The summer 4CP season is in the books—and for power traders and asset managers, every coincident peak counts. Miss the signal, and you’re paying someone else’s peak. Catch it early, and you protect margin.
Enverus nailed every single one.
Utilizing Enverus Demand Response + 4CP Alerts, we predicted all Coincident Peaks in ERCOT this summer with one-day advance notice. These results showcase the precision and reliability of our forecasting tools and analyst team, empowering customers to stay ahead in dynamic energy markets.
What Are Coincident Peaks?
A Coincident Peak (CP) is the exact hour when electricity demand across the entire ERCOT grid hits its seasonal maximum—typically lasting just a few minutes, a few times per year. ERCOT uses the top four summer CPs (June–September) to allocate capacity costs to utilities, load-serving entities (LSEs), and large commercial industrial users. Your share of the grid’s total peak demand during those tagged intervals determines your capacity obligation—and your bill—for the following year. For traders, CPs shape capacity market clearing prices, congestion patterns and virtual bidding strategies. In short: miss the hour, pay the price.
August
Enverus power forecasting solutions demonstrated exceptional performance in the ERCOT market during August 2025. Notably, on Aug. 18, the CP occurred during Hour Ending 17, and Enverus accurately identified this critical interval one day in advance.
On the same day, our day-ahead load forecast achieved a daily MAPE of 1.27%, outperforming the ISO forecast which had a MAPE of 1.73%. During peak hours (Hour Ending 7 to 22), our model delivered a MAPE of 1.17%, compared to the ISO’s 2.09%.
This strong performance reflects our consistency throughout the entire month where Enverus maintained a monthly day-ahead MAPE of 1.66%, again outperforming the ISO’s 2.20%. Even more impressively, Enverus issued again only seven alerts during the entire month, striking the ideal balance between accuracy and alert efficiency, helping customers stay informed without being overwhelmed.
September
Enverus power forecasting solutions delivered exceptional performance in the ERCOT market during September 2025. Most notably, the CP occurred Sept. 4 during Hour Ending 18, and Enverus accurately identified this period one day in advance.
Throughout September, our load forecasting model achieved a monthly day-ahead MAPE of just 1.56%, outperforming the ISO’s 1.86%.
Thanks to the precision of our model and the expertise of our analyst team, we issued only five alerts during the entire month, striking the ideal balance between accuracy and alert efficiency.
Precision That Protects Your Bottom Line
Enverus nailed ERCOT Coincident Peak in August and September. No missed signals, no surprise charges. With 4CP Alerts, power market participants can reduce demand at the critical moment, avoid costly capacity obligations, and protect margin for the entire year ahead.
This proven precision is also live in PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE. Don’t leave your costs to chance—stay ahead with Enverus.
Winter Is Coming – Are You Ready?
As the calendar flips to November, how are you preparing for the winter season and its effects on the markets? With temperatures dropping and increasing volatility due to weather events, our Power Market Analysts are ready to provide you with an in-depth analysis on our winter outlooks for the major U.S. ISOs.
About Enverus Power and Renewables
With a 15-year head start in renewables and grid intelligence, real-time grid optimization to the node, and unparalleled expertise in load forecasting that has outperformed the ISO forecasts, Enverus Power and Renewables is uniquely positioned to support all power insight needs and data driven decision making. More than 6,000 businesses, including 1,000+ in electric power markets, rely on our solutions daily.
