How Utilities Can Mitigate Price Risk With Enverus Forecasts

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Third-party power forecasts are key when ISOs provide inaccurate load projections.

 

Power market participants in the PJM, a regional transmission organization covering a large swath of the northeastern U.S., may remember Oct. 1, 2019 for the rest of their careers.

PJM power traders that relied on their local ISO for load forecasting began the fourth quarter of 2019 on the wrong foot. As a heat wave swept across the U.S., real-time prices spiked above $600/MW on Oct. 1, 2019. The ISO missed the load forecast for the day by more than 10,000 MWs. This error cost utilities millions of dollars for one day of above-average temperatures.

ENVERUS MACHINE LEARNING BASED FORECASTS ELIMINATE HUMAN ERROR

How Utilities Can Mitigate Price Risk With Enverus Forecasts

The event demonstrated the importance of consulting with third-party forecasters like the Enverus Trading & Risk PRT solution. Peak load in the PJM rose to 141% of its average level that day. Utilities depending on ISO forecasts lost millions of dollars in revenue.

Even if your utility is not based in PJM, there’s much to learn from the fateful day in which real-time prices spiked above $600/MW.

READ OUR STUDY to find out how PJM utilities would have fared if they had planned their load using our PRT forecast.

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Rob Allerman is Senior Director of Power Analytics at Enverus. Before joining Enverus, Rob was Head of North America Power Analytics at EDF Power Trading in Houston, Texas, and spent many years as a power analyst at Deutsche Bank. Rob also worked in the western U.S. for nearly 10 years at Power Utilities and started his career as a Hydrologist for the Federal Government.