Energy Analytics Energy Transition

Energy Transition Today: EPA jumpstarts EV uptake

byCarson Kearl

The pace of electric vehicle (EV) adoption is hastening around the world, with China set to surpass 30% of new sales in 2023. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced its plan to significantly increase regulation on tailpipe emissions, so much so that it would require between 54%-60% of new vehicles sold in the U.S. to be electric by 2030 and 64%-67% by 2032.

This new regulation shifts away from MPG standards and targets total greenhouse gas emissions. Exceeding President Joe Biden’s goal of 50% adoption by 2030, it is slightly more aggressive than Enverus Intelligence Research’s (EIR) view on U.S. EV adoption prior to the regulation change. According to our analysis, the adoption curve required by the EPA would displace approximately 0.8 MMbbl/d of U.S. oil demand in 2030 and 1.1 MMbbl/d by 2032, which is 50 Mbbl/d and 80 Mbbl/d higher than our estimates, respectively.

FIGURE 1 | EV Adoption by Forecast Region

Source | Enverus Intelligence® Research — Energy Transition, IEA.

Figure 1 describes our view for EV adoption across five key regions that represent more than 80% of global gasoline demand today. Critical to meeting that level of demand, the supply of copper and lithium needs to grow significantly over the next decade. Key areas of investment to support the transition of the personal transportation industry include onshore battery manufacturing (including component production), charging infrastructure and securing critical mineral supply chains.

Highlights from Energy Transition Research

1. CCUS play fundamentals: Separating the winners from the losers

The Inflation Reduction Act supercharged activity along the CCUS value chain and accelerated the race to secure partnerships with emitters and landowners for CO2 storage. However, as we approach in-service dates slated for mid-decade, expectations will be tested as projects move from ideation to implementation. Amid all the hype, how can we separate the winners from the losers?

2. Electric vehicles: A call on capital

EV adoption is one of the most visible shifts associated with the energy transition, but detractors argue battery technology and supply chains cannot support a high rate of adoption. This report examines demand for key minerals and areas, particularly in mineral recycling and battery technology, where innovation is most impactful.

3. Renewables performance drivers: Design choices that matter

This report analyzes the impact of wind and solar project design decisions made by developers and quantifies the choices that result in the strongest asset performance.

Energy is changing. Connect weekly with the ideas that are leading the way.

About Enverus Intelligence®| Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters. Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Click here to learn more.

Carson Kearl

Carson Kearl

As an Analyst on the Energy Transition Research team at Enverus, Carson is the lead on data centers and advanced energy technologies. He was previously an analyst on the macro team and has additional experience advising large industrial consumers on their energy consumption. His education in economics at the University of Alberta focused on industrial organization and power markets.

Subscribe to the Enverus Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Related Content

Enverus Blog - Coterra’s big Permian projects defy degradation worries
Intelligence Oilfield Services
ByJoseph Gyure, Editor, Enverus Intelligence

In the biggest oilfield services transaction since 2016, SLB agreed to acquire ChampionX Corp. for $7.76 billion in stock, bringing an industry leader in production chemicals into the OFS giant’s fold. ChampionX’s $420 million in net debt brings the transaction...

drilling-services-professional
Geoscience Analytics
ByDai Jones

Offshore drilling is a complex and multifaceted process essential for accessing oil and gas reserves beneath the seabed. Exploration drilling is the initial phase, crucial for identifying potential oil or gas reservoirs. It involves the deployment of mobile drilling units...

team
Operators
ByBryn Davies

Did you know that Enverus now has 18 offices around the world, with the most recent addition of the Brno office in Czechia

available transfer capacity
Energy Transition
ByRiley Prescott

Renewable integration has experienced a remarkable surge in Texas, with the installation of more than 9 GW of renewable capacity in 2023 alone.

minerals-management
Minerals
ByPhillip Dunning

Are you considering buying mineral rights in Texas? Before you take the next steps, familiarize yourself with the comprehensive information we've presented in this blog post.

enverus-instant-analyst-ai
Analyst Takes Generative AI
ByEnverus

The energy sector is definitely drawn to the potential of artificial intelligence (AI). The promise of making things work better and more efficiently is too tempting to ignore.

Enverus News Release - Utility growth prospects: Quantifying long and short opportunities
Analyst Takes Power and Renewables
ByRob Allerman

For much of March, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) experienced significant fluctuations in power prices due to congestion, transmission outages and bearish pricing trends in SP-15. My team used Panorama to better understand and the Power Market Publications in...

energy-transition-group-of-professionals-meeting
Energy Transition
ByCarson Kearl

One of the most common and important questions for the power sector today is what impact artificial intelligence and the data centers needed to generate it will have on energy consumption.

taming-midstream-costs-refined-expense-accruals
Midstream
ByEnverus

Midstream is caught between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, gathering and pipeline operators, processors, storage and energy marketers face abundant opportunities and challenges when meeting customer demand.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Sign up for our Blog

Register Today

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert