Analyst Takes Blog Topics

Iran After the Strikes: Is the Oil Market Entering a New Phase of Stability?

byAl Salazar, Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) Contributor

In reaction to news of U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Al Salazar, director at Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), released this statement explaining the significance on oil prices:

“The U.S. first accused Iran of attempting to make nuclear weapons in December 2002. Since then, Iran’s pursuit of nuclear arms has caused deep bouts of insecurity and concern for the Middle East.

In terms of oil markets, Iranian oil supply has been targeted over the past two decades by Western sanctions. Meanwhile, Iran has always had its “pinch-point” of last resort – the Strait of Hormuz – should the country decide to exert maximum oil supply leverage against its foes. The above can be described as ever on-going “strings-attached” or conditions to Iranian oil supply.

With President Trump’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, it appears the country is no longer a nuclear threat, but what about the conditions on Iranian supply?

Enverus Intelligence® Research reaffirms its position oil prices will naturally have a bullish knee-jerk reaction to such instability. If there is no material and extended loss of supply, the bullish enthusiasm will fade. Conversely, should there be “a pinching of the oil trade” in the Strait, quick military intervention seems certain to solve constraints and possible shipper concerns. It is never in greater global interest for oil to be priced at ~$150/bbl or higher.

There is no disputing the near-term bullish risk. However, EIR suggests such developments bring a less-discussed bearish skew to medium- and long-term oil prices: stable Iranian supply. With the strikes this past weekend, the need to further sanction Iranian oil has diminished. Furthermore, the possibility of a regime change could eventually subdue the geopolitical risks that have plagued the country’s production for decades. One needs only to look at Iraq, Iran’s neighbor, for a salutary lesson about the impacts of a change in governance. That country’s production has expanded ~3 MMbbl/d over the same ~20-year period since the U.S. and allies ended Saddam Hussein’s reign.”

About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

Picture of Al Salazar, Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) Contributor

Al Salazar, Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) Contributor

Al Salazar is a seasoned member of the Enverus Intelligence team, bringing more than 23 years of experience in the energy industry with a focus on fundamental analysis of oil, natural gas and power. Throughout his career, Al has held key positions at EnCana/Cenovus and Suncor, where he honed his skills in forecasting, hedging and corporate strategy. Al’s 15-year tenure at EnCana/Cenovus was particularly impactful, where he contributed significantly to the company’s success. Al earned his bachelor’s degree in Applied Energy Economics from the University of Calgary in 2000, followed by an MBA with honors from Syracuse University in 2007. Al’s academic background, coupled with his extensive professional experience, has equipped him with a deep understanding of the energy industry’s complexities and the necessary skills to navigate them effectively.

Related News

Class VI comeback Applications rebound in Q2
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) has published the latest installment in its quarterly report series tracking developments in U.S. carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) initiatives.

Crescent Nabs Vital in $3.1 billion Corporate Sale
Analyst Takes News Release
ByAndrew Dittmar

Announcing the first merger of U.S. upstream operators since crude prices tumbled in April, Crescent Energy is purchasing Permian operator Vital Energy for $3.1 billion inclusive of net debt in a stock-for-stock swap. Andrew Dittmar, principal analyst at Enverus Intelligence®...

Pinpointing the resilient few in a post-OBBBA era
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) has released an evaluation on which renewable asset owners have the most resilient queued portfolios across the Lower 48 following the signing of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act.

Clean fuels a mixed bag on OBBBA’s winners and losers list
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), has released a report examining how revisions to the 45Z and 45V production tax credits (PTC) under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could affect clean fuel production projects.

70+ GW of retired coal capacity holds key to fast-track clean power
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR)) has released a report on repowering retired coal plants in order to accelerate clean, dispatchable capacity deployment.

Summer builds cool bullish thoughts
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) has released its latest Fundamental Edge report.

Blackstone announces agreement to acquire Enverus
News Release
ByEnverus

Blackstone (NYSE: BX) announced today that private equity funds affiliated with Blackstone (“Blackstone”) have entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Enverus, a premier data analytics energy intelligence platform, from Hellman & Friedman and Genstar Capital.

Making enhanced oil recovery great again: OBBA 45Q tax credit shift cuts E&P costs by 40%
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) has released a report accessing how the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) impacts the the equalization of 45Q tax credits, especially as it enhances the economics of carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO₂-EOR.)

Enverus Intelligence Research is releasing its summary of 2Q2025 upstream M&A activity and outlook for the rest of the year.
News Release
ByEnverus

Calgary, Alberta (July 23, 2025) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, is releasing its summary of 2Q2025 upstream M&A activity and outlook for the...

Find Out How Enverus Can Help Your Business

Subscribe to the Energy Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Get Started

Sign up for our Blog

Register Today

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert