Announcements have become a useful measure of where electricity demand may go, but they do not tell us when those loads will reach the grid. Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), using PRISM® Large Load Data, tracks capacity in three stages: operating, under construction and announced.
Across PJM, the October report lists 30.0 GW operating, 28.5 GW under construction and 113.6 GW announced. The reported total is 172.2 GW; the components differ by 0.1 GW because of rounding. Announced capacity is almost four times the amount under construction, a gap that makes timing central to the region’s demand outlook.
Virginia shows how wide the gap can be
Virginia has 44 GW of announced large-load capacity and 8 GW under construction, according to our datasets. That is a 5.5-to-1 difference. The announced figure is a pipeline indicator, while the construction figure describes projects that have moved further along. EIR says the gap raises questions about when announced projects may be realized and whether transmission capacity will be available.
The figures give planners and market participants a reason to look beyond headline demand totals. The pace of actual construction, energization and transmission work will determine how quickly a project pipeline becomes load on the system.
Selected PJM large-load capacity by status
Capacity shortfalls put the pipeline in focus
PJM’s two most recent Base Residual Auctions cleared below the region’s reliability requirement. EIR’s report cites shortfalls of about 6,517 MW for the 2027/28 delivery year and 6,831 MW for 2028/29. PJM proposed a Reliability Backstop Procurement to address the later shortfall. The original proposal described in the report included contracts of up to 15 years and a maximum willingness to pay of $555 per MW-day.
The schedule in the October 8 report has since changed. Following FERC’s September 29 order, PJM said it would not begin the procurement on September 30 as planned and would review the previously announced milestones. At the October 22 Members Committee meeting, PJM sought stakeholder input on revisions to its tariff filing. The early-December results date in the report reflects the original schedule.
What to watch next
The next signals are whether announced projects move into construction, how quickly projects already underway reach operation, and what transmission upgrades can support. EIR’s report provides a state-by-state view of large-load status alongside interactive maps and project tables for generation projects under construction and in pre-construction. Those details help readers compare what is being proposed with the projects moving through development.
For the state-by-state load view, interactive project maps and full project tables, explore the report.
About Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR)
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macroeconomic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies, and capital providers worldwide. See additional disclosures here.
