The following blog is distilled from Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) reports.
The oil and gas market is entering a period where clarity matters more than ever. Prices are flattening, development is steadying, and operators are looking for ways to preserve capital efficiency while keeping activity moving. The latest Enverus Intelligence® Research Fundamental Edge report (available to subscribers here) points to a year ahead defined by softer commodity prices, uncertainty in gas markets, and steady global supply that raises the bar on operational discipline.
For operators, this environment raises a straightforward question: how do you protect margins and maintain momentum when the price tailwinds of prior years are no longer guaranteed?
A closer look at the fundamentals helps set the stage.
Key Takeaways:
How are shifting oil and gas fundamentals shaping operator priorities in 2026?
- Strong oil demand growth, near‑term pricing pressure, and rising LNG momentum are pushing operators to focus more on capital discipline and operational efficiency.
Why is efficiency becoming more important even as long‑term demand expectations hold steady?
- With near‑term prices under pressure and activity leveling off, operators are concentrating on reducing manual work, tightening spend control, and improving visibility into service costs.
How can operators respond effectively to the challenges highlighted in the 2026 outlook?
- Integrated price books, ticketing, and invoicing help eliminate spend uncertainty and streamline operations, giving teams clearer insight and control as margins tighten.
Oil prices are losing some lift in 2026
Global balances suggest Brent will average $58/bbl in 2026, with the outlook now reflecting a revised $60/bbl forecast for the first quarter of 2026 due to instability in Iran and U.S. weather related outages. This seasonal demand is expected to pull back by one to two million barrels per day from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026. OECD inventories could climb toward three billion barrels, creating downward pressure until that overhang burns off.
At the same time, OPEC production is testing the upper end of its historical range. Based on a three month average, OPEC 12 output is only about 1.2 million barrels per day below its all time high, which is essentially one to two years of typical demand growth. Any ramp up in production this year is unlikely to match the growth experienced last year for this reason.
That said, longer term demand expectations have actually strengthened. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest outlook raises demand projections for 2030 and now exceeds the outlook from Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR). Momentum behind the “peak demand by 2030” narrative has moderated. But none of this changes the immediate reality that 2026 will be a year where operators face pricing pressure.
Gas markets are wrestling with their own uncertainty
Gas markets are experiencing their own form of tension. Recent rallies tied to colder weather expectations and shifts in global LNG trade patterns have pushed prices above what historical storage relationships would typically support.
Some of this reflects structural factors. Global LNG markets are adjusting to sanctions, evolving trade routes, and strong long‑term demand from Europe and Asia. The premium levels now seen resemble periods of disruption during 2022 and 2024. Whether these premiums prove durable will depend largely on winter weather and the pace of US supply growth.
Production growth slows and activity levels respond
In the Lower 48, production growth is expected to moderate. Near‑term gains supported by efficiency improvements and long‑lead offshore projects set the stage for a decrease in oil production as pricing pressure builds. Most shale regions are positioned for slower activity, with the Permian flattening after several years of strong performance.
Rig trends reflect a cautious stance. Some basins have seen modest increases, but many operators, particularly publics, continue to manage activity conservatively. This mirrors a broader shift toward disciplined capital allocation until pricing conditions improve.
Efficiency becomes the battleground for performance
Taken together, these market signals point toward an environment where efficiency carries more weight than at any time in recent memory. Operators are already well‑versed in running lean, but the next frontier involves improving how work moves across teams, how spend is tracked, and how quickly field and office information connects.
Manual processes that once felt manageable now create real friction. Variations in service pricing, slow ticket routing, lagged invoice reconciliation, and limited visibility into field‑level spend all take a larger toll when margins thin. The companies that can close these gaps will be positioned to outperform even in a softer market.
Where connected S2P capabilities fit in
The goal is not simply to reduce costs. It is to create a clearer, more controlled view of spending, improve operational predictability, and free up teams to focus on the work that drives production instead of paperwork. Tools that tie together price books, ticketing, invoicing, and supplier workflows support that philosophy by reducing rework, shortening payment cycles, and giving operators a unified view of their service activity.
As 2026 approaches, the fundamentals tell us that the margin for operational inefficiency will shrink. Companies that use this phase of the cycle to modernize their execution systems will be in a stronger position when prices firm up later in the decade. The operators that get ahead of this shift will not just save money. They will build a more resilient, transparent, and scalable operating model for whatever the next cycle brings.
About Enverus Intelligence® | Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macro-economic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies, and capital providers worldwide. See additional disclosures here.
