Rising electricity demand is fueling independent system operator (ISO) interconnection requests and power prices across the Lower 48 — making it one of today’s hottest energy topics. Add the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s tax credit changes for solar, wind and EVs, and the need becomes clear: Transparency is critical to discern which projected load drivers will truly materialize — and which may be over- or underhyped.
Data centers remain a major source of demand, but expectations often outpace reality. A recent Google report measuring energy use from Gemini prompts found that, over a 12-month period, the energy and total carbon footprint of the median Gemini apps’ text prompt dropped by 33 times and 44 times, respectively — all while delivering higher-quality responses. This kind of data underscores the need for a grounded view of what future demand will actually look like.
That’s exactly what Enverus Intelligence® Research has done in the latest update to our long-term hourly load forecast. For the first time, users can build a customized outlook in minutes. We’ve refined assumptions across key drivers — including data centers, EVs, crypto mining and more — and built five scenarios ranging from extreme low to extreme high. The updated forecast reveals sharp differences from PJM and ERCOT projections, with ERCOT’s 66% higher than our base case, driven by inflated expectations for data center growth (Figure 1).
Research Highlights:
- Chasing Connection – Interconnection Timelines and Economics Post-OBBBA – This white paper for POWER Magazine outlines the state of the interconnection queue, project timelines, delays and project economics following the passing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. We examine the impacts on project economics and feasibility as tax credit timelines grow closer and projects rush to connect.
- Long-Term Load Forecast – Five Futures of the Grid – Our new automated load forecasting workflow analyzes scenarios that incorporate revisions from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and considers future policy changes and risks.
- Load Forecast Benchmarking – ISO Reality Check – This report presents Enverus Intelligence® Research’s perspective on how exponential load drivers will impact our power demand forecasts from 2025 to 2050.
DID YOU KNOW?
Oklo, one of 11 firms tapped for the Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot Program, is developing a self-stabilizing microreactor that uses passive heat transfer and eliminates pumps and valves in its sealed core — resulting in minimal mechanical noise.
About Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR)
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macroeconomic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies, and capital providers worldwide. See additional disclosures here.
