upcoming policy and technological advancements on power demand in California. EIR’s findings are represented in an hourly demand forecast that extends to 2050. 

Energy is changing. Connect weekly with the ideas that are leading the way. 

About Enverus Intelligence®| Research 
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macro-economic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies, and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Click here to learn more. 

Kevin Kang

Kevin Kang

As an Associate on the Power and Renewable Energy team, Kevin studied Electrical Engineering at the University of Calgary. He brings expertise on both the finance and engineering side with over two years of experience working in boutique hedge funds, venture capital firms, and major Canadian energy companies.

Subscribe to the Enverus Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Related Content

product-knowledge
Intelligence Operators
ByErin Faulkner

E&P activity targeting the Cleveland formation in the Anadarko Basin more than doubled in 2023 with 46 new wells reaching first production, compared to 20 in 2022 and similar levels the previous two years.

summer-outlook-pjm
Energy Transition
ByRyan Notacker

Renewable fuel uptake has surged in California in recent years, contributing to a 141% increase in the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit bank surplus and resulting in a drop in credit prices from ~$185/tonne to $75/tonne from 2019...

Enverus Blog - Coterra’s big Permian projects defy degradation worries
Intelligence Oilfield Services
ByJoseph Gyure, Editor, Enverus Intelligence

In the biggest oilfield services transaction since 2016, SLB agreed to acquire ChampionX Corp. for $7.76 billion in stock, bringing an industry leader in production chemicals into the OFS giant’s fold. ChampionX’s $420 million in net debt brings the transaction...

drilling-services-professional
Geoscience Analytics
ByDai Jones

Offshore drilling is a complex and multifaceted process essential for accessing oil and gas reserves beneath the seabed. Exploration drilling is the initial phase, crucial for identifying potential oil or gas reservoirs. It involves the deployment of mobile drilling units...

team
Operators
ByBryn Davies

Did you know that Enverus now has 18 offices around the world, with the most recent addition of the Brno office in Czechia

available transfer capacity
Energy Transition
ByRiley Prescott

Renewable integration has experienced a remarkable surge in Texas, with the installation of more than 9 GW of renewable capacity in 2023 alone.

minerals-management
Minerals
ByPhillip Dunning

Are you considering buying mineral rights in Texas? Before you take the next steps, familiarize yourself with the comprehensive information we've presented in this blog post.

enverus-instant-analyst-ai
Analyst Takes Generative AI
ByEnverus

The energy sector is definitely drawn to the potential of artificial intelligence (AI). The promise of making things work better and more efficiently is too tempting to ignore.

Enverus News Release - Utility growth prospects: Quantifying long and short opportunities
Analyst Takes Power and Renewables
ByRob Allerman

For much of March, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) experienced significant fluctuations in power prices due to congestion, transmission outages and bearish pricing trends in SP-15. My team used Panorama to better understand and the Power Market Publications in...

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Sign up for our Blog

Register Today

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert