Trading and Risk

How Utilities Can Mitigate Price Risk With Enverus Forecasts

byRob Allerman

Third-party power forecasts are key when ISOs provide inaccurate load projections.

 

Power market participants in the PJM, a regional transmission organization covering a large swath of the northeastern U.S., may remember Oct. 1, 2019 for the rest of their careers.

PJM power traders that relied on their local ISO for load forecasting began the fourth quarter of 2019 on the wrong foot. As a heat wave swept across the U.S., real-time prices spiked above $600/MW on Oct. 1, 2019. The ISO missed the load forecast for the day by more than 10,000 MWs. This error cost utilities millions of dollars for one day of above-average temperatures.

ENVERUS MACHINE LEARNING BASED FORECASTS ELIMINATE HUMAN ERROR

The event demonstrated the importance of consulting with third-party forecasters like the Enverus Trading & Risk PRT solution. Peak load in the PJM rose to 141% of its average level that day. Utilities depending on ISO forecasts lost millions of dollars in revenue.

Even if your utility is not based in PJM, there’s much to learn from the fateful day in which real-time prices spiked above $600/MW.

READ OUR STUDY to find out how PJM utilities would have fared if they had planned their load using our PRT forecast.

Picture of Rob Allerman

Rob Allerman

Rob Allerman is Senior Director of Power Analytics at Enverus. Before joining Enverus, Rob was Head of North America Power Analytics at EDF Power Trading in Houston, Texas, and spent many years as a power analyst at Deutsche Bank. Rob also worked in the western U.S. for nearly 10 years at Power Utilities and started his career as a Hydrologist for the Federal Government.

Subscribe to the Enverus Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Related Content
Enverus press release: Bolstering the Bakken’s twilight years
Operators
ByEnverus

Learn how leading non-op teams use data infrastructure, AFE benchmarking and portfolio analytics to improve non-operated joint venture management.

Enverus Press Release - No pain, no gain: Short-term headwinds for natural gas could bring beneficial long-term tailwinds
Minerals
ByTemi Oyetayo

Learn how reservoir engineers and consultants review automated decline curves, adjust assumptions and export defensible oil and gas forecasts.

Enverus Press Release - Seeing the ceiling: Maximizing output for today’s natural gas-fired grid
Operators
ByEnverus

Learn how operators price AFEs, why estimates can differ from actual costs, and how non-ops can use JIB benchmarks before making a consent decision.

EPC Segment PV
Generative AI Other
ByAkash Sharma

Probabilistic AI doesn't calculate — it pattern-matches. Learn why AI explainability is the standard energy teams need to trust AI adoption.

Enverus Media Advisory - Trump vs. Harris: A tale of two energy policies
Minerals
BySilas Martin

Running title leaves no room for shortcuts, but a workflow can be faster. Learn how AI helps independent landmen close more projects without changing standards.

enverus-interconnection-queue-2025
Energy Transition
ByBrynna Foley, Enverus Intelligence® Research

National Grid’s $1.75B stake in Joulent highlights greenfield gas plant economics and why JV, PPAs, and M&A beat standalone builds.

Enverus Press Release - Enverus Earns Top Workplaces Honors for Fourth Consecutive Year
Power and Renewables
ByRebekah Mitchell

The edge in renewable M&A isn't more data. It's reaching conviction faster. Here's how to build a defensible shortlist with economics behind every opportunity.

Enverus Press Release - Renewable diesel: Too much of a good thing?
Analyst Takes Trading and Risk
ByAl Salazar, Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) Contributor

Alberta West Coast oil pipeline: analysis of routes, costs, Pathways carbon capture link and trade impacts shaping Canada’s crude future.

Enverus Intelligence Research Press Release - Upstream M&A sails to $17 billion in 1Q25
Operators
ByEnverus

Data center demand is creating long‑term gas opportunities in the Permian. See how operators assess feasibility from macro trends to asset‑level supply.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Sign up for our Blog

Ready to Subscribe?

Ready to Get Started?