The report evaluates why the transition from 415 volts alternating current (VAC) to 800 volts direct current (VDC) inside AI data centers is becoming necessary as next-generation AI chips and rack architectures push power density beyond what legacy distribution systems were designed to support. EIR notes that AI rack power density is already moving past 100 kW per rack and is headed toward substantially higher levels, making lower-voltage distribution increasingly impractical because of current, copper and space constraints.
According to EIR, new AI platform designs specifying 800 VDC are accelerating the need for data center power architectures that can support higher-density racks, liquid cooling and more efficient power delivery from the facility edge to compute. The resulting economic benefits are material: EIR estimates 800 VDC distribution can reduce electrical capex by 13%, lift end-to-end facility efficiency by 14 percentage points, from 79.8% to 93.8%, and reduce copper mass by up to 60% per MW compared with legacy 415 VAC architecture.
EIR also finds that once 800 VDC becomes the backbone for higher-density AI campuses, the architecture can extend beyond the data center itself. When paired with DC-coupled behind-the-meter solar, battery storage and fuel cells, EIR estimates a combined 10-year value stack of $1.63 billion per 1-GW campus, including $440 million tied to eliminating AC-path conversion losses.
“Next-generation AI chips are forcing a rethink of data center power architecture. At the rack densities now coming into view, 800 VDC is less about chasing incremental savings and more about making the next phase of AI infrastructure physically and electrically workable,” said report author and senior EIR analyst Carson Kearl.
Key takeaways:
New AI chip and rack designs are pushing power density beyond the practical limits of legacy lower-voltage data center distribution systems.
EIR says 800 VDC is emerging as the required architecture for next-generation AI racks because it can move much higher power with less current, less copper and less physical space.
EIR estimates 800 VDC distribution cuts electrical capex 13% versus 415 VAC architecture, but the report frames those savings as an outcome of solving the power-density challenge.
End-to-end facility efficiency rises 14 percentage points, from 79.8% to 93.8%, under EIR’s modeled architecture, as 800 VDC eliminates multiple conversion stages.
Copper mass falls by up to 60% per MW, helping make higher-density AI rack designs physically and economically feasible.
FIGURE 2 | Conversion Stack 800 VDC Elimiates Two Loss Stages
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE.
You must be an Enverus Intelligence® Research subscriber to access this report.
EIR research reports cannot be distributed to members of the media without a scheduled interview. Journalists interested in learning more about this analysis are encouraged to use our Request Media Interview button to schedule a time to meet with one of our expert analysts, who can provide context, insight, and deeper discussion of the findings.
About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
On June 10th, Black Hills Corp. (BHK) confirmed Crusoe is out of Project Jade, a 1.8GW data center campus in Cheyenne, Wyoming. BHK will now develop directly with an undisclosed large-load customer, which has already committed over $200M toward construction milestones. Tallgrass Energy, which is building the adjacent 2.7GW Cheyenne Power Hub that will feed the campus, reported Crusoe exited months before any public announcement.
Crusoe, the Denver-based AI infrastructure company that built its brand on stranded gas-to-compute, now faces questions about project execution. The broader grid challenge here is figuring out which loads will materialize and how. EIR’s ERCOT Large Load | Batch Zero Readiness report demonstrates the kind of project-level distinction that matters across all markets. Built across 12 key signals, it goes beyond a simple viable/not-viable split, identifying which projects are positioned for expedited interconnection and which will route through BTM or later batches. As tracked in EIR’s Long-Term Load Forecast, load growth continues to outpace infrastructure, making that distinction increasingly consequential for investors and developers assessing queue risk. A FERC announcement expected June 18th on large-load interconnection cost allocation may bring some clarity. Until a framework is finalized, the gap between announced capacity and delivered load remains one of the most consequential unknowns in power markets today.
DID YOU KNOW?
Wyoming has about 10.8GW of net summer capacity. At full scale, Project Jade could reach 10 GW – nearly matching the state’s total capacity.
Research Highlights:
2026 Electric Vehicle Forecast | Market Cooldown: This report updates EIR’s U.S. EV outlook relative to our previous projection. It sits within EIR’s Long-Term Load Forecast, which analyzes multiple load drivers across the L48. It covers EV sales, charging profiles, and regional adoption.
Capturing the Cost 2.0 | 85% Out of Reach: We analyze what sets the price of a federal geothermal lease, and which operators are likely to bid. Prices and expected bidders are then estimated for this year’s New Mexico and Idaho sales.
About Enverus Intelligence® | Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macro-economic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies, and capital providers worldwide. See additional disclosures here.
CALGARY, Alberta (June 23, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has released its latest electric vehicle (EV) forecast that includes findings that recent federal policy changes and slowing consumer adoption have significantly delayed the pace of adoption across the United States.
The report revises EIR’s forecast for U.S. EV fleet penetration in 2035 to 8.1%, down from a prior estimate of 20%, while lowering projected 2030 penetration to 4.5% from 12%. The revision pushes the anticipated displacement of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles back by approximately three years, with the market transition now expected to accelerate between 2028 and 2033.
The report attributes much of the slowdown to the expiration of the federal $7,500 new EV tax credit and $4,000 used EV tax credit in September 2025, which disproportionately affected mass-market consumers and widened adoption differences between states with supportive EV policies and those without.
“Our long-term view on the U.S. EV transition remains positive, but we expect slower growth through the end of the decade,” said Thomas Mulvihill, report author and associate at EIR. “The elimination of federal tax credits, combined with ongoing affordability and infrastructure challenges, has materially altered the EV adoption curve. Utilities, grid operators and fuel market participants now have additional time to recalibrate planning assumptions.”
“Our analysis suggests the market is experiencing a temporary cooling period rather than a reversal,” Mulvihill added. “The combination of declining used EV prices, broader model availability and continued charging network improvements should support long-term growth, even as near-term adoption slows.”
According to the report, Colorado and California remain the nation’s EV leaders, while Florida stands out as a notable exception among non-mandate states due to its large vehicle population, household income profile and strong EV adoption in major metropolitan areas.
Key takeaways:
EV adoption forecast significantly reduced: EIR now projects 8.1% EV fleet penetration by 2035, compared with 20% in its previous outlook.
Regional adoption gap widens: States with zero-emission vehicle mandates and state-level incentives including California, Colorado, Washington and New Jersey continue to lead adoption, while much of the Southeast, Midwest and Mountain West lag behind.
Grid load growth delayed: Annual EV charging demand is expected to reach approximately 17 TWh by 2030 and 47 TWh by 2035, reducing near-term pressure on utilities and transmission planners.
Smart charging emerges as a critical factor: By 2035, EIR expects roughly 90% of EV charging to be price-responsive, helping flatten load profiles and improve grid integration.
Gasoline demand remains resilient: The slower adoption trajectory supports a larger ICE vehicle fleet through the next decade, providing a more constructive outlook for gasoline demand and refinery utilization than previously anticipated.
FIGURE 3 | EV vs. ICE Share of Total Fleet
Source | Enverus Intelligence® Research
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE.
You must be an Enverus Intelligence® Research subscriber to access this report.
EIR research reports cannot be distributed to members of the media without a scheduled interview. Journalists interested in learning more about this analysis are encouraged to use our Request Media Interview button to schedule a time to meet with one of our expert analysts, who can provide context, insight, and deeper discussion of the findings.
About Enverus Intelligence® Research Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
This is the sixth installment in our series of blog articles dealing with source-to-pay and upstream oil and gas. Read the previous blog here.
For finance leaders in upstream oil and gas, invoice accuracy has long been the standard of success. If invoices are matched, coded correctly, and processed without exception, the assumption is that financial control is working. That assumption is understandable. Accuracy matters, of course. It protects against overbilling, prevents duplicate payments, and keeps the books clean.
But accuracy, on its own, is not insight. And the distinction is starting to matter a great deal in upstream oil and gas.
Knowing that an invoice was correct tells you that the transaction was processed the way it was supposed to be. What it doesn’t tell you is whether the price should have been lower, or if spend is concentrating in a way that creates operational risk. It also doesn’t tell you whether the savings negotiated in the contract are actually being realized in payment. Those questions require something different. They require spend intelligence, not just accuracy.
This is the shift that the most forward-looking finance organizations in oil and gas are beginning to make.
Invoice accuracy tells you a transaction was processed correctly. Spend intelligence tells you whether the right outcome was achieved across the full source-to-pay lifecycle.
Key takeaways:
What is the difference between invoice accuracy and spend intelligence?
Accuracy confirms that a transaction was processed correctly. Intelligence reveals whether the right commercial outcomes were achieved across sourcing, contracting, and payment.
Why does the gap between the two matter to finance leadership?
Because value is often lost not through inaccurate invoices, but through disconnected systems that prevent contract terms, pricing trends, and spend patterns from being visible together.
How does an S2P platform close that gap?
By connecting sourcing, contracting, field execution, and invoicing in a single environment where the data can be analyzed together and surfaced as actionable intelligence.
The Accuracy Gap
Most AP teams have built real discipline around accuracy. Matching logic, workflow rules, price book compliance, exception-based review, automated dispute—these capabilities have matured substantially over the past decade, and the results are real. Less manual review, faster cycle times, fewer errors getting through. In case you’re interested in how we’ve tackled each of these challenges, you can read more about that here.
What those capabilities were designed to do, though, is verify that a transaction conforms to what was already agreed. They answer the question: is this right? But they aren’t designed to answer: is this the best outcome we could have achieved? Or: what does this transaction, combined with the thousands of others flowing through the platform, actually tell us about how we are spending?
That second set of questions is where spend intelligence begins. And it is also where most organizations still have a significant gap.
The gap is not a failure of effort or execution. It is largely structural. When invoice accuracy and spend analysis live in different systems, managed by different teams on different timelines, the connections that would generate real insight do not form naturally. Finance sees the transactions. Procurement sees the contracts. Supply chain sees the activity. And because the data lives in different places, no one has a clean view of the full picture.
What Gets Left Behind
Consider a few patterns that show up consistently across oil and gas operators when the data is eventually connected.
Early payment discount terms that were negotiated into MSAs but never activated in the payment workflow. The terms might have been agreed on and the contracts in place, but because the contract system and the invoice system were not connected, the discount was never applied. Those dollars stayed on the table for months, sometimes years, before anyone noticed.
We could also extend this problem to pricing volatility on line-items that had no price book. Because there was no structured agreement, the same type of service came in at different rates from the same supplier over consecutive months (sometimes drifting significantly) without triggering any review. But individual invoices passed accuracy checks and so the trend was invisible.
Spend concentration that looked fine at the category level but represented real operational risk at the supplier level. One large operator discovered, once their data was properly connected, that a meaningful portion of a critical service category was concentrated with a single provider who had compliance issues flagged in a separate part of the organization. No single system had shown them that combination of facts.
In each of these cases, the invoices were accurate and the payments were processed correctly. However, real value was still being lost, and sometimes real risk was being carried, because accuracy and intelligence connected to spend patterns achieve different business outcomes.
The Intelligence Layer
The shift from accuracy to intelligence is not about replacing what finance teams have built. The workflow discipline, the exception management, the automation — that foundation matters and should keep getting stronger. What changes is what gets built on top of it.
An intelligence layer connects what the invoice system knows with what the contract system knows, what the ordering system knows, and what the broader market knows. It looks across transactions and surfaces patterns that no individual approver would catch because the signal is distributed across hundreds or thousands of invoices, multiple suppliers, and a range of service categories.
The most important characteristic of that intelligence layer is that it operates continuously, not retrospectively. The value of spend insight decays quickly in upstream oil and gas. A pricing trend that matters today may not matter the same way in three months. A contract approaching expiration needs attention before it expires, not after. A supplier whose performance metrics are moving in the wrong direction is better addressed early, not when a compliance event forces the issue.
That requires a system that is watching, not one that produces reports when someone thinks to run them.
What Finance Leadership Actually Needs
At our recent Evolve conference this spring, a VP of supply chain at one of our largest operator customers put it plainly. They said they wanted their team to walk in every morning and immediately see the things that were driving cost, creating risk, or needing attention. Not a dashboard to navigate. Not a report from last week but a live, connected view of what matters right now.
That is a finance leadership need as much as it’s a supply chain need. The questions that matter at the leadership level require connected data and a system intelligent enough to surface the right signal at the right time: Where is spend tracking relative to plan? Which contracts are performing as negotiated? Where are the risks that are not yet visible in the numbers?
Finance teams that are still measuring success primarily by invoice accuracy are solving a necessary problem, but not the complete one. The complete problem is understanding spend across the full lifecycle: from what was sourced and contracted, through how it was ordered and executed, to how it was billed and paid. That lifecycle view is where real control lives, and where real savings are found or lost.
Connecting the Lifecycle
The practical path from accuracy to intelligence runs through connection. It requires that the data from sourcing, contracting, field execution, ticketing, and invoicing live in a shared environment where it can be analyzed together, not in isolation.
That said, invoice accuracy is the floor. It’s necessary, and the discipline operators have built around it is real and worth protecting, but finance leadership in upstream oil and gas needs more than a clean set of books. They need to understand what the spend is actually telling them, where the risk is building, and whether the value that was negotiated is actually being captured.
That is what spend intelligence does. And it starts with connecting the data that already exists across the source-to-pay lifecycle.
The technical fundamentals of renewable siting are largely known and well accounted for. Solar irradiance, wind resources, land availability, grid proximity: developers have good data on all of these. But the projects that stall, blow past development timelines, or quietly get suspended after millions in sunk cost almost always fail on something the surface-level resource data cannot tell you. They fail on the local regulatory posture, the permitting friction, and the community opposition that shows up at county commission meetings six months after you have signed your land lease.
The industry has gotten good at answering “can we build here?”. It hasn’t kept pace on “will they let us?”.
Example: Lincoln County, Nebraska
Lincoln County, Nebraska has two Wind Moratoriums and one wind ordinance on record. For a developer running early-stage screening, that signal alone can redirect focus before time and capital are spent on a county where the path to permits is structurally blocked.
Turning Project History Into a Siting Signal
This gap in siting knowledge is what our new Renewable Sentiment tool addresses. The tool aggregates nearly a decade of proprietary project outcome data across the U.S. renewable development landscape, including interconnection queue entries, construction timelines, suspension rates, withdrawal patterns, and in-service completions.
Layered on top of that is a continuously updated collection of public regulatory signals, news, local moratorium and ban tracking, permitting decisions, governmental research like NREL, and years of analyst notes from internal project monitoring. We combine these inputs into county-level composite scores that helps capture and assign values to whether a given county has historically been a friendly or hostile environment for getting a renewable project from application to operation, and why.
A county where 70% of historical proposed projects by capacity have been suspended or withdrawn tells a fundamentally different story than one where projects routinely move from planning through construction on schedule. That distinction is invisible in any interconnection queue snapshot or resource assessment map, but it can surface insights that technical specifications and public data sources alone won’t reveal.
Who Uses It and How
For developers and power producers, the primary use case is early-stage site screening. Before committing development capital to a greenfield project, or drilling down into specific parcels, you can now overlay sentiment scoring against your resource and land analysis to filter out counties where the regulatory and community environment is historically likely to create delays or kill the project outright.
For utilities and transmission planners, understanding where renewable generation is likely to actually materialize (not just where it has been proposed) directly informs load forecasting, interconnection upgrade prioritization, and long-range transmission planning. A county with strong sentiment and an active construction pipeline is a county where you should be planning grid capacity. A county with a growing moratorium trend and rising suspension rates is one where a backlog of queued solar probably won’t fully materialize.
This view supplements our robust project-level data with social and regulatory sentiment that has historically been difficult to incorporate during the siting process, or when viewing projects at the county level.
Where It Fits in the Site Screening Workflow
Renewable Sentiment is live in Enverus PRISM® for customers with Parcels and Suitable Land Analytics. No setup required. Quickly flag siting risk and community sentiment as part of your existing land workflow.
Within our broader Enverus platform, sentiment scoring serves as the human and regulatory intelligence layer alongside the physical infrastructure data we already track. We map the substations, transmission lines, and interconnection queues. Sentiment scoring maps the political, regulatory, and community environment that factor into whether planned projects become built projects. Our first release expands current offerings and workflows, while complementing them with derived insights on top of our project data.Areas of active improvement include expanding the scoring methodology to incorporate additional signals like local incentive structures, permitting and timeline requirements, as well as timeline view that tracks whether a county’s posture is trending better or worse over time.
At its core, the Renewable Sentiment tool exists because the local environment where you build matters as much as what you build. The best resource in the country doesn’t help if the county will not let you pour concrete. Pairing Renewable Sentiment with our existing PRISM tools provides an additional view to help surface risks and opportunities that live outside the spreadsheet and give our users a more complete picture of what they are walking into before the first dollar is spent
CALGARY, Alberta (June 17, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has published its latest report, At the Cap, Below CONE | Why PJM’s Capacity Market Needs a Reset, which examines the capital-cost and capacity-price environment required to support new combined-cycle gas turbine development in PJM.
The report finds that capital costs for new CCGTs have increased from approximately $1,000/kW before 2024 to $2,000-$3,000/kW today, materially changing project finance feasibility. Under EIR’s base-case assumptions, merchant project returns in PJM fall below 10% at $2,000/kW or higher, while debt service coverage ratios become tight under current market conditions.
EIR’s analysis also indicates that long-duration bilateral contracts could improve financeability for some projects, particularly at a $2,000/kW capital cost. However, at $2,500/kW and above, economics remain challenged even when capacity prices are held at PJM’s current cap for the first 15 years of a project’s life. A separate sensitivity on a $2,500/kW plant suggests capacity pricing of approximately $500/MW-day would be required to bring project returns and DSCRs into commercially financeable territory, above PJM’s current cap of $333.44/MW-day.
“PJM needs new dispatchable capacity, but the economics of building it have moved faster than the market design. At today’s capital costs, even strong operating assumptions and elevated capacity prices leave a narrow path to financeable new gas development. The implication is that bilateral contracts and capacity-market parameters will need to reflect the true cost of new entry, or developers may continue to favor existing assets over greenfield projects,” said Scott Wilmot, report author and principal analyst at EIR.
Key takeaways:
Capital costs for new CCGTs have increased from roughly $1,000/kW before 2024 to $2,000-$3,000/kW today.
Under EIR’s base case, a 1 GW PJM CCGT with a July 2028 COD, 75% capacity factor and $30/MWh spark spread sees returns fall below 10% at $2,000/kW or higher.
In a high-capacity-price case with PJM capacity prices held at the current cap for the first 15 years, $2,000/kW projects approach bankable territory, while projects above $2,500/kW remain challenged.
For a $2,500/kW newbuild CCGT, EIR estimates approximately $500/MW-day in capacity pricing would be needed to support commercially financeable economics.
EIR expects many data center projects could be built off-grid if PJM’s auction cap is not raised to reflect the current cost of new entry.
Note | DSCR and Project return for a $2,500/kW PJM CCGT across capacity price scenarios of $100-$600/MW-day. All other assumptions consistent with Figure 1. Source | Enverus Intelligence® Research
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE.
You must be an Enverus Intelligence® Research subscriber to access this report.
EIR research reports cannot be distributed to members of the media without a scheduled interview. Journalists interested in learning more about this analysis are encouraged to use our Request Media Interview button to schedule a time to meet with one of our expert analysts, who can provide context, insight, and deeper discussion of the findings.
About Enverus Intelligence® Research Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
CALGARY, Alberta (June 16, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has published a new report on load growth in Texas, ERCOT Large Load | Batch Zero Readiness.
The report assesses ERCOT’s Batch Zero qualification as a stringent, project-level readiness filter tied to near-term deadlines, including July 10 for legacy Large Load Interconnection Study (LLIS) approvals and July 15 for financial-security posting and project information submission.
Using a proprietary 197-project universe and 12-signal readiness matrix, EIR estimates 55 large-load projects totaling 21.7 GW will be included in Batch Zero. EIR also screens 62 projects (37 GW) into Batch 1+. In addition, the report identifies a cohort of 23 projects (~12 GW) that have bypassed the queue via behind-the-meter (BTM) generation.
EIR highlights that qualification incentives and hurdles are shaped in part by the $50,000/MW security requirement described in the report.
“Batch Zero is effectively a readiness gate with firm near-term deadlines and a meaningful financial-security requirement,” said Juan Arteaga, PhD, report author and principal analyst at EIR. “Our screening suggests a concentrated set of projects is positioned to qualify, but developers still face practical execution considerations, including the need to post security and submit required project information on time, alongside site-specific constraints that can affect energization timelines.”
Key takeaways:
EIR expects 55 projects (21.7 GW) to clear Batch Zero qualification; 62 projects (37 GW) screen into Batch 1+.
Timing milestones cited in the report include July 10 (legacy LLIS approvals) and July 15 (project information submission and financial security posting).
The report segments the large-load universe into categories including Base Load (57 operating projects, ~17 GW), Study Load applicants (62 projects, ~28 GW), and a set of projects that lack a signed IA and are likely deferred to a future batch.
It also identifies 23 projects (~12 GW) pursuing BTM generation as a structural alternative to interconnection constraints.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE.
You must be an Enverus Intelligence® Research subscriber to access this report.
EIR research reports cannot be distributed to members of the media without a scheduled interview. Journalists interested in learning more about this analysis are encouraged to use our Request Media Interview button to schedule a time to meet with one of our expert analysts, who can provide context, insight, and deeper discussion of the findings.
About Enverus Intelligence® Research Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
BP’s restructuring and continued North American capital shifts anchored a week defined by portfolio concentration and infrastructure expansion.
Top Stories
BP to begin operating under simplified structure July 1 BP is consolidating into upstream and downstream segments effective July 1 to streamline decision-making. The move advances its shift toward a more focused oil and gas strategy and aims to improve execution across global operations.
Devon vows to focus post-merger portfolio on Delaware Devon is prioritizing its Delaware Basin position following its merger with Coterra while evaluating divestments, including potential Marcellus sales. The approach concentrates capital in higher-return assets and reshapes the combined portfolio.
APA aims to increase pace in Alaska with $70MM Savant buy APA is acquiring Savant Alaska assets for about $70MM to gain control of infrastructure including pipelines and facilities. The deal improves development flexibility and is expected to lower costs while accelerating activity in the region.
Trans Mountain fully utilized for first time since expansion The Trans Mountain pipeline reached full capacity utilization for the first time since its expansion. The milestone tightens takeaway capacity and supports increased Canadian crude flows to global markets alongside strong oil sands production.
Sempra turns on 2.0 Bcf/d Louisiana Connector to Port Arthur LNG Sempra placed its 2.0 Bcf/d Louisiana Connector pipeline into service to supply feedgas to Port Arthur LNG. The project strengthens infrastructure supporting U.S. LNG export growth and connects upstream supply to Gulf Coast liquefaction capacity.
Additional Stories
Also this week: Expand cuts Appalachia rigs; Mach shifts toward oil plays; Suncor posts record output; Delfin secures $3.6B LNG financing; Ksi Lisims adds buyers; SLB expands with PDVSA and offshore work; Stark Power acquires data center portfolio; Jericho advances AI-linked infrastructure.
In its latest outlook, EIR argues that the market’s focus on diplomacy risks underestimating the inventory damage already incurred from the Strait of Hormuz disruption. EIR’s balance modeling shows OECD crude and product stocks drawing sharply through 2026, with inventories falling from 2.82 Bbbl at year-end 2025 to a 2.36 Bbbl trough in Q4 2026—an outcome EIR characterizes as an unprecedented 20-year low.
In EIR’s base case, Brent averages $110/bbl in H2, peaks near $117/bbl in Q4, and does not fall below $100/bbl until 3Q27, with year-end 2027 settling only in the mid-$90s as flows normalize and the rebuild begins.
“The key takeaway in our modeling is that the inventory ‘stock hole’ can outlast the headline. Even if diplomacy advances, OECD stocks are projected to bottom at levels that historically correlate with stronger prices. Furthermore, we think the crisis likely leaves behind a more durable geopolitical premium that doesn’t fully get unpriced,” said report author and EIR director Al Salazar.
Key takeaways:
OECD inventory trough: OECD crude and product stocks fall from 2.82 Bbbl (YE25) to a 2.36 Bbbl trough in Q4 2026.
Base-case price path: Brent averages $110/bbl in H2, peaks near $117/bbl in Q4, and does not fall below $100/bbl until 3Q27 in the base case.
Embedded premium risk: A $5–$10/bbl geopolitical risk premium is considered likely to become embedded in oil prices following the closure precedent.
Delay sensitivity: Each additional month of disruption adds roughly $10–$15/bbl to the H2 Brent average in the sensitivity framework.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE.
You must be an Enverus Intelligence® Research subscriber to access this report.
EIR research reports cannot be distributed to members of the media without a scheduled interview. Journalists interested in learning more about this analysis are encouraged to use our Request Media Interview button to schedule a time to meet with one of our expert analysts, who can provide context, insight, and deeper discussion of the findings.
About Enverus Intelligence® Research Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
CALGARY, Alberta (June 9, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has published its latest Fundamental Edge report, Let’s Make a Deal | Brent Upgrade, Henry Downgrade, examining how shifting geopolitics and supply-demand dynamics are reshaping oil and gas price expectations.
In the report, EIR raised its 2H26 Brent forecast to $110/bbl (from $95/bbl), based on a scenario in which a U.S.-Iran peace deal is reached by end of June, allowing the Strait of Hormuz to begin reopening shortly thereafter. The analysis notes the initial market reaction to a deal announcement could be bearish but maintains that underlying support comes from inventories that remain well below prewar levels.
The updated outlook assumes a more conservative ramp-up of flows through the strait that extends into 1Q27, with throughput modeled to recover from roughly ~2 MMbbl/d today and rise steadily to 16 MMbbl/d by 2027—still below the 20 MMbbl/d prewar level. Against this backdrop, cumulative stock draws are expected to keep OECD inventories near ~2.3 Bbbl through 2H26, a level the report’s stocks-to-price relationship implies is consistent with ~$110/bbl Brent, alongside modeled ~500 Mbbl/d Y/Y demand loss in 2026 from sustained price elevation.
For 2027, EIR’s forecast calls for Brent to average $105/bbl, reflecting gradual normalization of flows but continued support from low stocks. The report also points to a firmer—though still constrained—U.S. supply response, lifting expectations for Lower 48 oil growth to ~300 Mbbl/d by exit-2026 and ~500 Mbbl/d by exit-2027, with the Permian Basin driving growth and infrastructure bottlenecks remaining a key limiter.
“Even with a path toward reopening, the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t snap back overnight and the market doesn’t get its inventory cushion back quickly either. Our update is a ‘higher-for-longer’ call: the headline may move first, but low stocks and a gradual normalization keep Brent supported well into 2027,” said Al Salazar, report author and director at EIR.
Key takeaways:
The latest report raises the 2H26 Brent forecast to $110/bbl (from $95/bbl) on a base case that a U.S.-Iran peace deal is reached by end of June and the Strait of Hormuz begins reopening, with the ramp-up extending into 1Q27.
The outlook models Hormuz throughput recovering from ~2 MMbbl/d today and ramping to 16 MMbbl/d by 2027, below the 20 MMbbl/d prewar level, with some rerouted flows expected to become permanent.
For 2027, the forecast calls for Brent to average $105/bbl, supported by inventories that remain well below prewar levels and ongoing strategic reserve refill demand referenced in the long-term framing.
The report lifts U.S. supply expectations to ~300 Mbbl/d exit-2026 and ~500 Mbbl/d exit-2027 Lower 48 oil growth, driven by stronger activity and a higher Brent deck, with the Permian as the primary contributor.
On U.S. natural gas, the analysis maintains a $3.00/MMBtu Henry Hub forecast for summer 2026 and lowers the 2027 forecast to $3.50/MMBtu (from $3.75/MMBtu), citing increased associated gas supply tied to higher oil prices and a warmer El Niño setup for winter 2026-27.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
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