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Electrifying the Permian

CALGARY, Alberta (April 30, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted generative AI and energy-dedicated SaaS company, has released a report that quantifies the potential electrification of oil and gas assets in the Permian Basin based on operators’ emissions reduction targets and its impact on grid demand, transmission flows and the generation required to serve this growing load.

“We see Far West Texas power demand more than doubling by 2040 due to electrification trends and cryptocurrency mining growth,” said Riley Prescott, senior associate at EIR. “We believe the Far West zone in ERCOT will see enough load growth to support significantly more renewable development without curtailments.”

“Within the next few years, the Far West will need a large power generation build-out to meet the forecast load growth. Without it, we expect power prices in the area will rise significantly. We believe that the low prices seen in the Far West could be disrupted by new load drivers including electrification of oil and gas assets and cryptocurrency mining growth,” Prescot said.

Key takeaways from the report:

Far West Texas power demand will more than double by 2040 because of electrification trends and cryptocurrency mining growth. With this increased load comes a need for additional generation buildout, otherwise power prices will rise significantly.
Without an increase in levels of queued generation in ERCOT’s Far West load zone, EIR expects net exports to continue to decrease. This presents an opportunity for generation within the region to expand capacity to meet peak load and export to East Texas.
Natural gas combustion, specifically compression, is the most practical emission source to electrify by connecting to the grid, as these emissions mostly come from stationary sites with long expected lives.
A fundamental shift began in 2022 as load growth increased relative to wellhead gas production. This was due to early electrification efforts in the Permian Basin and a migration of cryptocurrency mining load to Texas following China’s crackdown on miners in mid-2021.

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Intelligence® Research, Enverus Foundations ® Power & Renewables and Enverus Emissions & Regulatory Analytics.

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About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Enverus is the most trusted, generative AI and energy-dedicated SaaS company, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 98% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 35,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

Enverus News Release - The upside of repowering wind

Weather Insights for FTR Trading – Harnessing Nodal Forecasting

In the fast-paced world of energy trading, where every fluctuation in supply and demand can have significant implications, weather events wield unparalleled influence over power pricing. Natural phenomena, like sudden storms, prolonged heatwaves or even just an anomalously windy day, can disrupt energy production, alter consumption patterns and send prices soaring or plummeting at a moment’s notice. But amidst this volatility lies an opportunity – the chance to leverage advanced forecasting tools like Mid-Term Nodal Renewable Forecasting to navigate the complexities and risks of the everchanging power markets with confidence and precision.

Understanding the Impact of Weather Events

Weather events have a profound effect on power pricing for several reasons:

Let’s delve into an example of our past forecast on ERCOT wind power, temperature, and load to illustrate how Mid-Term Nodal Renewable Forecast aids users in quantifying uncertainty.

Renewable energy generation: Wind and solar power, which are key components of renewable energy production, are completely weather dependent and sensitive to weather variations. Drops in wind speed or increases in cloud cover can lead to a significant decrease in power output, while favorable conditions can result in surplus generation.
Demand fluctuations: Extreme weather conditions often coincide with spikes in energy demand as consumers crank up their heating or cooling systems. Conversely, milder weather can lead to decreased demand, impacting pricing dynamics.
Transmission constraints: Weather-related disruptions, such as fallen trees or damaged power lines, can create transmission constraints, limiting the flow of electricity between regions and causing congestion on the grid.

Leveraging Mid-Term Nodal Renewable Forecasting

Mid-Term Nodal Renewable Forecasting offers a comprehensive solution to the challenges posed by weather-related volatility. By providing an ensemble of highly granular generation and demand data, this tool empowers FTR traders to:

Understand risk: By analyzing historical weather data, numerical weather models, and machine learning algorithms, traders gain insights into potential disruptions in renewable energy generation and demand patterns, allowing them to assess risk and adjust their strategies to hedge against high- risk events.
Identify opportunities: With forecasts spanning up to 15 months, traders can track market-level trends in wind and solar production, identify emerging trading opportunities, and optimize their FTR auction strategies.
Navigate congestion: By digging down to the farm, balancing authority, state, and regional levels, traders can gain high-level congestion insights, compare different areas of interest, and estimate potential congestion and curtailment scenarios.

ercot-system-wide-wind-vs-forecast-production-graph

Through 100 simulations of possible weather scenarios, our forecast provides the probability of wind power generation and load reaching specific megawatt levels within each hour over the next 120 days. This probability is shown in shaded bands. The blue line represents the actual outcomes, which consistently fall within our uncertainty envelope, affirming the accuracy of our forecasts. The 100 simulations enable us to analyze probabilities of high and low wind generation hours during a month, along with the corresponding load hence the net demand, which we can directly correlate with pricing signals.

nordal-wind-hourly-distribution-april-2024-forecast

ercot-wind-on-peak-differential-trends-graph

The Mid-term Nodal Renewable Forecast extends its precision to smaller areas, including the farm-level, employing the same 100 simulations of potential weather scenarios. This granularity enables users to attain more localized insights. At the farm level, we can look at both time series views and generation distributions across the month. The above figure (left) displays a histogram of wind production for a single farm (Ajax Wind AKA Western Trail Wind). We can dig even deeper with the Mid-Term Nodal Renewable Forecast data and look at how renewable generation distributions change from on/off peak hours and change over months and identify regions where renewable generation is rapidly expanding (see right figure).

With these forecasts, users can gain a better understanding of uncertainty of renewable generation from the ISO level down to the farm-level for the next 120 days. With this stronger understanding of uncertainty, users can more confidently identify which nodes and regions of the ISOs are likely to be impacted by congestion and position their trades and assets accordingly. The Mid-Term Nodal Renewable Forecast provides a unique sense for FTR traders to examine the market from a probabilistic lens.

In an industry where uncertainty is the only constant, the need for accurate and reliable forecasting tools has never been greater. Mid-Term Nodal Renewable Forecasting offers FTR traders a competitive edge in the face of weather-related volatility, allowing them to make informed decisions, navigate the intricacies of the market and unlock new opportunities for growth and success. As the energy landscape continues to evolve, those who embrace the power of advanced probabilistic forecasting will emerge as leaders in the field, shaping the future of power trading for years to come.

Enverus Press Release - Enverus selected for NET Power’s commercial initiative

Broad Reach, Longroad & Arevon climb gigawatt rankings

U.S. renewables developers Arevon Energy, Longroad Energy Holdings and Broad Reach Power showed the most improvement among the top 20 wholly owned renewable energy portfolios under construction in Q1, according to an analysis using Enverus Core data presented in the most recent issue of Energy Transition Pulse. All three companies roughly cut their ranks in half on the top 50 leaderboard, with more than 2 GW of combined project additions breaking ground.
The lion’s share of those capacity additions were attributable to Broad Reach, which moved up to the sixth spot by adding eight projects under construction in Q1 with over 1.2 GW of capacity. All eight of those projects are battery energy storage systems in Texas with capacities ranging 9.9-255 MW. Paris-based utility Engie agreed last year to acquire Broad Reach, excluding the firm’s solar and wind projects and 4 GWh of Western U.S. BESS capacity. The rest of Engie North America came in at rank 39 with three projects under construction for a combined 414 MW.

Arevon, which has been busy financing numerous projects in recent months, broke ground on four renewable energy facilities with combined capacity of 358 MW, enough for the company to move up to the 15th spot. One of its projects under construction, the 200 MW/800 MWh Condor BESS facility in California, was part of Arevon’s recent wave of financing. The company secured $350 million for Condor with a preferred equity investment from Blackstone Credit & Insurance, a commitment to buy investment tax credits from Stifel Financial Group and a $164 million debt facility from a syndicate of lenders.

Longroad Energy Holdings broke ground on 434 MW of capacity in Q1, which was enough to move it up to the ninth spot. Serrano, Longroad’s fourth project in Arizona, consists of a 220 MWdc solar farm and 214 MWac BESS component. Commercial operations are expected to begin by mid-2025, and output will be purchased by Arizona Public Service under a long-term power purchase contract.

To see the full leaderboard of the Top 50 renewables portfolios under construction and other renewable energy metrics, check out the latest issue of Energy Transition Pulse.

About Enverus Intelligence Publications
Enverus Intelligence Publications presents the news as it happens with impactful, concise articles, cutting through the clutter to deliver timely perspectives and insights on various topics from writers who provide deep context to the energy sector.

5 Power & Renewable Trends to Know Before CLEANPOWER 2024

Renewable energy adoption continues to rise, signaling a promising shift towards sustainable power sources. Industry challenges persist, from grid operation perspectives to new regulatory policies and supply chain constraints. To stay on top of the latest developments in this area, you should attend CLEANPOWER 2024. Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) identifies five key trends you should know before attending this year’s CLEANPOWER to give you an added advantage.

From solar power to energy storage innovations and transportation electrification, these trends are shaping the future of renewable energy.

Data Center Demand

The last twelve months have brought a new driver for load growth, besides heat electrification and EVs. The rise of AI and LLM has sparked a competitive race to expand data center capacity (https://www.enverus.com/blog/energy-transition-today-deciphering-data-center-demand/), which is essential for accommodating AI’s rapid growth. As this expansion occurs, the energy demand will also surge. Data center developers will seek reliable energy from sustainable sources to power their facilities. The optimal siting of data centers depends on connectivity and energy reliability.

You can learn more about EIR’s estimates of this growth and opportunities for power developers from Enverus Foundations – Power & Renewables , traders from Panorama and Energy Transition Research published report series.

Transmission From Generation to End-Users

Transmission is crucial for bringing new renewable generation and large loads online. Building new long-distance transmission is even more challenging because of permitting barriers, payment regulations and interregional planning. The DOE, Grid Unites, IBEW and Invenergy will discuss developers experiences and the vision of the Grid Deployment Office during “Not Just Lines on a Map: Moving Transmission Forward.”

Energy Storage Solutions

The intermittent nature of solar and wind energy requires energy storage to ensure reliability and stability. EIR analyzed that ERCOT’s grid-scale batteries operating strategy impacts profitability more than size and even location. An approach that combines several ancillary services and some energy arbitrage leans toward having higher profitability. However, EIR has also written about how they expect this to change as growing storage capacity saturates the ancillary services markets in the report, “Texas Grid Storage Gold Rush | Keys to Unlocking Profitability.”

Interconnection Queue Post Inflation Reduction Act

Since implementing the IRA, interconnection queues have been overwhelmed, creating a challenge for developers to prioritize and de-risk their project portfolios. With the help of Project Tracking Analytics, the EIR analyst team notes that only 35% of projects in the queue today will have a 70%+ probability of commercial success. Being able to identify projects with the highest likelihood of success is no easy task, considering different factors influence every ISO.

Offshore Wind Challenges

U.S. offshore wind projects faced many challenges and cancellations in 2023 due to high-interest rates and supply chain backlogs. Is the industry poised to rebound? You will learn more about microeconomics and government response in the panel, “Offshore Wind: Sustainable Commercial Framework” with representatives from Orsted and Avangrid.

In conclusion, CLEANPOWER offers a valuable space for industry stakeholders to exchange knowledge, network and collaborate towards advancing renewable energy. By familiarizing oneself with the key trends outlined above, attendees can gain deeper insights into the renewable energy landscape’s current state and future direction. The renewable energy sector continues to evolve rapidly, driving towards a more sustainable and resilient energy future.

Join us at CLEANPOWER

About Enverus Intelligence®| Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. https://www.enverus.com/disclosures/

2024 races to a record start with $51B in upstream M&A

CALGARY, Alberta (April 23, 2024) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted generative AI and energy-dedicated SaaS company, is releasing its summary of 1Q24 upstream M&A activity. Following last year’s blockbuster $192 billion in U.S. upstream consolidation, 1Q24 would be on track to surpass that record with $51 billion in announced deals. However, EIR is pumping the brakes on another record-setting year as deal activity has slowed significantly in March and Q2 appears to have already lost momentum.

“Deals at the start of 2024 were driven by the same factors that led to last year’s marathon of mergers, foremost among them a desire to lock up high-quality inventory when it is available,” said Andrew Dittmar, principal analyst at EIR. “Most of that inventory is going to be found in the Permian, so it is unsurprising the prolific basin was yet again the primary driver for M&A within oil and gas.”

Headlining consolidation in Q1 was privately held Endeavor Energy Resources’ sale to publicly held Diamondback Energy. The $26 billion buyout was the largest sale of a private company Enverus has tracked. Outmaneuvering larger rivals to secure Endeavor puts Diamondback in the front row among Permian-centric E&Ps, giving it a scale comparable to Pioneer Natural Resources prior to its sale to ExxonMobil. APA also expanded in the Permian, but via the public merger route with its purchase of smaller Callon Petroleum for $4.5 billion. The acquisition significantly expands APA’s shale inventory, which previously lagged its peers as the company had balanced U.S. and international development. Those two deals, plus a few smaller bolt-on acquisitions, gave the Permian a 60% share of total transacted upstream value.

“Endeavor was a unique opportunity to acquire a legacy family-owned E&P with leases in the core of the Midland Basin acquired decades before Diamondback, or many of the other familiar shale names, were even in business,” said Dittmar. “There are a handful of other private family companies like Mewbourne Oil and Fasken Oil & Ranch that would similarly be highly sought after if they entertained offers to sell. However, there are no indications these closely held companies are looking to exit any time soon. That leaves public E&Ps looking to scoop up the increasingly thin list of private E&Ps backed by institutional capital and built with a sale in mind — or figuring out ways to merge with each other.”

Continued public company consolidation does look to be the most likely route to keep M&A markets on track, both in the Permian and other plays. The Haynesville saw significant consolidation with the merger of Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy. Unlike most other public deals that were focused on extending the years of high-quality inventory, that transaction didn’t necessarily improve Chesapeake’s years of inventory life at the combined rig count but did substantially boost its exposure to the Haynesville and opportunity to capture premium gas prices from burgeoning LNG exports starting in 2025.

The Chesapeake deal is also one of several that is being subjected to additional scrutiny from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), along with Exxon’s purchase of Pioneer and Chevron’s acquisition of Hess.

“The heightened review is a function both of an FTC that is increasingly active in anti-trust enforcement and a growing concentration of ownership of the key U.S. unconventional plays,” said Dittmar. “Ultimately, the most likely outcome is all these deals get approved but federal regulatory oversight may pose a headwind to additional consolidation within a single play. That may force buyers to broaden their focus by acquiring assets in multiple plays.”

Beyond just concerns about regulatory review, companies are likely to be looking beyond the Permian for M&A opportunities because of both higher fragmentation in other plays and lower prices. The Eagle Ford and SCOOP | STACK are two plays with proportionally higher ownership by private equity-backed E&Ps likely to welcome an offer to be acquired by a public company. Both plays are also interesting from a commodity diversification perspective, with a mix of oil and gas production and an opportunity to capitalize on an eventual gas price recovery. The Eagle Ford has a gas window well positioned to supply Gulf Coast LNG projects, albeit with a smaller total resource base relative to the Haynesville.

Assets on the Gulf Coast, whether in the Eagle Ford or Haynesville, could also see a further influx of interest from buyers based outside the U.S. Already, these plays have seen major acquisitions by Canada’s Baytex Energy, United Kingdom-based INEOS and Japan’s Tokyo Gas, as well as a smaller non-operated purchase by Total.

“BP would be a potential candidate to expand in either the Haynesville or the Eagle Ford,” said Dittmar. “The company has maintained a presence in both plays and could look to boost U.S. unconventional exposure to keep pace with U.S. peers Exxon and Chevron.”

The last piece of the evolving M&A landscape is private companies taking the opportunity to reload portfolios after heavy selling to public E&Ps. Traditionally a wave of corporate consolidation like the market has recently seen would lead to a surge of non-core sales as companies combed through combined portfolios to sell assets not slated for near-term development. However, with balance sheets healthy and inventory at a premium, non-core sales may be minimal.

“Opportunities are still there for private equity, but they may need to get more creative,” said Dittmar. “That could include exploring more secondary targets like deep intervals in the Permian or pushing into areas like the Central Basin Platform. Ultimately, that is good for the industry, as private equity with a higher tolerance for risk compared to public companies has played a key role in finding additional resource. That is something we will need as the core shale plays continue to mature.”

View Report Here

You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS platform, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 98% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 35,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

5 reasons to attend the Enverus EVOLVE 2024 Conference

Have you heard? The Enverus EVOLVE Conference, the pivotal event for energy professionals, thought leaders and experts, to come together, trade ideas and gain new knowledge, is happening May 7 – 9 in downtown Houston at the Marriott Marquis.

With eight different topic tracks, 65+ sessions and more than 130 speakers, the EVOLVE Conference promises networking and learning opportunities for industry players across the spectrum of oil, gas, renewables and emerging technology to gain unique insights and valuable information on pressing issues, transformative industry and technology trends, and future opportunities across the globe. If you haven’t registered yet and want to know what’s in store, here are five reasons you don’t want to miss this year’s Enverus EVOLVE Conference.

1. Learn how your peers are solving big problems

Energy businesses are always looking for an edge, whether tweaking development plans or automating certain processes to save time and reduce errors. Knowing what others are doing to solve similar problems is a big part of this. With a growing global population and calls for decarbonization, collaboration across energy is now more critical than ever. Why? Delivering this essential resource so that future generations may flourish requires all of us to continue the vital work we all do each day and drive the advancements that will expand our energy supply.

This year’s conference features 75 Enverus customer speakers from E&P, OFS, midstream, power and utilities, trading and investment firms, speaking in sessions across a broad range of topics. You’ll have the opportunity to hear from C-Suite executives, engineers, accounting and finance, supply chain, data scientists and more about how they are solving their biggest challenges.

Check out the video from Travis Bolt, director of Frac Technology at NOV on why he values his time at EVOLVE.

2. Prescriptive, actionable market insights from Enverus Intelligence analysts

If you didn’t know, Enverus doesn’t just provide software that helps our customers make wise business decisions. We have an entire team of industry analysts who hail from various backgrounds of expertise beyond just finance, like geology, petroleum engineering and economics. These analysts are the Enverus Intelligence Research team and they advise our customers, from Wall Street to the oilpatch, with prescriptive actionable advice.

This year, the team is hosting a macro track that sets the stage for the industry, including the impact of supply and demand outlooks, key geopolitical events and investment trends.

Key sessions include:

Evolving Regulations: Estimating the Impact of Policy and Regulation on Energy Economics and M&A
The Investor Mindset: Evaluating Sentiment Trends in E&P Equities
Natural Gas Long-Term Outlook: 3 Themes to 2030
Crude Oil Long-Term Outlook: Testing Peak Demand

These sessions are open to everyone live at the conference but will be unavailable to non-intelligence customers after EVOLVE. If you’ve been looking for solid macro read-outs, don’t miss this chance!

3. An entire track dedicated to generative AI

Gen AI (what the cool kids call generative artificial intelligence) is everywhere. So, how much do you know about it? When you are sorting through the ins and outs of day-to-day work, it can be hard to step away to learn about new things affecting your job. And believe us, gen AI is affecting everyone’s job.

With an entire track dedicated to this emerging technology (that is not only affecting your job but also the overall forecasted energy demand), the Enverus EVOLVE Conference offers the perfect opportunity for you to get out of the office and immerse yourself in new knowledge. Not only will you walk away being able to speak knowledgeably about gen AI – but you might also learn an idea or two to take back to your boss on how your company can leverage gen AI to become more effective. And who doesn’t like to look good in front of their boss?

4. You will learn something (ok, probably several things) you didn’t know

The broader EVOLVE agenda has an insane selection of industry thought leaders covering some of the most pressing energy topics. Curious how other companies are using AI in their businesses to reshape strategy? Join the panel session “AI/ML in Action: Case Studies from the Intersection of AI and Energy,” where panelists from Shell, PWC, Total Energies, SLB and the World Economic Forum will discuss applications of AI in energy.

Want to dive deep into alternative energy resources powering the oilfield? The session, “Nuclear Oilfield: Small and Micro Nuclear Power Generation and Oilfield Electrification,” features experts discussing possibilities. The session, “Blackouts and Blac Gold: The Struggle for Electricity in U.S. Oil Field Operations,” will discuss the rock and a hard place of reducing emissions by going electric on an electrical grid already strained by consumer demand. With more than 65 sessions and 130+ speakers, including several Enverus customers talking about their success, it’s guaranteed you will walk away with new actionable knowledge to put into practice in your own energy career.

There are a total of eight track options, including:

Macro and Markets: Gain insight into the impact of supply and demand outlooks, key geopolitical events and investment trends on the energy industry.
Asset Optimization: Deep dive into statistical analysis and case studies that illuminate best practices in the operation of oil, gas and power-generating assets.
Carbon Innovation: Learn about transformative decarbonization investment opportunities most adjacent to the oil and gas value chain, including subsurface innovation technologies like carbon capture and sequestration, direct lithium extraction and low-carbon fuels like hydrogen.
Electrification: Hear about transformative technology shaping the future energy landscape, exploring the shift from molecules to electrons, and the implications for consumer behavior, the power grid and oil and gas.
AI for Energy: Explore the impact of this transformative technology on the energy industry. How are energy operators and investors currently leveraging generative AI to accelerate business results, what will be the impact on labor markets and consumer prices, and how should companies think about incorporating this technology into their daily workflows?
Operational Spend Visibility: Increase your capital and operating efficiency! This track examines the crucial ingredients for energy companies to successfully gain visibility into spend and automate their procure-to-pay process from beginning to end.
Realizing the Smart Contract: Get your spending under control. It is possible! Dive deep into using the smart contract to prevent overspending and collaborate with your suppliers.
Trading & Risk: Learn about transformative trends shaping the macroeconomic environment that directly influence energy trading and risk management.

Check out the full EVOLVE agenda here.

5. The SPARK Conference is now part of the EVOLVE Conference

We consider ourselves extremely fortunate to have a loyal, enthusiastic group of business automation customers that have joined us for our annual SPARK Conference year after year. The conference started as the Annual User Group in 2004 and a few years ago was rebranded to SPARK. And while the energy industry is complex, with several moving parts, it can also feel like a small world, especially in the accounting, finance, operations and supply chain groups that attend SPARK every year. It almost feels like a “work family” reunion, and the focus of the conference is to discuss best practices using Enverus source-to-pay software solutions that help our customers gain efficiency, both in cost and process management, and have conversations on how Enverus can make our products even better to serve the unique operational needs of energy businesses. This year, the SPARK Conference is merging into the larger EVOLVE Conference and not only can we not wait to see our amazing Business Automation customers again for great collaborative discussions, we are excited for them to gain larger exposure to the information and connections they will have the opportunity to make while at EVOLVE.

Check out this video of Mike Bechtel, Director of Operations Accounting at Chesapeake Energy, discussing why he and his team never miss a SPARK Conference.

We hope this article convinces you to join us at the EVOLVE Conference. Whatever your role, you will come away equipped with new knowledge and perspectives to maintain focus and achieve success, while making valuable new connections with your peers. Our shared mission, to power the global quality of life by providing access to affordable energy, is a big responsibility, requiring new advancements to meet growing energy needs. The EVOLVE Conference is the place to come together, spark conversations, and come away with new ideas that will help us navigate this journey…and have fun along the way.

Navigating Europe’s Energy Transformation

Europe’s energy market is weathering a storm of transformations. With natural gas inventory at peak levels thanks to a diversified supply chain and falling prices, traders and analysts face an evolving challenge unlike any other. Amid this flux, Enverus’s MarketView^® emerges as a pivotal tool, tailored with 122 fresh gas, power and energy transition products for the European sector, enabling professionals to steer through the tumultuous market with finesse.

The Complexity of Supply Dynamics

Consider the present scenario where Europe’s gas storage brims at 59%, a figure set to rise. With MarketView, tracing past instances of similar storage peaks against market responses can arm traders with predictive insights, granting them a sharper edge in forecasting future trends. Fueled by insights from brokers, exchanges, transmission system operators (TSOs) and third-party sources, it is a veritable gold mine of information. Imagine being able to pull apart 10 years of hourly data for over 65,000 points or zoom into a single point of interest. For traders, this level of detail is not just beneficial – it’s essential.

Proactive Strategies in a Dynamic Market

As Europe diversifies its energy supply, moving away from Russian dependency towards Norwegian and U.S. imports, market waters become murkier. Here, MarketView shines by stitching together a nuanced picture of the market from its myriad data sources. Whether it’s pinpointing the impact of increased LNG imports on prices or dissecting the nuances of supply shifts, MarketView equips users with the clarity needed to navigate through these complexities.

Actionable Intelligence at Your Fingertips

In an environment where a surge in LNG imports might topple prices overnight, being the first to know can define market success. MarketView’s Actionable API sets it apart, transforming data into direct, actionable insights. This API doesn’t just update; it alerts, ensuring traders are always a step ahead, ready to pivot strategies in real time, amidst the market’s ebb and flow.

Navigating the European Energy Market With MarketView

Facing down the ongoing energy crisis, with its unpredictable supply dynamics and historically high gas storage figures, the importance of a robust, insightful platform becomes undeniably clear. MarketView stands out as this essential navigation tool, providing depth, agility and foresight in Europe’s unpredictable energy markets.

For traders and analysts who want to not just survive but thrive within the current energy landscape, incorporating MarketView into their strategy offers a way forward. It lights up pathways to sound decision-making and strategic advantage in the chaotic European market.

Powering the Digital Age | Data Centers and Energy

Questions around the relationship of data centers to energy demand are very quickly etching themselves onto the minds of industry and technology participants alike. Recent analysis from Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) forecasting Lower 48 and regional data center demand highlight some of the complexities of finding ideal traits such as connectivity to fiber networks, reliability and less critically, affordability of power supply. We see a growth floor near the fastest pre-AI period of deployment, while the dominant constraint is access to reliable power capacity.

Industry participants looking to build these facilities are running into a wall of regulated utilities who simply cannot guarantee the scale and reliability of supply they require. Hyperscale users are forming partnerships and making investments in the geothermal and advanced nuclear industries. Amazon, Microsoft and Google with are all leaning into these technologies and their ability to serve carbon free baseload electricity that meets the reliability requirements of their facilities. In the meantime, existing underutilized gas-fired and nuclear power plants will be targets for deployment opportunities.

Highlights From Energy Transition Research

(You must be an Enverus Intelligence® Research subscriber to access links below.)

Data Center Demand | Load Impact Imminent – Dig into a Lower 48-level view on expected growth in data center capacity and associated power demand.

Fusion Insights | Data Center Load Growth: Marrying Load to the Interconnection Queue – This Prism Signal leverages EIR’s proprietary large-load project tracking dataset to identify the regions exposed to the most load growth as a result of data center expansion.

Tracking the ET Market | Improving Multiples in a Lower Cost of Capital Environment – The 4Q23 edition of the Energy Transition Research team’s equity tracking report provides coverage across various energy transition sectors as well as integrated traditional energy businesses.

ISO Solar Market Screening

The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) serves as a valuable measure for assessing the economic viability of a specific project or energy source. Put simply, a lower LCOE suggests that a project is more efficient in generating electricity. This metric is primarily influenced by three main factors: initial capital investment, ongoing operational expenses and the total electricity output throughout the asset’s lifespan.
As depicted in Figure 1, most regions exhibit after-tax LCOEs ranging from $30 to $40 per megawatt-hour (MWh), with the exception of NYISO. In NYISO, LCOEs are comparatively less competitive due to higher expenses and reduced capacity factors, stemming from a lower-quality solar resource.

Highlights from Energy Transition Research

(You must be an Enverus Intelligence® Research subscriber to access links below.)

Fusion Insights | Data Center Load Growth: Marrying Load to the Interconnection Queue– This Prism Signal leverages Enverus Intelligence Research’s proprietary large-load project tracking dataset to identify the regions exposed to the most load growth due to data center expansion.

Data Center Demand | Load Impact Imminent– This publication offers a Lower 48-level view on expected growth in data center capacity and associated power demand.

Enverus Press Release - Enverus adds Energy Transition solutions around $3.5T/year sector

Predicting the 630__B Constraint With Transmission Impacts in ERCOT

Over the last seven days, the Enverus Power and Renewables forecast has accurately predicted the 630__B constraint (KLNSW-HHSTH 138 kV with contingency DSALKLN5) in ERCOT. This major constraint near the town of Killeen, TX had the second highest total congestion shadow price, a major component of ERCOT prices, more than $13,000 in total congestion last week. While this congestion is fundamentally driven by high wind and solar generation, there were two transmission outages responsible for increasing flow on the constraint by 50%, while other longer term transmission outages also had a smaller impact on the same constraint.

In the screenshot below, the purple shading in the first chart reflects the P&R forecasted RT congestion, while the red shading represents the actual RT shadow prices. Data to the left of the middle gray dotted vertical line represents our RT MUSE constraint flow along with our forecasted constraint flow, while data to the right of that same vertical line represents the future forecast of constraints flows and forecasted shadow prices (purple).

While most of the predicted hours produced shadow prices on this constraint, the RT shadow prices came in below forecast on 4/13 as the transmission outage driving this congestion ended four days ahead of schedule during HE 21 on 4/12. The historical forecast shown on the screen for each operating day was created as of 4 a.m. of the prior day.

Monday and Tuesday (4/15 and 4/16) are currently not predicted to have any binding shadow prices of this constraint, however forecasted flows remain extremely close to the transmission limit. On Thursday, April 18, new outages similar to the prior week will begin at 7 a.m. and remain out for the following 10 days, with strong shadow prices forecast for Thursday (4/18), Friday morning (4/19), and Saturday midday (4/20). This constraint drives upside to the South Hub and Load Zone, as well as the AEN, CPS, and LCRA Load Zones, while adding downside pricing to the West Hub and Load Zone. (see shift factors below)

Please reach out if you have any questions or if you would like a demo of the ERCOT Power and Renewables Forecast and MUSE.