Texas Data Center Moratorium | Big Bark, No Bite

Texas just “slammed” the brakes on data center approvals with Governor Abbott’s “moratorium.” He’s asked ERCOT and PUCT to audit every project entering the interconnection queue on tax breaks, power, water and cooling, community impact, and ownership. But half these asks are already baked into the interconnection study, and the two that aren’t, tax breaks and community impact, don’t affect whether a project can safely connect to the grid. Meanwhile, ERCOT is already working through the existing queue via Batch Zero to speed up interconnection for projects that are ready to connect.

So who loses sleep? Nobody serious. The queue already stretches to 2050, with data centers as the single biggest driver of load growth. EIR estimates ~12 GW of high-confidence load sitting in ERCOT’s queue from data centers (FIGURE 1). Well-capitalized developers are already clearing the stringent queue requirements and won’t have any trouble getting through the audit. The ones with something to worry about are the speculative projects clogging the queue, and this audit will help clean them out. And every extra day of grid uncertainty is a nudge behind the meter, so expect this to pour fuel on BTM and co-located generation that skips the queue entirely.

Research Highlights:

• 3Q26 Long-Term Load Forecast – Gone Behind the Meter – This report encompasses Enverus Intelligence® Research’s view on how exponential load drivers will impact our power demand forecasts from 2025-50.
• The Long and Short of Ut(ilities) – Utility Compass 3Q26 – We screen regulated utilities by comparing the market’s Gordon-implied dividend growth against the load growth we forecast in each service territory, on the thesis that demand exposure is a good predictor of earnings growth.
• Class VI Update 2Q26 – Submissions Dry Up, Withdrawals Pile Up – In this quarterly report series, Enverus Intelligence® Research provides an overview of recent changes to Class VI wells associated with CCUS project in the U.S. Leveraging the Enverus FOUNDATIONS® – Carbon Innovation Wells database, we cover new Class VI applications, changes to permit status, permit approvals and newly disclosed project details.

Top Three Takeaways:

1: What does Texas’s data center moratorium actually audit?

Governor Abbott has asked ERCOT and PUCT to audit every project entering the interconnection queue on tax breaks, power, water and cooling, community impact, and ownership. Half of those items are already covered by the interconnection study, and the remaining two, tax breaks and community impact, don’t affect whether a project can safely connect to the grid. ERCOT continues moving qualified projects through the queue via Batch Zero in the meantime.

2: Will the audit slow down well-capitalized data center developers?

No. Well-capitalized developers are already clearing the stringent queue requirements and won’t have trouble getting through the audit. The projects at risk are the speculative ones clogging the queue, and the audit should help clear them out.

3: How much data center load is sitting in ERCOT’s queue, and what happens if grid uncertainty grows?

EIR estimates roughly 12 GW of high-confidence data center load sitting in ERCOT’s interconnection queue, which already stretches to 2050. Every extra day of grid uncertainty nudges more developers toward behind-the-meter and co-located generation that bypasses the queue entirely.