Trading and Risk

Deep Learning Brings Texas-Sized Accuracy to Power Forecast

byRob Allerman

Machine learning has powered the forecasts of PRT, the Enverus power analytics platform, for more than 25 years. PRT analysts were trailblazers, using machine learning to build more accurate power forecasts in the 1990s. We have now cracked a new code in lowering MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) with deep learning, a powerful new counterpart to machine learning.

What is deep learning? Colleagues and customers ask me this question multiple times a day. I think of it as the more advanced cousin of machine learning, with stronger computing power and more granular datasets.

In February, we upgraded our power load forecast models for ERCOT, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. After upgrading our models and computing servers to handle the advancements we put into place, the Enverus power analytics team had the opportunity to hunker down and put our forecasts to work. The results have blown us away.

Many power market participants are happy to rely on ERCOT price and load forecasts, provided by the ISO (independent system operator) of the Texas power market. ISOs across the country offer their forecasts free of charge and are typically accurate enough for participants balancing their power supply and demand balances.

For most traders, however, “accurate enough” isn’t accurate enough. We’re proud to reveal our February MAPE for ERCOT, which provides a refreshing alternative to the ISO with less bias and less risk than we’ve ever had the privilege of offering.

Enverus ERCOT Power Load Forecasts Outperform the ISO Morning and Evening Peak MAPEs in February

Every dollar counts for utilities and power traders trying to grow their businesses through cost savings. For the morning peak loads throughout ERCOT in February, Enverus averaged a 2.13% MAPE, versus the ISO’s 2.5%. Here’s a closer look at the two entities’ performances.

While those morning results were extremely positive for the power analytics team, the evening results were even more exciting. The ISO’s MAPEs for the evenings tended to be much more biased than those in the mornings. For the month of February, Enverus ended with a MAPE of 1.91% for evening peaks, versus the 3.39% MAPE clocked by the ISO.

These numbers don’t just speak for themselves. We think they scream for themselves that utilities and power market participants are missing out on hundreds of millions of dollars of savings by relying on the ISO forecasts.

We want to prove to the world that our power forecasts carry less bias and less risk than ever before. We invite you to sign up for a free trial of our Enverus ISO load and power forecasts to see the difference for yourself.

Request a Free Trial

Picture of Rob Allerman

Rob Allerman

Rob Allerman is Senior Director of Power Analytics at Enverus. Before joining Enverus, Rob was Head of North America Power Analytics at EDF Power Trading in Houston, Texas, and spent many years as a power analyst at Deutsche Bank. Rob also worked in the western U.S. for nearly 10 years at Power Utilities and started his career as a Hydrologist for the Federal Government.

Subscribe to the Enverus Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Related Content

nuclear-worker
Energy Transition
ByCarson Kearl

This past week two companies in the advanced reactor space went public. Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO) and Nano Nuclear (NASDAQ: NNE) had mixed opening days, with OKLO seeing nearly a 50% price drop from open and NNE trading up well...

Enverus Press Release - Tapping Alberta’s overlooked lithium brines
Energy Transition Intelligence
ByMatthew Keillor, Editor, Enverus Intelligence

Equinor is acquiring 45% stakes in two of Standard Lithium’s direct lithium extraction (DLE) projects in the Smackover Formation in Southwest Arkansas and East Texas, less than a month after closing the book on its U.S. onshore shale operatorship.

Enverus Press Release: Beyond the horizon: US solar and storage solutions are on the rise
Power and Renewables
ByMarie Amice

Learn how Enverus Contiguous Acreage enhancement simplifies parcel discovery, making negotiations easier and projects more viable.

kid-solar-gallery
Power and Renewables
ByColton Wright

Harnessing Sunlight and Soil As the early morning light filters through the countryside, you find yourself on a quiet rural road. You’re sipping coffee and humming your favorite tune. You’re on your way to see loved ones, explore a national...

emissions-wind-women-working
Power and Renewables
ByBryan DiRenzo

In the United States, the anticipated load growth and the retirement of aging plants to meet state mandates are creating a compelling narrative for the expansion of battery storage infrastructure.

Enverus Press Release - Load impact imminent: Data center growth at the mercy of power supply constraints
Energy Transition
ByJeffery Jen

On March 25, 2024, the EPA released its final rulemaking on the update to 40 CFR Part 60 implementing its New Source Performance Standards for New, Modified and Reconstructed Fossil Fuel-Fired Electricity Generating Units.

accurate-grid-forecastin
Energy Transition Intelligence
ByMatthew Keillor, Editor, Enverus Intelligence

In March 2021, the Biden administration set a goal of deploying 30 GW of offshore wind capacity in the U.S. by 2030. These efforts have faced significant growing pains.

Enverus News Release - Defying peak oil predictions
Trading and Risk
ByEnverus

Crude and product stocks are currently at levels that suggest Brent should be ~$85/bbl.

ev-image
Energy Transition Power and Renewables
ByPrashant Kumar

The pace of electric vehicle (EV) sales growth has slowed down based on the most recent North American EV sales data.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Sign up for our Blog

Register Today

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert